Welcome! Top 3 NFL Spreads for Week 10 will outline my favorite three spreads in the NFL this week. The spread is how much a team has to either win or lose by. If a team is the favorite (-), they have to win by more than that number. When a team is the underdog (+), they can lose by less than that number. Lastly, if the game ends on the spread number, it’s a push, and you bet is refunded.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs Buffalo Bills
The Cleveland Browns opened as -2.5 point favorites over the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has received 70% of the bets in this game, but they have only received 55% of the money. Cleveland is currently still a -2.5 point favorite, but that line has moved to -3 on some sportsbooks already.
Cleveland’s offense, specifically the offensive line and Baker Mayfield, has struggled throughout the season. Mayfield owns a 35.6% pressure completion percentage, per FantasyData. Buffalo ranks only 20th in the NFL in pressure rate (21.4%), though. Mayfield and the receiving group should be significantly more efficient in this matchup.
The Browns will also add Kareem Hunt to their team this weekend. He’ll take over for Dontrell Hilliard, who has played 20.2% of the offensive snaps for Cleveland this season. Surprisingly, Hillard played 40% of the offensive snaps last week. Hunt will be an immediate upgrade, and there may not be a better one-two punch than Nick Chubb and Hunt. Cleveland will be able to rely more on the run this week.
Hunt adds another dimension to the offense in the receiving game, as well. He’s a big play threat, and Mayfield will be able to appropriate utilize play action when Hunt is in the game over Hilliard.
On the other side, Josh Allen is completing only 24% of his pass when pressure, according to FantasyData. That’s one of the worst completion percentages in the NFL this season. Cleveland ranks as an above average defense in terms of pressure, as well.
Buffalo has relied heavily on defense in 2019. They have scored more than 24 points in only 2 of their 8 games this season. Those games have come against the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins. This will be a tougher test, and Cleveland’s offense should find more success with the added dimension of Hunt in the backfield. There’s always concern with Cleveland, but it’s time to buy low on them and sell high on Buffalo.
Bet: Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) vs Arizona Cardinals
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as -5.5 point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has received 64% of the bets to go along with 68% of the money. The line has shifted in toward the Cardinals and has become a bit more palatable with the Bucs being only -4.5 point favorites.
Tampa Bay’s offense should have a significant advantage over the Arizona defense this week. Arizona ranks 29th in the NFL in passing yards (280.7) allowed per game. They also rank 30th in the league in adjusted yards per attempt (9.5) and 32nd in opposing quarterback rating (118.4). The biggest concern with Tampa Bay’s offense is Jameis Winston’s gunslinger mentality. With that being said, Arizona has only recorded two interceptions this season, and Winston should boast a massive edge over their defense.
The Bucs could also see a boost from their running game this week. Ronald Jones has only played 31.7% of the offensive snaps in 2019. He has graded out as the 16th best running back in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, though. Bruce Arians recently stated that Jones will see more playing time, and he could add a new dimension to one of the best passing offenses in the NFL,
Arizona is a team that relies heavily on their running game to find success in the NFL. That is a recipe for disaster against Tampa Bay, though. They are allowing a league-low 78.1 rushing yards per game to go along with only 3.4 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has also faced plenty of high-level talent, including Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Chris Carson.
This game is likely to turn into a shootout, and Tampa Bay owns a massive advantage if that’s the case. The biggest key to this game, though, is Arizona’s inability to produce turnovers.
Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-105)
Green Bay Packers (-5) vs Carolina Panthers
The Green Bay Packers opened as -7 point favorites against the Carolina Panthers. They have seen 61% of thee bets and 53% of the money. This has pushed the line back to a favorable spot for Green Bay, as they are currently -5 point favorites.
Both teams have been undervalued throughout the 2019 season. Green Bay enters this game with a 6-3 ATS record, although they’re coming off of a huge loss against the Los Angeles Chargers. Carolina boasts a 5-3 ATS record, while coming off of a win against the Tennessee Titans.
Each offense should have a massive advantage with their rushing attack. Both run defenses have struggled throughout 2019, while Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams have all found success. Each teams ability to move the ball will result in plenty of red zone opportunities.
Green Bay and Carolina have found similar offensive success in the red zone this season. Green Bay ranks fourth in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage (67.74%), while Carolina ranks 10th (62.5%). Their defenses are a different story, though. Green Bay ranks sixth in the league in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (48.28%). Carolina ranks last in the NFL in the same category (69.23%).
I was on the wrong side of the Green Bay game last weekend, but the thought process is the same in this game. Carolina won’t be able to keep up with Green Bay if they’re failing to score touchdowns in the red zone.
An added bonus in this game is the quarterback play. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and Green Bay can lean on him if Carolina focuses solely on slowing down their rushing attack. The same likely can’t be said for Kyle Allen. This will likely be the biggest game in Allen’s career, and Carolina will struggle to rely solely on him if Green Bay constantly sends run blitz’s to slow down McCaffrey.
Bet: Green Bay -5 (-115)
