Sam’s Teeing Off – 2019 RBC Heritage DraftKings Picks, Value Bets

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! (Get 20% off by clicking FantasyNational.com/DFSKarma) Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman @dfs_karma

 

Quick Masters Recap

Well Tiger Woods won. Well actually Tiger Woods won a major. ACTUALLY, Tiger Woods won the 2019 MASTERS TOURNAMENT!!!!!!!!!!!! I can’t really put into words what it meant to see my hero capture his first major in 11 years, his first Masters in 14 years, and not to mention his first major title where he came from behind to win. I don’t care if it was cliché or it was cheesy but getting to watch him hug his son and see the side by side with Earl (his father) from his win in 1997 brought a tear to my eye and I know for a fact it did the same to millions of others around the world. I think my only gripe I have is I see some people saying, “Tiger Woods is back!” People. He has BEEN back. This is the 3^rd major in a row he was a legitimate contender, he won the TOUR Championship 7 months ago, and his iron/approach game has returned to near “Tiger Slam” levels as he continues to dominate the fields he plays in with all facets of his approach play. What is scary? For the most part, and there will always be those Tiger sprays or snap hooks, he is hitting his driver well and he is hitting it straight. I will always incorporate some heavy bias as a mega-fan of his, but I really don’t think saying he can get to 19 majors is that crazy at all. No, it’s not a guarantee and maybe this ends up being his last major he ever wins, but the look on his face all Sunday was one I hadn’t seen in over 10 years. I wrote an article last year as I chronicled all of his injuries and fight back and titled it “He’s Not Done Yet,” and oh boy is he not done whatsoever. Now, let’s get into the RBC Heritage field which is quite a bit stronger than we’re normally used to after the Masters!

 

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

• SG: BS – 25%
• SG: APP Blend (150-200 yards) – 20%
• BoB Gained – 15%
• Bogey Avoidance – 10%
• SG: Par 4s – 10%
• Scrambling – 10%
• Fairways Gained – 5%
• Par 3 Scoring – 5%

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above

Plays

1) Dustin Johnson ($11,600) → Projected Ownership: 16%; No one is in better form and despite this not being a “bomber’s paradise,” per say, DJ can dominate any field and any course; he’s averaging 98.2 DK Points over his last 5 tournaments as well (#1 in the field)

2) Matt Kuchar ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 21%; Model of consistency right here and one of the better, if not the best, Pete Dye player in the field; he’s won here before, plays solid target golf and ranks 5^th T2G, 5^th in SG: BS, 5^th in the SG: APP Blend, and a solid made cut streak; CASH LOCK

Fades

1) Xander Schauffele ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%; He’s an elite player but this is quite the price jump and he will gain steam as people saw him finish T2 at the Masters; he makes too many bogeys for me to go in on him and he ranks 87^th in the field in Fairways Gained and 71^st in Par 3s, 2 key categories

2) Bryson Dechambeau ($10,400) → Projected Ownership: 14%; he has played well here before but I still think his iron game is all over the place, as he ranks 93^rd in this field in the SG: APP blend, 72^nd in SG: Par 4s, 81^st in Scrambling, and 47^th T2G; I think Bryson is still looking to hone in his game again

Favorite Pivot

Jordan Spieth ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 7%; I think people will stay off as Jordan had his best finish in several months at Augusta (a T21); however, Jordan has been somewhat consistent here, finishing 12^th, 11^th, and 9^th in the 3 years he’s competed; stats still leave MUCH to be desired but maybe not needing to always hit driver should mitigate some of his off the tee woes

 

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K)

Plays

1) Jason Kokrak ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 18%; I’m jumping on the train! Kokrak has been FIRE lately in all aspects of his game, ranking 12^th in T2G, 4^th in SG: BS, 2^nd in SG: APP Blend, 11^th in SG: Par 4s, 6^th in BoB, 3^rd in SG: Par 3s, and 4^th in Bogey Avoidance… whoa. How about his last 5 starts? 7^th, 2^nd, 47^th, 10^th, and 9^th… maybe his ownership goes slightly lower due to his non-elite history here but I’ll eat this chalk all day with how he’s looked

