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All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: CC of Jackson, Jackson, MS

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7440 Yards
• Normally hosted as an alternate field event (opposite a WGC for example); been here since 2015
• Donald Ross-esque design with tricky greens and emphasis on hitting the right part of the green
• Greens: Bermuda running around 12 on the stimp (average for the TOUR)
• Average Green Size: 5000-8000 sq. ft. (SMALLER than average)
• Field: 156 players; NEW THIS YEAR: NO MDF; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• Average winning score around -19
• Four Par 5s this week, which has become a rarity on the TOUR… 35% BoB rate on average
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Corey Conners, Aaron Wise, Wyndham Clark, Cameron Champ (former winner), Sungjae Im

Course and Weather Notes: This should be similar to last week’s Greenbrier which is essentially a birdie fest with golfers probably needing between 22-25 birdies to capture the title… Mississippi should be pretty hot and humid and this course is sneaky long but that’s masked by 4 Par 5s (3 in the 550-600 yard range)… The forecast is calling for 90-100 degrees on all 4 days with Thunderstorms on Thursday and partly cloudy the other 3 so I don’t see a ton of wave advantage as of now; players need to excel in their shorter wedge ranges (100-150) but I also put an emphasis on 200+ yard approaches with 4 par 5s and the possibility for eagles

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-150/200+ yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Putting (emphasis on Bermuda)

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Brandt Snedeker ($10,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Sneds didn’t tear it up at the TOUR Championship but before that he had back to bac Top 6 finishes at the Northern Trust and BMW; he is one of the best places in the field (if not the best) and hits a ton of greens, is an elite putter, and is sure to be focused on racking up early FedEx Cup points; his Par 5 scoring can be a little iffy as he’s not a bomber but his accurate tee shots, strong GIRs Gained (12^th in the field) and T2G came (12^th in the field) makes him a strong option with a lot of winning upside

2) J.T. Poston ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 13%; This is a lofty price to pay for Poston but he ranks #1 in my model this week… he’s 16^th in SG: T2G, 5^th in SG: APP, 8^th in SG: Par 5s, 4^th in GIRs Gained, and 10^th in BoB Gained… like many in the field we haven’t seen him in several weeks but his 3^rd to last start featured his first win on TOUR and I think he comes into the swing season full of confidence; he hasn’t torn up the course but has made 3 straight cuts at CC of Jackson

Fades

1) Cameron Smith ($9,800) → Projected Ownership: 8%; I think Smith comes in at higher than my projected ownership, but I haven’t seen a good finish out of him in a while… I get the price given this field and he did have a Top 25 last week but his stats haven’t clicked recently as he ranks 45^th in T2G, 121^st in SG: APP, 134^th in GIRs Gained, and 54^th in BoB Gained… Smith has the talent to pop out of nowhere, but I prefer several other guys around him

2) Emiliano Grillo ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Normally gets a decent ownership bump as he’s such an elite ball striker but his putting continues to be terrible and like Smith, I like others around him more; Grillo has strong stats as ranking 1^st in SG: APP and 19^th in T2G, but 110^th in putting and hasn’t posted a Top 10 finish since the Memorial; I will root for him but not own him on my teams

Favorite Pivot

Brian Harman ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%; From someone I always play (Grillo) to someone I NEVER play… Harman ranks 7^th overall this week as he’s 2^nd in the field in T2G, 6^th in Par 5 Scoring, 15^th in SG: Putting, and 7^th in BoB Gained… Harman finished 3^rd last week and in his last 6 starts (albeit spread out), he has 3 finishes of 7^th or better; I like his ability to compete in these weaker fields and while you can miss the fairways here you’re much better suited out of the rough in which Harman excels

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Aaron Wise ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 10%; One of my favorites on TOUR, I think Wise sets up great for this track; 2^nd in SG: Par 5s, 16^th in GIRs Gained, and 2^nd in BoB Gained, he has the ability to get hot and I’m hoping since we haven’t seen him in probably 6 weeks that his ownership won’t spike… he hasn’t been in incredible form but has made all his cuts since the U.S. Open and has now had some rest since his last start was the NORTHERN TRUST… I will own in GPPs at probably 30-40%

2) Doc Redman ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 10%: He’s getting more buzz than I thought he would but this young kid is going to be a star and I think will win sooner than you might think… he hasn’t played many events on the TOUR but he finished T24 last week, finished T20 at the British Open, and came runner up at the Rocket Mortgage a few months ago… he makes birdies in bunches (9^th in the field in BoB Gained), ranks 19^th in SG: Par 5s, and has a lot of potential for a guy coming over from the PGA Canada/Korn Ferry Tour.. I like owning Doc at about 20-25% this week in GPPs

Fades

1) Cameron Champ ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Winner last year after he got off to that fire start but since then hasn’t really done anything of note… Champ ranks near the bottom in most stats I’m looking at this week: 113^th in SG: T2G, 135^th in SG: APP, 143^rd in SG: Par 5s, 112^th in SG: Putting, and 126^th in BoB Gained… not good; his last T10 finish or better was last year’s RSM Classic and since then he’s missed 10/20 cuts, WD once, and finished T21 or better just one time… fade for me

2) Luke List ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Normally a popular Fall swing player and someone who’s an elite ball striker but bad putter, List has had everything come off the rails… 13^9th in SG: T2G, 140^th in SG: APP, 133^rd in GIRs Gained, 147^th in BoB Gained… yikes; List has missed 4/5 of his last few cuts and the one he made he finished 77^th… not sure what’s going on but I will not jump back on yet

Favorite Pivot

Bronson Burgoon ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 6%; A popular theme in this article is good iron players and bad putters and here’s another one: Burgoon ranks 14^th in SG: T2G, 18^th in SG: APP, 31^st in SG: Par 5s, and 37^th in BoB Gained… and 140^th in SG: Putting; if he can find the flat stick just once he should be in line for a high finish as he’s coming off a Top 20 finish last week and should be able to bomb it by most of the field; 15-20% exposure for me

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Wyndham Clark ($8,400), Kevin Streelman ($7,900), Sebastian Munoz ($7,900), Cameron Tringale ($7,300)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Ryan Blaum ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 2%; GPP only play here but no one will own him and he ranks 21^st in my overall model for only 6600… he ranks 10^th in SG: T2G, 11^th in SG: APP, 13^th in SG: Par 5s, and 8^th in BoB Gained… and yes, he ranks 138^th in SG: Putting to keep with the theme; he’s not in amazing form but does have a 20^th and 11^th place finish here and should be one of the longer hitters in the field… take him in 5-10% or 1 lineup and be well overweight the field

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) J.T. Poston

2) Vaughn Taylor

3) Aaron Wise

4) Sepp Straka

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. J.T. Poston
2. Vaughn Taylor
3. Joaquin Niemann
4. Corey Conners
5. Sebastian Munoz
6. Brandt Snedeker
7. Brian Harman
8. Doc Redman
9. Lucas Glover
10. Bronson Burgoon
11. Wyndham Clark
12. Josh Teater
13. Byeong Hun An
14. Adam Schenk
15. Sepp Straka

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Scottie Scheffler: 25/1

Brian Harman: 30/1

Doc Redman: 80/1

Ryan Blaum Top 10: 18/1

Josh Teater Top 20: 8/1