All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

Sign up for the BEST STATS DATABASE for DFS Golf at fantasynational.com/dfskarma

Course: TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, MN

Fast Facts

• Par 71, 7400 yards
• Average Cut: -2/-3
• Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses:
  • Detroit Golf Club
  • PGA National
  • Silverado Resort & Spa
  • TPC Deere Run
  • TPC San Antonio
  • TPC Summerlin
• Top Course Fit Targets: Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Cameron Tringale, Adam Hadwin, Hideki Matsuyama, Maverick McNealy, Cameron Davis, Ryan Moore, Martin Laird, Matthias Schwab

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+ yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT
• SG: Par 5s
• Opportunities Gained
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)

Overview – Top 10 in Sam’s Stat Model (Full Field) // Top 10 in middle and lower pricing tiers

Overview – Top 10 DK Values // Top 10 Course History // Top 10 pOWN% (Full Field)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above (12 players):

Plays

1) Davis Riley ($9,000) → pOWN%: 27%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 5^th
• SG: Approach (175+ emphasis) → 3^rd
• BoB Gained → 20^th
• SG: OTT → 8^th
• SG: Par 5s → 69^th (nice)
• Opportunities Gained → 4^th
• SG: Putting → 25^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 64^th // 31^st // 13^th // 4^th // 13^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 70^th

Notes: Will be mega chalk, but it seems semi-justified (semi only because he could push 25-30%) but he’s made 7 straight cuts with a T9/T5/T4/T13 in 4 of those 7 with his most recent of T64 due almost entirely to an impressive EIGHT STROKES LOST PUTTING… that’s some Lucas Glover shit right there; gained on APP in 5 straight measured events, gained strokes T2G in 9 of his last 10 events, and if he can make enough putts, he’s very live to win

2) Cam Davis ($8,900) → pOWN%: 24%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 16^th
• SG: Approach (175+ emphasis) → 8^th
• BoB Gained → 5^th
• SG: OTT → 10^th
• SG: Par 5s → 14^th
• Opportunities Gained → 18^th
• SG: Putting → 18^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 6^th // 8^th // 56^th // 53^rd // 7^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 28^th // 12^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: Comes in with terrific form, back to back T6/T8 finishes, and has 4 T10 or better finishes in his last 8 starts on TOUR; he has the distance, has gained on APP in 9 of last 10 events, and his biggest weakness (by far) in his ARG play should be mitigated here (at least if he wants to win); much improved with the putter as Bent is his best surface and overall he’s gained strokes putting in all but 2 events in 2022 (13 out of 15); made last 2 cuts at TPC Twin Cities with a T12 in 2020

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300) → pOWN%: 16%

• SG: T2G → 11^th
• SG: Approach (175+ emphasis) → 1^st
• BoB Gained → 17^th
• SG: OTT → 20^th
• SG: Par 5s → 63^rd
• Opportunities Gained → 7^th
• SG: Putting → 137^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 68^th // MC // 4^th // 60^th // 3^rd  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 7^th   

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Course Fit Rank: 5^th

Notes: Not really a low owned pivot at all but with the top heavy field I don’t love many options at 8500 or above that WON’T be high owned… rumors of going to the LIV and a mediocre Open Championship should keep him somewhat lower pOWN% (at least compared to Finau/Riley, etc) but the stats, as always, are pristine as he’s 1^st in the field in SG: APP and Top 20 in T2G, Ball Striking, OTT, Bogey Avoidance, BoB Gained, and Opps. Gained… has the highest ceiling of anyone in the field but does come with volatility

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Tony Finau → pOWN%: 30+%

Maverick McNealy → pOWN%: 22%

Adam Long → pOWN%: 18%

Mid-Tier Options – 7.0K to 8.4K (45 players):

Plays

1) Brendan Steele ($8,300) → pOWN%: 20%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 1^st
• SG: Approach (175+ emphasis) → 5^th
• BoB Gained → 26^th
• SG: OTT → 1^st
• SG: Par 5s → 54^th
• Opportunities Gained → 1^st
• SG: Putting → 91^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 25^th // 10^th // 9^th // 51^st // 48^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 53^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 31^st

Notes: I’m all over the chalk this week, which will turn out poorly; nevertheless, I love the spot for Steele, and he feels underpriced for the field… 1^st T2G, 1^st Ball Striking, 5^th SG: APP, 1^st SG: OTT, 1^st Opps. Gained, 1^st GIRs Gained and as always he just needs a spike putting week… Steele has made 7 straight cuts on TOUR with 5 T26 finishes or better in that span, has gained T2G in 8 straight, gained OTT in 11 straight, and gained on APP in 8 of his last 10… all the stats are there, he just needs to not bleed a million strokes on the greens

2) Joohyung Kim ($7,300) → pOWN%: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 74^th
• SG: Approach (175+ emphasis) → 37^th
• BoB Gained → 65^th
• SG: OTT → 76^th
• SG: Par 5s → 47^th
• Opportunities Gained → 67^th
• SG: Putting → 37^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 47^th // 3^rd // 23^rd // MC // 17^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: N/A