2) Ian Poulter ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 16%; this price makes no sense to me and we should absolutely take advantage; Poulter’s last 6 starts: 12^th, 56^th, 23^rd, 3^rd, 6^th, and 3^rd… he clearly has found something in his game over the last year and he’s played well here in the past with 2 Top 20s and a Top 10 in the last 4 years; I like him for both CASH and GPPs

3) Graeme McDowell ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 8%; this guy has been playing great as he just won over in Puerto Rico and is still trying to qualify for the British Open in his home country; in this field, McDowell ranks 7^th in SG: Par 4s, 1^st in Scrambling, 19^th in BoB, 10^th in SG: Par 3s, and 10^th in Bogey Avoidance; at this price I think that’s a steal and I will target solid GPP ownership

Fades

1) Byeong Hun An ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 25%; this could burn me of course but he’s currently projected for highest ownership in the field and despite being unbelievably elite, he can’t shake the putting issues which is nearly as key as SG: APP here; doesn’t have a ton of flaws except the putting and that he ranks 72^nd in the field in Fairways Gained but 20-25% isn’t worth it to me

2) Luke List ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%; always a popular DFS darling, I could see his ownership higher than 10% but he doesn’t seem to be clicking lately, as he ranks 45^th in the SG: APP Blend, 126^th in Scrambling, 125^th in SG: Par 3s, and 125^th in Bogey Avoidance; normally we can rely on his elite ball striking and expect bad putting but in his last 8 starts List only has 1 finish of 10^th or better to go along with 3 MCs; pass for me

Favorite Pivot

Matt Wallace ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 6%; people love to harp on recency so after Wallace missed the cut in his debut at Augusta I expect low ownership and people to forget he has 2 Top 6 finishes in his 5 starts before Augusta, as well as a Top 20; Wallace doesn’t have as many rounds on the PGA TOUR as others but if you dive into his European Tour stats he ranks 17^th in Par 4 Scoring, and 32^nd in SG: Putting and over in the US, he’s 7^th in Scrambling and 21^st in the field in T2G; I like Wallace a lot as a 15-20% DK exposure play in which you’ll easily 2-3x the field

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K)

Plays

1) Ryan Armour ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 3%; Armour hits a TON of fairways (7^th in the field), can scramble well (10^th in the field), and at this projected ownership, you don’t need a ton of him to be well overweight the field; he can be somewhat volatile, which is why he’s not someone you want something like 30% exposure to, but he’s someone who can definitely make the cut and has Top 20/Top 15 upside if he starts making some birdies

Fades

1) Chez Reavie ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 5%; He’s been horrible… that is all; yes he’s underpriced from what he normally is and can occasionally get hot but he’s missed 3 of his last 4 cuts (the one he made he finished 65^th) and is only averaging 39 DK Points over his last 5 tournaments

Favorite Pivot

Aaron Wise ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 5%; Stuard ranks very high in my model for being this price as he ranks 12^th in the SG: APP Blend, 2^nd in SG; Par 3s, 8^th in Fairways Gained, and 22^nd in Bogey Avoidance; he’s up and down as his last 5 starts are 4^th, MC, 18^th, MC, 20^th so he’s again, not someone to go all in on, but I like 10-15% exposure and hopefully 3x the field in a potential sleeper

 

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Matt Kuchar

2) Ian Poulter

3) Brandt Snedeker

4 Russell Knox

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Jim Furyk
2. Jason Kokrak
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Si Woo Kim
6. Matt Kuchar
7. Webb Simpson
8. Ian Poulter
9. Xander Schauffele
10. Francesco Molinari

 

Betting

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Outrights/Value Bets:

Keith Mitchell 80/1

Ian Poulter 40/1

Wyndham Clark 125/1

Matt Wallace 80/1

Wyndham Clark Top 20 5/1

Cameron Champ Top 20 7/1

Scott Brown Top 20 7/1

Ryan Armour Top 20 5/1