The Ultimate NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 11
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Insight: Falcons 26, Cowboys 22.5
Quarterback: This is potentially my favorite game on the early slate, and I think it has a pretty good chance of going over the 48.5 implied points. Dak Prescott has quietly topped 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games, and now gets a matchup with one of the top defenses we have attacked this season. Baker Mayfield lit this Falcons defense up last season, and I expect another 20+ points from Prescott in the dome this weekend, as crazy as that sounds.
Matt Ryan has topped 330 passing yards in his last four games, and he has been other-worldly at home this season. He’s viable in all formats this week but I probably would prefer to spend down a bit more my Quarterback, but the matchup gets even better for him should Sean Lee miss this game again for Dallas.
Running Back: Anyone that knows me knows I was very high on Ezekiel Elliott coming into the season, and I have him on a lot of my season-long teams and I could not be more excited that he gets this matchup this week. The Falcons have allowed under 20 fantasy points to an opposing running back just once this season, Adrian Peterson, and Nick Chubb shredded them both on the ground and in the passing game last week. I’m expecting a monster performance from Elliott, I’m just praying the offensive line is healthy come Sunday.
Tevin Coleman is a fine option, but he hasn’t flashed a ceiling yet this season. He has one game over 20 fantasy points, and I’m not considering him for cash games which makes it really tough to roster him overall.
Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper has seen eight and 10 targets in his last two games, and at his price he is going to be thrown into the cash game mix given that volume in a fantastic matchup.
Julio Jones is first in the NFL in receiving yards per game this season, but all you ever hear about is his lack of touchdowns. He’s scored in back-to-back weeks for the first time since 2016, and if you don’t go Michael Thomas or Odell Beckham, Julio is a top WR option this week.
Cash Game Outlook: Julio Jones, Zeke Elliott, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper
GPP Outlook: Calvin Ridley
Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Insight: Texans 22.5. Redskins 19.5
Quarterback: This is probably the most boring game on the entire Week 11 main slate, with a gross 42 O/U in Vegas and limited DFS options. I can see wanting to play Desahun Watson in tournaments because he can always run two in, but in this matchup he is not a cash game option for me, and he’s far down the tournament list. Alex Smith couldn’t get it done against the Buccaneers last week, and I’m not going to be targeting him in DFS given that the Redskins just want to run the ball.
Running Back: Lamar Miller has moved pretty much into a full-time split with Alfred Blue, and with D’Onta Foreman looming we can pretty much cross him off our list weekly moving forward. Adrian Peterson is the one Redskins player I can see playing with Chris Thompson looking unlikely to play again this week, but I think even that is a bit thin.
Pass Catchers: The one play I’m targeting in this game is DeAndre Hopkins who saw 12 of Watson’s 24 attempts go his way last week. I’m assuming that he will see a lot of Josh Norman, but volume over matchup every day for me and there’s nothing else to get excited about in this game.
Cash Game Outlook: None
GPP Outlook: DeAndre Hopkins
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas Insight: N/A
Quarterback: There’s no Vegas line on this game yet given we don’t know the status of Joe Flacco, and probably won’t until late Friday/Saturday night. Andy Dalton destroyed this Ravens defense in Week 2, but he no longer has any weapons and I can’t use him in fantasy. No Eifert, Green, and you can’t trust what you get from John Ross really ends up hurting his value.
The whole Flacco situation is a mess, even Lamar Jackson missed practice on Thursday with an illness. The fact is, if Flacco misses we are going to have to consider Jackson (or even RG3) at their prices on DraftKings in cash games against this Bengals defense. The Bengals have been gashed on the ground all season by running QB’s, and you would have to think Jackson’s floor is decently higher than a normal rookie just given his explosiveness in the run game. I’ll update my thoughts in my cash game article, but for now just know he’s in play.
Running Back: Joe Mixon was added to the injury report on Thursday, and Gio Bernard returned limited last week. If Mixon was unable to go, that would thrust Gio into consideration but for right now I’m off both of them and this Bengals offense as a whole.
Alex Collins is one of the hot-button topics this week, matching up with the Bengals who have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns over the last month. You don’t know if you can really trust the volume, but the matchup is fantastic and Collins is actually cheaper than Dion Lewis, or you can experiment playing both. I’ll update my thoughts in my cash game article on this exact topic.
Pass Catchers: With no AJ Green, you can look at Tyler Boyd from a volume standpoint but I’m not in love with this matchup and I think they are better mid tier plays this week. On the Ravens side, we have a lot of moving parts with not even knowing who will play Quarterback right now. I will tag John Brown as a tourney play, he always has upside, but I’m going to need to know who’s throwing the ball before I make any final decisions.
Cash Game Outlook: Alex Collins, Lamar Jackson (If Flacco Out)
GPP Outlook: Tyler Boyd, John Brown, Gio Bernard (?)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
Vegas Insight: Giants 27, Buccaneers 25
Quarterback: This is obviously one of the premier games of the week with a solid 52 O/U, but I see no possible way I can trust the Buccaneers side whatsoever after last week. I’m assuming that a lot of people will mark Ryan Fitzpatrick as cash playable this week, but I just can’t do it. The Bucs featured one of the best offenses in the NFL this season under play-caller Todd Monken, when Head Coach Dirk Koetter decided to take back play-calling duties last Sunday resulting in the Bucs scoring just three points. We have no official word on who will be calling the plays Sunday, and even if we got some how can I trust it? I want to play Fitzmagic in this matchup, but I won’t be risking it in cash games.
