PGA Championship 2019 Preview

Course: Bethpage State Park – Black Course

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7436 yards
• Designer: Tillinghast (1936) with updates by Rees Jones in 1997 and 2018
  • Other Notable Tillinghast Courses: Baltusrol (2005/2016 PGA Championship), Pinehurst #2 (2014 U.S. Open), Oak Hill (2013 PGA Championship), Winged Foot (2006 U.S. Open)
  • Other Notable Rees Jones designs and redesigns: Torrey Pines South (Farmer’s Open and 2008 U.S. Open), GC of Houston (Houston Open), Hazeltine (2009 PGA Championship), Atlanta Athletic Club (2011 PGA Championship), Baltusrol (2016 PGA Championship), East Lake GC (TOUR Championship), Bellerive CC (2018 PGA Championship)
• Fairways: Kentucky Bluegrass; average about 25 yards wide (TIGHT)
• Rough: Bentgrass/Perennial Ryegrass with 3-4 inch fescue (VERY THICK)
• Greens: Poa (with Bentgrass) and about 12+ on the stimp (probably run a little bit faster)
• Average Green Size: 5500 sq. ft. (smaller than average for the TOUR)
• Water Hazards: 1
• Field: 156 players
• Most Recent Scoring Averages
  • 2009 U.S. Open: 72.93 (+2.93 OVER par)
  • 2012 Barclays: 71.72 (+0.72 OVER par)
  • 2016 Barclays: 71.75 (+0.75 OVER par)
• Corollary Courses (via past winners/contenders): Blue Monster Doral, Quail Hollow, Copperhead, Torrey Pines, PGA National
• Average Cutline (2 U.S. Opens/2 Barclays): +5

Well the 2^nd major of the year is upon us, in May for the first time 1949, and I for one am pumped up to not have what is most certainly the “weakest” major finishing off the season and not having to wait from April to June to see Tiger capture his 2^nd straight major. Unlike last year’s PGA Championship, which featured a new course in the rotation, we have a little bit of data to go off and I see a little bit only because the course will certainly set up differently than it did for the 2009 US Open as this is the PGA of America making decisions instead of the USGA. We also have the 2012 and 2016 Barclays tournaments having been played here, which are somewhat recent, but they were played later in the year and I don’t expect to see the winning score in the -10 to -12 range as that tournament normally finishes. In the 2016 Barclays, 30 golfers finished under par for the tournament which certainly contrasts the only six that finished under par in the 2009 US Open (won by Lucas Glover). While I don’t think it will play quite as tough as a US Open normally does with a winning score over par, I don’t see more than 10 or so players finishing under par for the week due to a few aspects, some which have been mentioned above in the fast facts section: 1) there has been a TON of rain this season on the course and seeing how the tournament is in May as opposed to August, the fairways/greens were already going to be softer, 2) this is consistently one of the tougher courses for both the FedEx Cup Playoffs (Barclays) and the US Open and we’re not going to see a Jason Day-esque -20 win this tournament, 3) this rough is VERY THICK and if you miss the fairway, not only are you pretty stuck but you’re hitting onto another tough aspect, 4) smaller than average greens that are seeded with bumpy POA, that many pros struggle on. This test of golf will certainly be fun to watch, especially down the stretch, as it is going to take a complete all-around game to win here. That may sound obvious because of course you want your entire game clicking for a major championship; however, your T2G game needs to be pristine, you need to be able to stick long approach shots (over 200 yards) consistently, and through all of that, missing the green is incredible penial, so you’re up-and-down has to be similar to that of Patrick Reed at the 2018 Masters. Below I have posted the last 3 tournaments played here, taken the average scores from all 3, and tried to dissect which holes are playing the toughest, where players can get an edge on the field, and what we can expect scoring wise. Further, the 2^nd table lays out average approach length by Par type as well as the combined Birdie-or-Better (BoB%) from the last 3 tournaments for those Par types.

