Welcome to my first BetKarma article. Top 3 NFL Spreads for Week 9 will outline my favorite three spreads in the NFL this week. The spread is how much a team has to either win or lose by. If a team is the favorite (-), they have to win by more than that number. When a team is the underdog (+), they can lose by less than that number. Lastly, if the game ends on the spread number, it’s a push, and you bet is refunded.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Green Bay Packers opened as -4 point favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers. They have received 88% of the bets and 85% of the money. With that being said, the line has moved a half a point in the Chargers favor.
Green Bay has been notoriously undervalued by Vegas this season, though. They boast a 6-2 ATS record, while covering the spread by an average of 3.9 points. Los Angeles has been overvalued throughout the season. They own a 2-4-2 ATS record, while failing to cover by an average of 3.6 points.
Green Bay features the fifth best run blocking advantage (21%) on the slate, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). They rank eighth in yards before contact (1.73), while Los Angeles ranks fourth last in yards allowed before contact (2). The Packers have also converted rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line on 54% of their attempts, ranking second on the slate. Los Angeles is also expected to be without their starting nose tackle and defensive tackle in Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones.
Green Bay’s success in the run game will allow them to control the clock throughout the game. Their rushing attack will also make it easier for Aaron Rodgers to find success off of play action. Los Angeles possesses a stingy pass defense on paper, but they rank 27th in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt (8.4). The Chargers defense will be tested by one of the most versatile offenses in the NFL, playing behind one of the league’s premier quarterbacks.
With such a small spread, the difference in this game could simply come down to red zone success. Green Bay ranks third in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage (66.7%) for touchdowns, while Los Angeles ranks only 25th (48.2%). The Packers also rank eighth in the league in red zone scoring percentage allowed (50%) for touchdowns. The Chargers rank 15th (55%) in the same category.
Green Bay has multiple edges in this game, while Los Angeles will have to rely heavily on home field advantage. Trading touchdowns for field goals with an offense as potent as the Packers is a recipe for disaster, though. I’ll take the healthier team, who has been playing significantly better football recently.
Bet: Green Bay -3.5 (-110)
New York Jets (-3) vs Miami Dolphins
The New York Jets opened as -6.5 point favorites against the Miami Dolphins this week. They have received 64% of the bets and 72% of the money, as well. The line has shifted noticeably toward Miami, though, as they are only three point underdogs at the moment.
New York hasn’t been covering the spread, posting a 2-5 ATS record through 7 games. Miami has also struggled, but boasts a 3-4 ATS record this season. Generally, the Dolphins are massive underdogs, allowing them to easily lose games, but still cover the spread. Overall, they are losing games by an average of 23 points in 2019.
Neither offense boasts much potential, but New York has shown flashes with Sam Darnold at thee helm. Miami, on the other hand, is averaging only 11 points per game this season. They are also dealing with injuries to Daniel Kilgore and J’Marcus Webb.
The biggest difference in this game is between the defenses. New York ranks ninth in the NFL in passing yards per attempt (7.1) and second in rushing yards per carry (3.3). Miami ranks only 31st (8.9) and 28th (4.8) in each category, respectively. The Dolphins also rank last in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They have posted a 5.22 adjusted line yards, which ranks last in the league. Furthermore, Miami ranks fourth last in the NFL in pressure percentage (18.1%), as well. Simply put, this is a “get right” spot for the New York Jets offense.
The final elephant in the room is the idea of the Dolphins tanking. Miami owns a -7.3 point differential in the first half, but that drops to -15.7 in the second half. In blowouts where scoring should come by easier, the Dolphins are averaging only 2.9 points per game in the second half. The Dolphins could potentially cover in the first half, but not full game.
The Jets shouldn’t be much larger favorites than they are now, and I wouldn’t have looked towards them in this article if they stuck as -6.5 point favorites. With that being said, there is now an edge at -3 points. This is a low spread to beat, especially with Miami coming off of a road game on Monday night, giving them a short week in a divisional game.
Bet: New York Jets -3 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Vegas line for this game was released late, so there haven’t been as many bets on this game as there have been on others thus far. The Kansas City Chiefs opened as -3.5 point favorites, but that total has quickly dropped to -1.5. This is a great spot to fade the public, as well, as 52% of the bets have been on Kansas City, while only 3% of the money has been on them.
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the better teams in the NFL against the spread, recording a 5-3 ATS record through 8 games. They have also covered the spread by an average of 5.1 points, which ranks third in the NFL. Kansas City owns a 4-4 ATS record, but have gone only 1-4 ATS over their last five games.
Minnesota has a clear path to victory in this game. They possess the biggest run blocking advantage (31%) on the slate, per PFF. Kansas City ranks last on this slate, allowing 2.26 rushing yards before contact. Minnesota ranks in the top-10 in the same category. They rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (4.9) per carry. Cook is an elite running back, and his success will allow Minnesota to control the game.
Another major factor in this game will be injuries. Adam Thielen looks as if he’s going to play, meaning Minnesota will enter this game nearly fully healthy. Kansas City will be without Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Eric Fisher, and Alex Okafor. Patrick Mahomes, Frank Clark, Chris Jones, and Kendall Fuller are all questionable for this game, as well. The biggest news will be about Mahomes, but I would expect him to miss one more game.
The Chiefs big play ability is always a concern, but Minnesota has the weapons to match them. The latter struggled with a one-dimensional offense early this season, but they have found a great medium recently, scoring 28+ points in 3 of their last 4 games.
Kansas City features one of the most difficult stadiums in the NFL to play in, but getting Minnesota at plus odds is an elite play this weekend.
Bet: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110)