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 99^th

Notes: Not looking too much at the stats here with so few PGA events under his belt but this kid looks like the real deal and maybe we all get burned, but 7300 could be way, way too cheap… finished T23 at the US Open, finished 3^rd at the Genesis Scottish Open, made the cut last week at the Open and albeit much weaker fields, on the Asian Tour this year Kim has a win, 2 T2s, 3 T5s, and he’s now up to the 40^th ranked player in the world yet only 7300… I’ll take the risk in SE/cash games given what we’ve seen

3) Nate Lashley ($7,000) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 44^th
• SG: Approach (175+ emphasis) → 77^th
• BoB Gained → 12^th
• SG: OTT → 41^st
• SG: Par 5s → 81^st
• Opportunities Gained → 90^th
• SG: Putting → 71^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – MC // 25^th // MC // MC // 17^th     

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 29^th

Notes: Lashley keeps burning me and I keep going back… 3 MC in last 4 but the stats show some potential upside as the putter has been improved and similar to Cam Davis, his horrendous ARG game shouldn’t kill him at this course (again, if he wants to be relevant)… gained OTT in 5 of his last 6, gained T2G in 3 of his last 6, and at only 7k and recent finishes of either T27/better or a MC, the risk is worth the reward if you can stomach a MC… in his last 11 starts Lashley has finishes of T7/T27/T15/T18/T11/T17/T25 as well as 4 MC (the weeks I’ve played him)

Favorite Low(er) Owned Pivot

1) Michael Gliglic ($7,000) → pOWN%: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G → 29^th
• SG: Approach (175+ emphasis) → 27^th
• BoB Gained → 14^th
• SG: OTT → 15^th
• SG: Par 5s → 5^th
• Opportunities Gained → 62^nd
• SG: Putting → 13^th  

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last 5 Starts (or max) – 31^st // 21^st // 10^th // 40^th // 73^rd   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 49^th // 26^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Course Fit Rank: 69^th (nice)

Notes: In his somewhat limited starts on TOUR Gligic has putted by far the best on Bent greens and he comes into Minnesota having made 6 straight cuts with recent finishes of T10 at TPC Deere Run (comp course) and a T21 at the Barbasol (weak field similar to this); his putter has been solid after several bad weeks, he’s gained OTT in 6 of his last 8 events and gained T2G/APP in each of his last 2 starts; obviously we’re getting volatility but at only 7k + low ownership, I like his upside with the ball striking and his Par 5 scoring (5^th in the field)

Highest pOWN% (that are not already listed)

Chris Gotterup → pOWN%: 24%

Adam Svensson → pOWN%: 22%

Nick Hardy → pOWN%: 20%

OTHERS I LIKE: Martin Laird // Nick Hardy // Doug Ghim // Tyler Duncan // Tom Hoge

Low Tier Options – Under 7K (90 players):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Justin Lower ($6,900) → pOWN%: 5%

Quick Hits: Decent form and has played his best this year in weaker fields/easier courses with a T15 at Corales, T35 at Puerto Rico and coming off an 8^th at the Barbasol two week ago… has gained strokes on APP in 3 straight events, ranks 6^th in the field on Par 5s, 15^th BoB, and 3^rd in SG: Putting on Bent (best surface for him thus far in his career)

2) Austin Cook ($6,700) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Nothing incredible impressive, but has made his last 4 cuts with a T13 at the RBC Canadian and a T16 at the John Deere (comp course) a few weeks ago; stats look better than his finishes/DK Price as he’s 36^th in the field SG: T2G, 34^th BoB, 5^th Opportunities Gained, and 5^th in SG: Putting on Bent

3) Ben Kohles ($6,500) → pOWN%: 1%

Quick Hits: Has missed 4 of his last 5 cuts but the stats have been better than the results… gained on APP in 5 straight and 6 of the last 7, gained OTT in 3 of his last 4; a lot of risk but he’s only 6500 and ranks 6^th in the field in SG: APP, 24^th Opportunities Gained, and 13^th in GIRs Gained

Cash Game Options

1) Tony Finau

2) Davis Riley

3) Cam Davis

4) Brendan Steele

5) Nick Hardy

6) Chris Gotterup

7) Adam Svensson

8) Austin Smotherman

9) Joohyung Kim

10) Tom Hoge

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 5% of their Top 20 Odds, 10% Course History, & 10% of my course comp model ranking

1. Tony Finau
2. Hideki Matsuyama
3. T. Poston
4. Adam Svensson
5. Brendan Steele
6. Chez Reavie
7. Sungjae Im
8. Cam Davis
9. Maverick McNealy
10. Adam Hadwin
11. Davis Riley
12. Cameron Tringale
13. Sahith Theegala
14. Nick Hardy
15. Chris Gotterup
16. Martin Laird
17. Emiliano Grillo
18. Wyndham Clark
19. Adam Long
20. Michael Gligic