 

As we look above, we can gain some knowledge about what it will take to contend here and parts of the game that must be in sync if players not only want to be around for the weekend but win. First, you’ll notice that the combined average score is about 2.26 OVER par, which sounds more like a US Open type average than a PGA Championship, but with only 2 par fives, and only that is realistically reachable for the whole field, there aren’t any “easy” birdie holes at Bethpage. Taking it even further, only 2 holes outside of the par fives have even averaged under par historically, one being a short par 4 that’s less than 400 yards and the other a par 3 that is probably a wedge or easy 9 iron for most players. When we look at the 12 par 4s, we see that over half of them (7) are over 450 yards with 3 being over 500 yards. The ability to have driving distance on your side as well as be able to control long irons 175+ yards, and more like 200+ yards, is so imperative that it can’t be overstated. It’s clear when you look at the Par type table that it is a must to birdie the par 5s, which is similar to most courses on TOUR, but instead of being able to birdie these mid-range par 4s, simply making par, or the occasional birdie, will gain you behind 0.2 to maybe even a stroke on the field during some days. While you want to target birdie makers in most tournaments as that’s how you win golf tournaments and succeed in DFS golf, I will be heavier weighting guys who avoid big numbers and who can scramble well to get up and down when they miss these small greens. Lastly, while Driving Distance is never required anywhere per say, this is certainly similar to Augusta in that it gives you a big advantage with these very soft fairways (normally firm), and the ability to have shorter irons into the 500+ yard par 4s. To put some context on the importance of getting up and down, when this was played here for the 2009 US Open, the Up and Down percentage was about 50%, and if you look at the current TOUR average, it’s a little bit under 60%. Below, lastly for this section, is a table of how the players in the field next week have fared in the 3 tournaments listed above at Bethpage. I have shortened the list to only include players who made at least one start in one of the 3 tournaments.

I sorted by average finish but of course as we can see, someone like Patrick Reed or Grillo are going to be at the top since they only made 1 start and either won or placed 2^nd. I think the more interesting results are players such as Bubba, Phil, Rory, or J.B. Holmes. I would not expect Bubba to show up as 3/3 in made cuts considering most of these courses have thick round and he tends to spray the ball, and the same goes for Phil. Rory makes sense due to his bombing ability that is also straight as an arrow. This table certainly doesn’t tell the whole story as not everyone has had the same opportunity to play these courses or has been on TOUR since the 2009 US Open, but interesting nonetheless to see some decently consistent performance from some on this track.

Correlating Stats and Courses

In the fast facts section, I listed out several key courses that both A.W. Tillinghast designed and subsequently, the courses of both Tillinghast, and in general, that Rees Jones has made modifications and redesigns to over the years. With limited data to go off for “course history” and “course fit,” I think finding the players that have succeed at similar courses can give us a big leg up on picking winners and DFS contenders. When I examine, via FantasyNational.com, some corollary courses, which in this model include: Baltusrol, Bellerive, Bethpage Black, East Lake, GC of Houston, Oak Hill, PGA National, Pinehurst #2, and Quail Hollow, it yields some obvious and not so obvious results. Tillinghast, as well as Rees, are all about 2^nd short courses and the types of players that normally succeed at their courses are elite iron and ball strikers but are also able to get themselves out of trouble when necessary. When I run SG: Total for the last 50 rounds using the above courses we get a Top 20 that looks like this:

1. Justin Thomas
2. Jason Day
3. Justin Rose
4. Adam Scott
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Rickie Fowler
7. Paul Casey
8. Henrik Stenson
9. Gary Woodland
10. Jordan Spieth
11. Webb Simpson
12. Sergio Garcia
13. Tiger Woods
14. Hideki Matsuyama
15. Jon Rahm
16. Ryan Palmer
17. Patrick Reed
18. Billy Horschel
19. Dustin Johnson
20. Jim Furyk

