Welcome back, Karma Nation! I’ll be highlighting three of my favorite NFL player props for Thursday Night’s matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Denver Broncos. This article series is 7/18 on prop bets thus far this year (38.9%). After a 1/3 week last TNF, we’re looking to get right back on track. The Jalen Hurts rushing prop highlighted last week was only 1 rushing yard off of the line I targeted. The process was there, but the results didn’t follow. As the season goes on, we’ll be able to better predict trends and usage patterns with the more data we have to work off of. To find all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. Let’s dive in.
Javonte Williams Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Through 6 games this season, rookie running back Javonte Williams and veteran Melvin Gordon have evenly split the backfield in a classic 50/50 timeshare. However, with Melvin Gordon receiving limited practice reps on a short week for recovery time, I believe Williams will see more work than Gordon in this matchup against the Browns. While the Browns have one of the better rushing defenses in the league, Williams has proven to be efficient and effective as a runner, regardless of matchup. He is averaging 50 yards rushing per game and had his best performance against the stout Pittsburgh Steelers run defense, with 61 rushing yards and a whopping 7.63 yards per carry.
Javonte Williams Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
We’re going back to the well on another Javonte Williams prop in this game. Through 6 games, Williams is averaging 15 receiving yards per game on 2.5 targets and 2.3 catches per game. When Williams gets the ball thrown his way, it’s typically in a check-down capacity, giving him a chance to create yards in space. I like his odds to get 2 receptions in this game and churn yards against a Browns defense dealing with some injuries to its linebacking core.
Tim Patrick Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)
This line doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Since becoming the WR2 in this offense after Jerry Jeudy went down with an ankle injury early in the season, Patrick has done nothing but produce on the field. Through 6 games, he’s averaging 4.2 catches per game on 5.6 targets per game. He has shown to be a reliable option in this offense. I think Patrick should be a lot for 4 catches this week. If the line moves to 4.5, then I’ll be taking the under here.
If you parlayed all 3 picks together in a same game parlay with $100, the potential payout is $375 (+275 total odds).
