Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Jason Bales’s “Top 3 NFL Prop Bets” article. The title is rather self-explanatory. Each week, Jason offers three game or player props that he assesses as bet-worthy. Be sure to pay attention to the betting line. For those new to gambling, a negative number implies the bet is more likely to happen. If a bettor wagers $150 on a -150 betting line, the sportsbook pays out $100 if that bet cashes. If a bettor wages $150 on a +100 betting line, the sportsbook pays out $150 if that bet cashes. With that introduction out of the way, here are three NFL prop bets to consider this Sunday.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Davante Adams UNDER 80.5 Total Receiving Yards
(-115)
Davante Adams will play this weekend against the Carolina Panthers, but on Thursday, he participated in a limited practice due to his on-going toe injury. The player prop lines over at DraftKings Sportsbook are set as if Adams is fully healthy. The Panthers are ninth in the league in passing yards per game with 227, and while Aaron Rodgers is basically match-up proof, an injured Adams is not. The Green Bay Packers are currently betting favorites by 5.5 points over the Panthers. With Christian McCaffrey touching the ball 30 times per game, the Panthers should waste the game clock even when down on the scoreboard.
Additionally, the Packers are still attempting to figure out a safe distribution strategy for Aaron Jones and Adams. Jones, after receiving 8 targets in Week 8, dropped to 4 targets in Week 9. Adams earned 11 targets, as the Packers forced the ball to their star WR in his first week back. Jamaal Williams earned 6 targets in Week 9, as well. Rodgers is frequently looking toward his running backs and tight ends, and while Adams will be the main target on third downs, as well as in the red zone, his target distribution should lessen. Even with 11 targets in Week 9, he only gained 41 receiving yards. Until Adams is running at full speed in practice, bet under on most of his player props.
Trey Burton OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards
(-112)
Trey Burton continues to underwhelm Chicago Bears’ fans and fantasy owners each week. With Mitchell Trubisky struggling under center, it is difficult to put all the blame on Burton, especially considering he is garnering slightly under 4 targets per game. Last week, he earned 1 target, which ended up incomplete. Burton is still a talented tight end, though. His player props are down due to his unsuccessful 2019 campaign thus far, but he has over 15 receiving yards in four of his seven games played.
This week, the Bears battle their divisional rival, the Detroit Lions. The Lions are tenth-worst in the league in receiving yards allowed to opposing tight ends. Notably, opposing teams do not target tight ends against Detroit more frequently than other opponents. Rather, tight ends are getting open down the field against Detroit’s soft defense. Burton needs 1 reception to reach 16 yards this week. Trubisky is likely playing for his job at this point in the season, and he needs all the security he can find. Burton is a great security blanket against a porous Lions’ defense. As an added bonus, the Bet Karma projections model has Burton projected at 26.5 total receiving yards this week.
Trey Burton to Score a TD
(+500)
This is a long-shot, but as noted above, the Detroit Lions allow deep passes against opposing tight ends. The Bears need to win this game. The Lions are currently 2.5-point underdogs in Chicago, and throwing the ball down the field is a must if Trubisky wants to remain the starter for the rest of the 2019 season. The Bears showed explosive play potential last season, and Burton is fully recovered from a few nagging injuries. If he finds himself open down the field, and Trubisky doesn’t miss (a big if), Burton could find the endzone. This bet is a nice addition to the Trey Burton over 15.5 receiving yards recommendation. If he scores, he likely secures 16 receiving yards, as well.