This yielded some of the usual suspects in Justin Thomas, who has won at Quail Hollow and is probably the best iron player in the world, Jason Day and Justin Rose who have both won at Torrey Pines, Rory McIlroy who has dominated Quail Hollow, East Lake, among others, and Tiger Woods who has seemingly dominated almost every course in the world. What I didn’t expect was to get guys in the Top 20 like Webb Simpson, Ryan Palmer, Billy Horschel and when we think of what type of player they are it’s not massive off the tee, but accurate, elite long iron players, and who like how these courses set up. Webb is 4^th on TOUR in scrambling, Horschel owns a win and a 2^nd at East Lake, and Ryan Palmer who has a 2^nd and 13^th in his last 2 starts at Torrey and has consistently gained strokes on the field in shots over 175+ for the last several years.

Key Stats Needed to Compete

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: Total
• SG: APP (emphasis on 175+)
• Total Driving (emphasis on Distance)
• Scrambling
• SG: Putting Blend (emphasis on inside 15 feet)
• Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance

Above are the stats that I, at least as this moment, will be focusing on for the 2019 PGA Championship. One thing that stuck out to me when starting my research, which was then confirmed by Steve Bamford of golfbettingsystem.com (Check him out by the way, he’s very sharp), is just how impact SG: OTT/Total Driving is on this course when compared to putting. The average rank in SG: Putting for the last 3 winners on this course is 21^st, which is shocking to me because normally to win you’re needing to rank in the Top 5 or 10, minimum, to have a shot at a victory. The average rank of SG: OTT is 15^th, SG: APP 17^th, and SG: T2G 10^th. This course is very tough and will likely see a winning score of around -5 or even worse, if I had to guess right now. It sounds silly to have SG: Total as a key stat but I like the inclusion of it in my stats model this week, at a high weight, because this course tests every facet of a player’s ability. Using either SG: OTT or Total Driving is adequate but I may look at the PGA TOUR stats which officially publish Total Driving measurements as well as mess around in FNGC to find a nice medium between Distance and Accuracy, with a slight bump to distance. The last stat that I have not mentioned in this article yet and it’s a good point brought up by Bucks, of GUPS Corner (@bpsnow11 on Twitter), is that with all the scrambling and need to get up and down after missed greens, there will be tons of 10 or 15 foot par putts. I’m not normally a fan of including SG: Putting in my stats model because it’s so variable and can change on a dime, but this week I’m definitely going to look at putting splits since Poa is VERY TRICKY to put on as well as guys who can make those 5-15 foot par saves and keep their momentum going on the course. Below are my initial stat ranks based on my criteria and represents a blend of 12, 24, 50, and 100 rounds via FNGC:

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Tommy Fleetwood
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Justin Rose
6. Tiger Woods
7. Paul Casey
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Rickie Fowler
10. Jon Rahm
11. Matt Kuchar
12. Justin Thomas
13. Adam Scott
14. Lucas Glover
15. Webb Simpson
16. Byeong Hun An
17. Xander Schauffele
18. Gary Woodland
19. Bubba Watson
20. Jason Day
21. Sergio Garcia
22. Jim Furyk
23. Henrik Stenson
24. Jason Kokrak
25. Joel Dahmen

Final Thoughts

I enjoy writing this preview but it’s always important to mention that you can go over thousands and thousands of stats, trends, narratives, etc. but golf will always present a degree of randomness and while we can get an edge up by doing things such as seeing correlated stats to success, players who perform well at similar courses, compare long vs. short term form, and look at guys who play well in stronger/major fields, STUFF HAPPENS! I guarantee you there will be someone atop the leader board who you never thought, a guy at the top who rode a nice 9 strokes gained putting, lost everywhere else, and finished T7, or a major stud who just doesn’t have it this week, a la Casey at the Masters, and will burn everyone, even you. This course will favor bombers, guys who can keep it out of the very thick rough, gives an edge to POA putters, and scramblers who can get up and down from fescue, deep bunkers, and everywhere else in between. Come join our Discord over at DFS Karma where I will be dropping information all week long and giving out stats, current form, ownership projections, and much more! Let’s get this next one Tiger.

Tiger #16.