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The 2019 Masters is finally here, and the words cannot be put to paper quick enough. I would be lying if I said the Masters is not one of my favorite tournaments to watch and bet on. With that being said; I am not ashamed to say that I have placed far too many bets. But when betting golf, you must always remember bankroll management. If you take a few tournament winners, keep it modest in relation to your typical bet. There is no shame in placing a half unit bet on a tournament winner whose odds are around +2000. Think about in relation to your standard one-unit bet. When you bet football, you are placing one and two-unit bets with odds around -110. So, there is nothing wrong with modesty when you are getting 20 times your money.
Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 Finish (-120)
Let’s start small and work our way to the big payouts. Top 20 finish bets, are an easy way to make money in major. Find one or two golfers who consistently makes the cut and often finds themselves near the top of the leaderboard on Sundays. Many of the top ranked golfers in this tournament carry very little value. Take Rory for instance, his Top 20 finish value is set at -450. I would never tell someone to take a bet with that much juice. Tommy Fleetwood on the other hand has tremendous value. A Top 20 finish for Fleetwood is currently sitting at -120. I am comfortable taking Fleetwood here, personally I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish somewhere around 6 or 7. This will be his third year playing in the Masters where his missed the cut his first year and tied for 17th his second. Fleetwood has finished in the Top 20 in 4 out of his last 6 golf tournaments, excluding the Dell Technologies Match Play Tournament. Three of which he found himself inside the Top 10. Through 7 events, Fleetwood has made the cut in all 7 events. Fleetwood is a master out of the bunker and around the green. He’s also long enough off the tee should it rain, he will be fine.
Rory McIlroy Top 10 Finish (-190)
My bet for a Top 10 finish has a lot to do with the “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it” betting strategy. This golf season I have been notorious for not only betting Rory McIlroy to finish in the Top 10, but I have been telling all of you to bet him to finish in the Top 10. Week in and week out I let you guys know it’s a smart play to take Rory as a Top 10 finisher. Out of the 8 tournaments he has played, he has made the Top 10 in 7. Vegas currently has Rory listed as the betting favorite to win this year’s Masters. How could you bet against a guy who is playing golf at such a high level? Rory has five Top 5 finishes this year, while finishing 2nd at the WGC – Mexico Championship and a win at The Players. He’s 2nd in the FedEx Cup, 3rd in the World Golf Rankings and 1st on the Money List. If that is not enough to make you back a Top 10 finish from Rory, look at his play around the course. Outside of his occasional round where it seems he leaves his putter at home, his play has been phenomenal. Rory is ranked 6th in driving distance, 10th in greens in regulation, 3rd in scoring average, and 1st in both tee-to-green and off-the-tee. With numbers like that, it is no surprise Vegas has Rory listed as the betting favorite.
Brooks Koepka to win (+3300)
Correctly picking a betting favorite to win a golf tournament is very difficult. Which is why I tend to keep my wagers here small. But for fun, I will give you a golfer I like to win the tournament who has one of the top 10 lowest payouts and then a winner who is outside. Full disclosure, I will be rooting for Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy to win this year. With that being said, the outright favorites very rarely win golf tournaments. I am hard pressed to remember a time outside of the Tiger Woods era where the outright favorite won the Masters. Naturally, that makes me look to value. Which golfer in the top 10 favorites carries enough value to take a small risk? Which golfer could I see winning? I am going to go with a previous major winner. Although Augusta National has one of the most impressive sub air drainage systems in golf, the forecast is projecting rain. Which means, I want a past major winner who is long off the tee and a solid putter. Brooks Koepka fits that mold. His putting this season has not been ideal, but he has proven his ability to have success putting on very difficult greens. Brooks is a 3-time major winner with odds around +3300. He hasn’t had the most stellar season, but he does have a victory at the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges.
Paul Casey to win (+4000)
The second golfer I am picking to win it all outside of the guys with the top 10 odds, will be Paul Casey. I made this pick before his win last week at the Valspar. With him winning this weekend, it only adds to my comfort level. His odds are set at +4000 so yes, he is a longshot. He also has what it takes to win at the Masters. In his last four Masters starts, he’s made the cut in all four, finished in the top 20 in all four, and finished in the top 10 in three out of the four. With any longshot it’s an uphill battle the entire way. But, I am comfortable to pick Paul Casey to win the 2019 Master.
Golfers to watch:
Jordan Spieth
Francesco Molinari
Matt Kuchar
Louis Oosthuizen
Be sure to tune into What’s the Spread, I will be covering tournament winners and help you win your office pool during all four majors.
