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Course: Torrey Pines GC (South)/Torrey Pines GC (North)

Fast Facts

• Both Par 72s with the South Course a whopping 7700 yards and the North Course 7250 yards
• Players will play South Course once on THU/FRI, North Course once on THU/FRI and South Course both times on the weekend
• Not only longer, but the South Course plays about 2 shots more difficult
• Greens: Poa (South Course)/Bentgrass (North Course); Stimp around 12.5 (FAST GREENS)
• Shotlink only available on South Course
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut after Round 2
• Average Cut around -2
• Average winning score around -10
• Corollary Courses: Pebble Beach, Bethpage Black, Oakmont, Shinnecock Hills
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Justin Rose (former winner), Tiger MF Woods (8-time winner lol)

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = 2-0; DK 1-1

GPP Results – See table below

 

Starting this season, and feel free to skip if you’re not interested, I will be writing a more in depth recap of not only the week ahead, but perhaps more importantly, what went into my thought process for both my cash game team (only 1 per week) and my main GPP team (I multi-enter each week but play my one “main” team in all multi entry/single entry/3 entry max, etc.).

Cash: I really liked my cash game build going into The American Express (what a moronic name for a tournament btw) despite not liking the tournament as a whole; I felt I had the right chalk and then I took a stand on a golfer or two to help differentiate a little bit as to not be part of a chalk cash train. Well, I got 5/6 through the cut, scored 506 points and was about 30 points out of the cash line for most double ups which is insane to think about for most weeks but with the birdie fest that is that tournament, it’s about what I expected. Last week was one in which except for the winner in Andrew Landry, which just about no one had, a ton of the super chalk plays hit which crushed me, a somewhat contrarian player. With Scottie Scheffler lighting up the first 3 days of the tournament at about 35-40% ownership in cash, followed by Brian Harman who finished T21 at about the same ownership it was very tough to overcome those two. Further, I took a stand and played Kokrak who was horrific the first day, shooting an over par round, and basically solidifying a missed cut and I also had Rory Sabbatini and Cameron Tringale who were fine enough the first few days but sputtered on Sunday to put the nail in my coffin. I will say on FD, I was able to easily cash again as all 6 of my guys made the cut which was enough to overcome the Scheffler/Harman chalk over there.

GPP: As I mentioned last week, I normally try to take a few pieces from my cash lineup that I like and pivot to some lower ownership for my “main lineup” that I play across all single entry/3 max/MME contests and that just didn’t fall into place this past week… much to my demise. I liked the look of it overall as Rickie was my favorite pivot and he looked spectacular through the first 2 days only to go classic Rickie and plateau over the next few days. Danny Lee ended up MC and he was always at risk to do so but he was much closer than the pathetic amount of DK points he scored as he was within the cut line late Saturday but then made several bogeys. Sunday proved to be my downfall again as my team could have maybe made a stronger push towards a min cash but Burgoon stalled, Wolff played terrible, Knox didn’t do much at all, and Cameron Tringale was making a push towards a possible Top 20 only to rattle off several bogeys. Like I mentioned in the cash section above, the chalk went off this past week including, which actually helped me in spots, Vaughn Taylor who was nearly 70% owned in cash in some contests and shot -9 on Saturday to make the cut, which is wild. The total ownership of my main lineup in the Albatross was about 80%, which is exactly in the range I shoot for so maybe some more solid rounds on Sunday and we have a different story to tell. Onto Torrey Pines, one of my favorite courses and tournaments of the year!

Course and Weather Notes: Another week of “multiple courses” but I’m ok with it here as I believe the real reason they use two courses is to make sure they can get all the holes in during this time of year where it gets dark earlier, although I can’t be sure. This is really a tale of two different sides as the South Course, as mentioned in the fast facts section, is a mammoth with very penal rough, fast Poa greens, narrow fairways, and clocking in at almost 7700 yards. The North Course isn’t “easy” per say, but it is much shorter and guys who want to win need to go pretty low on their one round over there. The key things to focus on and what will be talked up around the industry are driving distance (bomber’s paradise), long approaches, scrambling (guys will miss these small greens), and guys who can excel on fast greens. One thing I will look into a little bit are guys who have putted well not only at Torrey Pines but courses like Pebble Beach, Bethpage Black, Oakmont, and Shinnecock, which have the similar fast greens to Torrey and present a similar test.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards)
• Driving (SG: OTT and Driving Distance Gained)
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par 4s 450-500 yards
• SG: Par 5s
• Scrambling/SG: ARG
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,600) → Projected Ownership: 22%; I don’t think I’m giving anything groundbreaking here by saying I like Rory but if I’m going to choose from up top, which I think you have to pick pretty much 1 of the top 4 guys this week, I’ll go with him… not sure what needs to be said here but he’s 1^st in SG: BS, 1^st in SG: Par 5s, 1^st in Driving, 2^nd in Bogey Avoidance, and his last 2 starts are a 4^th and a win… he’s good… he’s my guy for single entry tournaments

2) Gary Woodland ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 20%; You may have noticed I’m going chalky up here but I’m ok with it as I plan to differentiate in the 7k/8k range… I love Woodland here and I have already bet him outright as well; 15^th in SG: APP (200+), 20^th in Driving, 21^st in SG: Putting on Poa, 23^rd in Bogey Avoidance, and his last 3 starts he’s finished 7^th/7^th/20^th… love that form and love that he has good history here too with 7 straight made cuts in which 5/7 were Top 20 or better

