Ben Roethlisberger/Jaylen Samuels/Antonio Brown
The Pittsburgh Steelers have featured one of the best offenses in the NFL this season, ranking fourth in the league with 413.8 total yards and 28.8 points per game. They get a great matchup against the Oakland Raiders, who rank 28th in the NFL with 396.6 total yards and 31st with 30.6 points allowed per game. The Steelers have scored 28+ points in seven of their 12 games this season, and they are -11 point favorites in a game set at 51.5 points. They feature one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 31.3 points.
Ben Roethlisberger has been playing at an extremely high level this season, averaging 328.8 yards and 2.2 touchdowns on 43.1 pass attempts per game. He has also added three rushing touchdowns without much yardage upside on the ground. Roethlisberger has scored 25+ DK points in four of his last five games, as well. Antonio Brown hasn’t been enjoying his normal elite season, but he has still been producing extremely well. Through 12 games, he’s averaging 6.8 receptions for 85.7 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game. Brown has also seen 13 targets in each of his last three games, and he’s averaging 25.3 DK points per game over that span. He has also seen 16 red zone targets through 12 games this season. Jaylen Samuels will draw the start at running back for the injured James Conner this week. On the season, Conner is averaging 114.7 yards and 1.1 touchdowns on 21.1 touches (4.3 receptions) per game. While I don’t expect Samuels to completely take over for Conner, he could see the majority of these touches. He’s an extremely versatile player, totaling 195 receptions over his final three seasons at North Carolina State. Overall in those seasons, Samuels totaled 2,719 yards and 45 touchdowns. He’s a cheap option, who will slide into one of the best running back rotations in the NFL.
Philip Rivers/Keenan Allen/Mike Williams
The Los Angeles Chargers own one of the better passing attacks in the NFL. They rank eighth in the NFL in passing yards (274.0) per game, while also ranking sixth in passing touchdowns (28). They get an elite matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are allowing the second most passing yards (280.0) per game in the NFL this season. Cincinnati has also allowed 26 passing touchdowns, while recording only 11 interceptions this season. The Chargers are -14 point favorites in a game set at 48 points, and they own an implied total of 31 points on this slate.
Philip Rivers has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL this season, but he has also flashed tremendous upside. He’s averaging 284.8 yards and 2.3 touchdowns on 31.7 pass attempts per game this season. Rivers has also thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season, while posting over 20 DK points in eight of his 12 games. Keenan Allen has been enjoying a great season, but he has caught fire since the Chargers bye week. Before that week, it was known that Allen essentially demanded the ball from Rivers, and that’s what has been happening. Over his last five games, Allen is averaging 8.4 receptions for 98.0 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 11.4 targets per game. He’s also averaging 25.2 DK points per game over that span. Furthermore, Allen posted a 14/148/1 line on 19 targets in his last game, and he may be forced into a similar role with Melvin Gordon injured. Mike Williams has featured a plethora of ups and downs this season, averaging 2.3 receptions for 39.3 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 3.5 targets per game. Williams is a touchdown threat on a weekly basis, scoring two touchdowns in multiple weeks this season. He adds quite a bit of risk to this stack, but he also adds tremendous upside for a low price tag with low ownership to Rivers and Allen, who may be a bit chalkier.
Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce
The Kansas City Chiefs feature the best passing offense in the NFL this season. They’re averaging 317.0 passing yards per game, while also totaling a league-high 41 passing touchdowns. The Chiefs have thrown nine more touchdowns than the Indianapolis Colts, who rank second in the NFL. They get a terrible matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who are allowing only 194.0 passing yards per game this season. They have also held their opponents to only 16 passing touchdowns, although they have also recorded only five interceptions in 2018. Still, the Chiefs are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 53 points, giving them an implied total of 29.8 points.
Patrick Mahomes continues to make an elite option on a weekly basis, averaging 326.9 yards and 3.4 touchdowns on 35.8 pass attempts per game. He adds some rushing potential each week, as well. Mahomes has scored 30+ DK points in six fo his last seven games, and he’s averaging a slate-high 31.0 DK points per game this season. Tyreek Hill has been his favorite receiver this season, and he’s leading all receivers on the slate with 22.8 DK points per game. On the season, he’s averaging 5.5 receptions for 93.3 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on 8.3 targets per game. He’s coming off of his worst game of the season, but had previously scored 46.5 and 35.7 DK points in the two games before that, displaying elite upside, even for a high price tag. Similarly to Mahomes and Hill, Travis Kelce leads all of the tight ends on this slate with 21.3 DK points per game. He has been the top receiving option for the Chiefs this season, and he’s essentially an added wide receiver to this stack. He’s averaging 6.6 receptions for 90.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 9.5 targets per game. He has seen 13 and 15 targets in his last two games, scoring 42.8 and 31.7 DK points in those games. He’s an elite option at tight end, and this stack comes with as much upside as any stack in the NFL, even in a bad matchup.
High Upside GPP Stack
Case Keenum/Courtland Sutton/DaeSean Hamilton
The Denver Broncos have struggled to find consistent success with their passing offense this season. They’re currently averaging 233.0 passing yards per game, while also throwing for only 15 touchdowns. They get a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who are allowing only 241.0 passing yards per game this season. With that being said, they have also allowed 27 passing touchdowns, while recording only two interceptions. They have also allowed one of the highest opposing quarterback ratings (104.8) in the NFL this season. The Broncos are -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 45 points, and they feature an implied total of 25.3 points this weekend.
Case Keenum has struggled quite a bit this season, but he has also flashed some upside for his low price tag. Through 12 games, he’s averaging 246.1 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on 34.3 pass attempts per game. He has scored 20+ DK points in three games this season, and this is another matchup he can take advantage of. Courtland Sutton has been deemed the receiver of the future in Denver, and that was apparent when they traded Demaryius Thomas. He’ll be called upon to take over lead duties with Emmanuel Sanders getting injured in practice this week, though. Sutton is coming off of his best game of the season, posting a 4/85/1 line on seven targets, and he’s a potential candidate for double digit targets in this game. He also gets an elite matchup, which you can see in my WR/CB Matchup article. DaeSean Hamilton was one of my favorite mid-round receivers in the NFL Draft, and he’ll likely be forced into the slot role for the Broncos. He has seen only eight targets this season, but that could simply double this weekend. This is essentially taking a shot on two players that I was very high on coming out of college because they’re finally getting their shot in a great matchup in the NFL.
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