Super Saturday’s SuperDraft Super Selections for Sunday

Disclaimer: I notice there are some games with some weather/ wind concerns. My opinion is based on research, my assumed game script, multipliers and other factors. I am NOT factoring weather into my write ups. This is because I cannot accurately predict how the weather will be at a particular stadium on Sunday at the time of the game. The quality of a selection may be skewed if you factor in weather in your selections.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow (1.5x) faces the Titans in a game that should have some points in it. The Titans have showed the ability to allow quarterbacks to sling it all over the field, despite their 5-1 record. Joe Burrow is making a strong case for rookie of the year. The biggest reason that I like Burrow is his rushing upside. Not only does he have the ability to run with the ball, but the coaching staff WANTS him to run it when they are inside the five. They even opted to QB sneak from two yards out. He already has three rushing touchdowns this season. Perhaps this is an attempt to pad his stats for a rookie of the year race. Regardless, at 1.5x a six-point rushing touchdown becomes nine points! That is enough to separate him from the field if he performs with his arm as well. Overall, he is my favorite quarterback on SuperDraft.

Phillips Rivers (1.65x) is on the other side of father time. He looks every bit of 38 years old with nine children. Despite that, his multiple is too high. I know I am not factoring in weather; however, rivers will be playing inside of a dome. Dome games typically provide an uptick in offensive performance. Rivers does not have the rushing upside as other quarterbacks, but I have Rivers projected for three passing touchdowns and nearly 300 yards. My biggest reason for choosing him is because his multiple is very high. He is nearly 70% in passing this season. Detroit is not a stout defense and Rivers should be able to perform decently, especially in a game that I see them trailing, but within striking distance.

Fading Patrick Mahomes (1.05x) seems crazy on the surface. Mahomes’ Chiefs have a projected team total of nearly 35. They are massive favorites versus an awful Jet’s team. It is safe to say that if the Chiefs score a lot, then Mahomes will have a lot to do with it. Despite this, I am fading him because his multiple makes him not worth it. He would have to massively outperform other quarterbacks in order to keep pace on SuperDraft. I don’t anticipate him having to throw the ball late in the game. Couple this with his next-to-nothing multiple and I will gladly recommend fading Mahomes.

YOLO is the reason you would want to take Tua Tagovaiola (1.6x). Honestly, the only reason he is not a more secure play for me is because this is his true season debut. He clearly has rushing upside. He will be facing a Rams team that is solid defensively, but the Dolphins should be within striking distance for most of the game. If you are looking for leverage off of Joe Burrow in tournaments, then why not take a guy that has similar rushing upside at a better multiple?

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt (1.3x) is the easiest lock and load play for me on SuperDraft. The Raiders are bad against running backs. Nick Chubb is hurt. If you want to factor in weather, it would only mean more work for Hunt on the ground. There’s no reason for me not to love him at this 1.3x multiple. The Browns have the best offensive line in the NFL and the Raiders are the third worst tackling team in the league. There’s not much for me to go against Hunt in this spot.

As I was typing this, I got word that Joe Mixon has been ruled out. That opens up a dual threat running back in Gio Bernard (1.75x). This is a huge multiple for a back that is taking over the starting role. This game has a projected total of 53 points. Despite Cincinnati projected to be playing from behind, they are still projected to score points. I would enjoy the prospect of Bernard’s touchdowns being worth 10.5 points! Imagine if he scores two of them. Bernard at this multiple is too good to pass up. I also lump Jamaal Williams(1.65x) in this same boat, as Aaron Jones will not suit up.

Fading Alvin Kamara (1.05x) is something that I will do. I won’t enjoy doing it, but I am willing to. Because SuperDraft is only half point per reception, it makes Kamara less enticing. He also has a brutal matchup against an angry bears team in solider field. I combined these two factors with the fact that he does yield a lot of ground work to Murray. The extra .05 is just not enough for me to justify taking him over the plethora of running back options on this slate. I am sure he will get a good amount of work in this game, but I think he will have to work too hard to catch players like Bernard, Hunt, and even Gaskin (1.6x).