Fades

1) Justin Rose ($10,300) → Projected Ownership: 20%; Not much to say about this fade except that I can’t play everyone up here and being the defending champion I can see him gaining steam… Rose does hit it sneaky far but only ranks 80^th in my Driving rank and 109^th in Bogey Avoidance… his form and course history are strong so it’s a scary fade but I’ll side with Rory in the elite tier this week…

2) Tony Finau ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 22%; Well the fade didn’t really work last week but here we go again… Finau may be the highest owned on the slate and yes his course history is strong and he fits the course with his distance, but he’s still ranked 120^th in SG: Par 5s, 138^th in Putting on Poa, and 75^th in Bogey Avoidance… he can get hot, sure, but I will fade at this expected 20+% ownership and highly inflated Vegas Odds number…

Favorite Pivot

1) Patrick Reed ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 9%; PERFECT time to get back on the villain… he won’t be owned because everyone hates him and he’s coming off a bad missed cut at the Sony; Reed isn’t a bomber whatsoever, but he can scramble better than almost anyone, ranking 4^th in this field, along with ranking 9^th in SG: Putting on Poa; he’s 19^th in Par 4s 450-500, 7^th in Bogey Avoidance and despite having middling stats elsewhere, before his MC at the Sony his previous finishes were runner up/3^rd/28^th/10^th/8^th… I think he could be in line for a sneaky strong performance this week

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Lanto Griffin ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%; For how he’s been playing, this price is too cheap for and one that I hope doesn’t gain traction for people as the week goes on… Lanto ranks 27^th in SG: BS, 16^th in SG: APP, 3^rd in SG: Par 5s, 21^st in Driving, and 6^th in Scrambling; his last 2 finishes were a 7^th at the Sony and 13^th at the Tourney of Champions and although only having played Torrey once, he did finish 12^th in 2018; love Lanto this week in all formats

2) Keegan Bradley ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 11%: Sometimes you have to do what makes you uncomfortable… and that for me is putting Keegan Bradley as one of my favorite plays this week… first, the positives: Keegan has 2 Top 5s in his last 3 starts at Torrey, he ranks Top 50 in Scrambling, SG: BS, SG: APP from 200+, and SG: T2g… the negatives? One of the worst putters ever and his last Top 10 was the Travelers in June of 2018… I think with his ball striking/driving distance he can turn in a good performance here and this price is very cheap… will he putt AVERAGE? Who knows…

Fades

1) Cameron Smith ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%; After his win at the Sony I feel like this is too expensive… he can be very streaky and ranks solidly in Bogey Avoidance and SG: Putting but is 82^nd in SG: BS, 73^rd in SG: APP, and 78^th in Driving; he’s not the worst play on the board, but I think I would rathe pivot elsewhere in this range

2) Byeong Hun An ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Now at a cheaper price tag but he’s fallen a bit in the ranks for what he’s known for, his ball striking, where he ranks 69^th (nice) in SG: BS, 50^th in SG: APP from 200+, and 74^th in Driving; obviously, he ranks 128^th in SG: Putting on Poa and also ranks 128^th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards… he should get some buzz but he’s a fade for me

Favorite Pivot

1) Sebastian Munoz ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 4%; With the exception of the Sony, Munoz has been playing great and that continued last week in which I don’t think many would realize he was 5^th in the entire AMEX field in SG: APP, gaining 5.6 shots, but he lost 3 strokes putting, hence the T21 finish; Munoz ranks 13^th in Bogey Avoidance, 11^th in SG: Par 4s 450-500, 8^th in Scrambling, 48^th in SG: BS, and 46^th in Driving which at this price I will take all day; his course history here isn’t superb as he’s finished 72^nd and 54^th; however, he is a vastly different player than year’s past and I like him to continue his solid form at Torrey

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Carlos Ortiz ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%; I will continue to play Ortiz and this price doesn’t make much sense to me… 3^rd in Par 4s 450-500, 17^th in SG: Putting on Poa

2) Sepp Straka ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 8%; He could definitely end up being 6k chalk which is never good but he’s 22^nd in SG: BS, 27^th in SG: APP, 12^th in Driving, 14^th in Bogey Avoidance, 17^th in Par 4s 450-500 and coming off a 4^th place finish last week

3) Scott Harrington ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 2%: Not a ton of data to go off of but it’s worth noting he’s 32^nd in SG: BS, 6^th in Driving, and 33^rd in Scrambling at only $6,400…

4) Brandon Wu ($6,300) → Projected Ownership: 1%: Similar to Harrington, Wu ranks 37^th in SG: BS, 13^th in SG: APP (200+), 26^th in Driving, and 44^th in Par 4s 450-500… probably my favorite low priced dart

Cash Game Plays

1) Gary Woodland

2) Lanto Griffin

3) Sebastian Munoz

4) Carlos Ortiz

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jon Rahm
3. Gary Woodland
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Justin Rose
7. Lanto Griffin
8. Patrick Reed
9. Cameron Tringale
10. Tiger Woods
11. Tony Finau
12. Scottie Scheffler
13. Rickie Fowler
14. Ryan Palmer
15. Cameron Smith

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Tony Finau

Jon Rahm

Hideki Matsuyama

Xander Schauffele

Gary Woodland

OAD Pivots

Patrick Reed

Rickie Fowler

Brandt Snedeker

Marc Leishman

Keegan Bradley