Eli Manning has actually been pretty good fantasy-wise against bad opponents this season, and that’s exactly what the Bucs are. They’re still a bottom-three pass defense and Eli is at home, with a full arsenal of weapons. I don’t think I can go there in cash, but I’d rather take a chance on Eli than Fitz at this point.
Running Back: The Bucs running back situation is a mess, and even if I knew who was calling the plays I wouldn’t be looking here. I’d rather just go through the air. On the other side, Saquon Barkley makes for arguable the top overall running back play of the week. He feels like a lock for 20 fantasy points minimum in this matchup, and he has reached 100 all-purpose yards EIGHT times already this season.
Pass Catchers: Mike Evans should be matched up on Janoris Jenkins, and the Giants have been really good against opposing WR1’s this season, so I can’t trust him in anything other than cash games, but if you were game-stacking the upside is certainly there. Given how good the Giants have been against 1’s, you could look at someone like DeSean Jackson instead who has definite home run ability with Fitz at the helm of the offense.
The Buccaneers secondary has been a sieve all season, which is going to put Odell Beckham at the top of the cash game list. You would prefer to get up to Michael Thomas, but if you had to drop down to Odell I wouldn’t be upset at all.
Cash Game Outlook: Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham
GPP Outlook: Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Insight: Colts 25, Titans 24
Quarterback: I can see this game going two ways, an offensive shootout or an ugly, low-scoring mess. The possibility that this turns into a 9-6 battle is what’s kind of keeping me away from the Quarterbacks in cash games, but I love both in tournaments. Both Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota are hot coming into this game, Luck has topped 20 fantasy points in six straight games including 22 against the Jaguars last week. Mariota finally looks healthy and this Colts secondary has been abused in recent weeks.
Running Back: Dion Lewis let us down as chalk last week, but he still out-carried Derrick Henry 22-11. Henry stole a 1 yard touchdown and then scored again from the wildcat to ruin Lewis’ chance of scoring, but the usage is what we want and he’s clearly been the guy all season. The Colts are second to last in the NFL in catches per game given up to running backs and the only thing last week did was keep his price down for another quality matchup.
Marlon Mack has ran like a man possessed recently, but the Jaguars were able to keep him in check as he ran for just 29 yards. This Titans run-defense has been other-worldly this season allowing just three touchdowns on the ground over the course of the season, so while I like Mack a lot I will be avoiding him here in a tough matchup.
Pass Catchers: One of my biggest misses of the season was Corey Davis last week and he’s not seen back-to-back 10 target weeks. He finds himself in the tournament range, especially if Taywan Taylor is unable to go for the Titans once again.
It makes sense to run Andrew Luck naked given how much he spreads the ball around, but I keep coming back to TY Hilton given the massive bump of red zone targets he’s seen this season. He’s third overall in the entire NFL in targets within the 10 yard line, and the Titans have given up some massive games to opposing WR1’s. You can look at Doyle in a GPP, but Ebron scored twice last week on just 11 routes run so it’s hard to trust that he can really smash with him being present.
Cash Game Outlook: TY Hilton, Dion Lewis
GPP Outlook: Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck, Jack Doyle
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Insight: Saints 32, Eagles 24
Quarterback: This is clearly the game of the week, with a 56 O/U in Vegas and we are going to want pieces to this game in all lineups. Both Quarterbacks fine themselves in the cash game range, Wentz has been playing like a Pro Bowler since returning from injury and while the Saints defense has played better in recent weeks they are still plenty attackable through the air. Brees has not needed to throw much since Mark Ingram came back, but this sets up as a heavy pass game for the Saints. This Eagles run-defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL and they are down so many bodies in the secondary that there’s no way Sean Payton won’t exploit them with a pass-heavy game plan.
Running Back: Running Back isn’t the most appealing spot in this game, especially on the Eagles side where we will continue to get the definition of a committee. This doesn’t set up as an Ingram game given how strong the Eagles are at holding the run, so you can certainly look at Alvin Kamara in GPPs. I would typically have him as a cash option, but with names like Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley in smash spots as well that would be tough to do this week.
Pass Catchers: Pretty much all of the pass catchers are going to be playable in this game, starting with the Eagles. Zach Ertz sticks out as the cash game option given his volume-heavy role in this offense, and with Alshon Jeffery expected on Marshon Lattimore we have to consider Golden Tate and Nelson Agholor. For the Saints, Michael Thomas is nearing borderline must-play territory given the state of this Eagles secondary, and I will be looking to jam him in all formats. I think Tre’Quan Smith makes for a very interesting leverage play off of Thomas in tournaments, he played a season-high in snaps last week and nobody in this secondary can keep pace with him.
Cash Game Outlook: Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith, Zach Ertz
GPP Outlook: Alvin Kamara, Nelson Agholor, Golden Tate