Keep an eye on the Seattle running back situation. The three top running backs are questionable or doubtful. If by some chance Deejay Davis(2x) is the lone healthy back, someone would have to fight me in order not to take him. I understand it’s a matchup against the 49ers. The Seahawks are the number one offense in the NFL. Russell Wilson does not score every single touchdown. The prospect of getting 12 points per touchdown and a legit full ppr with Davis makes me hope his teammates do sit.

Wide Receivers

There are a ton of receivers I like on SuperDraft. I will try to keep it short. Keenan Allen (1.4x) is my favorite receiver on SuperDraft. He has seen double digit targets in each game that he’s been healthy. I am not afraid of Denver’s defense when it comes to Allen’s skillset. His multiple is very good for a sure-volume receiver with a very good quarterback throwing it to him. Each catch will yield 0.7 instead of 0.5. If he catches nine balls, he will collect nearly two full points more than normal. Tack that on to the fact that each yard he gets will be worth more and I love Allen!

To prove to you, that I am not just simply fading 1x guys, I will present to you arguably the best receiver in the NFL. He is having balls thrown to him by the best quarterback of the last ten years. Devante Adams (1x) is so good. He is getting so much volume. He is so efficient that even at just 1x he is likely to outscore 80% + receivers on SuperDraft. The Packers enjoyed feasting on Houston terrible secondary. Shocking enough, they get to take on a WORSE secondary Sunday. Unless something weird happens, Adams will not sink your SuperDraft lineups. There is no salary cap, so he is not restricting you from getting anyone else you want.

What do you get when you have the starting receiver ruled out, facing a defense that allows teams to throw it all over the yard? You couple that with the fact that this opponent is likely to score points, causing you to have to throw the ball. You get Brandon Aiyuk (1.7x) This kid is really good. He also gets hand offs, as the 49ers aim to get the ball in his hands. I absolute love his multiple. 1.7x means that one touchdown for him will yield 10.2 points. If Jimmy G flashes the good side, Brandon Aiyuk should feast at this multiple.

I will present to you, the 2x crew. I am highlighting these players because they have a multiple as if they are the third, fourth or fifth option on their teams. Injuries have caused their projected roles to increase. Odell Beckham Jr. is finished for the year. This boost Rashard Higgins(2x) up in the pecking order. The Jets have their top two (by default) receivers out so Denzel Mims(2x) should naturally fall into some targets. The Jets should be trailing for a majority of the game, so there should be plenty of balls to go around. I do worry about the lack of possible touchdown for Mims. Dameire Byrd and Kendrick Bourne are 1.9x and their roles should increase. Harry and Edelman have been ruled out, so I struggle to figure out who else Cam Newton will throw to. Bourne will be on the other side of Aiyuk versus the Seahawks.

Stephon Diggs(1.4x) will be the receiver I will actively fade. He has a brutal matchup in a game that will be very ugly. His multiple is right around plenty of players that I like much better than him. Some of these guys are: AJ Brown(1.4x), Cooper Kupp(1.45x), Adam Theilen(1.4x) and the aforementioned Keenan Allen (1.4x)

Tight Ends

Darren Waller (1.2x) is my favorite tight end on other sites as well as SuperDraft. The Browns are very soft in the middle and Waller is one of the best athletes at the position. Even if the wind is a factor, Waller should still get a good number of close targets with the ability to run after the catch. I won’t go to in depth about him, because there isn’t much need to. I love him.

Hunter Henry (1.5x) is an interesting candidate. It doesn’t feel good writing up three players against a stout Denver defense, but these multiples are too good for the talent of these players. I see Henry being in the top five tight ends with raw scoring this week. If you give me that production with an additional 50%, then it’s difficult to pass up!