Super Saturday’s SuperDraft Super Picks
Quarterbacks
The NFC South has two back-up quarterbacks looking to make the start Sunday. Because they were named the starter prior to pricing, their multiplier is too high for their situation and matchup. Taysom Hill (1.8x) and Phillip Walker (1.85x) are in fantastic spots for their multipliers. I have these two individuals as my highest rated players on SuperDraft. Walker gets to face a terrible Detroit Lions defense that may be on the field more due to some of the key offensive weapons being ruled out. Walker has a very good trio of wide receivers to throw to so he should have no problem making you happy on SuperDraft. The news has broken that Hill will be the starting quarterback. He gets a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are not as bad on defense as people think, but Hill’s mobility should yield him a higher floor of fantasy points in this game. There is also always the chance that Jameis Winston comes in for some plays at quarterback and throws a pass or two to Hill. Hill, being a Swiss Amy knife makes him my favorite play on SuperDraft.
SuperDraft has done a good job at keeping a lot of quarterbacks’ multipliers down this week. They forgot to lower Alex Smith’s (1.7x). He gets a wonderful matchup against a terrible Cincinnati Bengals team. He threw for over 350 yards last week but did not score a touchdown. The Washington Football Team ran a lot of plays versus the Detroit Lions and I can see a similar game this week. The difference is that I think Alex Smith gets a couple of touchdowns to add to his already great ceiling.
Although the Detroit Lions like to throw the ball a lot, I will be fading Matthew Stafford (1.3x) here. With Deandre Swift ruled out, it would seem like he has to throw the ball a lot more in order for his team to succeed. The absences of Kenny Golladay and Danny Amedola will make this more difficult to him because he will be throwing to a plethora of back-up receivers. Carolina usually runs long sustained drives which may end up keeping Stafford off the field more than he would like. The multiple would be enticing if his receivers were healthy, but I won’t risk it here.
Running Backs
I will be going back to the well with Duke Johnson (1.85x). His multiplier is priced as if he is in a wind game again and it is too high. The only issue with playing against the Patriots is their clock control brand of football. The Patriots defense is not anywhere near as good as it has been early in the season, so Houston should have a much easier time moving the ball than they did in Cleveland. This one is simple for me. Johnson is priced as if he is still the backup and that simply is not the case. Simply put, I will likely be loading Duke Johnson in everything I build.
Kalen Ballage (1.7x) has emerged as sort of a bell cow for the Los Angeles Chargers. In their last game, he carried the ball 18 times and was targeted on throws six times. The Chargers’ running back situation has been weird and unsteady all season but if they are going to commit to giving Ballage 20+ opportunities, then I will be there for the ride. They are facing the New York Jets in a game that they are expected to win by a lot. I have a different opinion on that, but the fact remains that Ballage is a great play on SuperDraft. I predict that next game he will have a much lower multiplier as the industry begins to come around to him.
Antonio Gibson (1.5x) and JD McKissic (1.65x) makes it difficult for you to get one or the other. Gibson has been the starting running back for the better part of the last month. When he touches the ball, he is extremely dangerous. This young running back is extremely talented and should get the bulk of the work. McKissic is a very good receiving back, but Alex Smith will lead you to believe that he is Jerry Rice. Smith has thrown to him 29 times in the last two games. That is absolutely absurd. It makes it hard to trust Gibson because McKissic seems to be the go to receiving back. It’s hard to trust McKissic because I don’t think 14+ targets will happen every game. If I had to choose, I would lean Gibson because he should be the one getting the goal-line carries. I probably won’t touch this running back situation, but you should get good ownership whichever way you decide
Alvin Kamara (1x) will be an easy fade for me. There are a couple of reasons why. With Taysom Hill at quarterback, there is a lot more uncertainty for the success of this offense. If Hill is unsuccessful at moving the ball effectively, it will make it difficult for Kamara to get goal-line or red zone touches. We also know how Sean Payton loves to troll us in the red zone with Taysom Hill carrying the ball. The likelihood of this happening increases tenfold with Hill in on every single snap. If I am going to take a running back with such a low multiplier, I will just as easily plug in Dalvin Cook (1.05x) versus the Dallas Cowboys. The matchup is great! Cook is for sure the work horse running back. Although, he won’t get targeted as much as Kamara will be in most games, I can be certain that he will get the goal line carries. I can also be relatively sure that the Vikings will be able to move the ball against the Cowboys, which will allow Cook to have those opportunities.
Wide Receivers
Jakobi Meyers (1.65x) has a good matchup against Houston. Meyers being a good play will depend on how you think the game will play out. If the New England Patriots gets a two score lead, we will likely see them run heavy in order to run the clock. If Houston is ahead or is keeping the game competitive, New England will have to run a normal offense that involves passing. I think Meyers is in great shape to do will with his skillset and his high multiplier. He is one of Cam Newton’s favorite targets and I think he shows up big time if the Patriots need him to.
Robby Anderson (1.4x) and Terry McLaurin (1.4x) are two players with the same multiplier that I can see doing very well. McLaurin had a good fantasy game last week without getting into the end zone. If he had a similar workload and gets into the end zone, he will approach close to his ceiling because his touchdowns will be worth 8.4 points. Alex Smith seems to want to throw the ball a lot. The Cincinnati Bengals’ defense is not good, so I don’t expect much resistance from The Washington Football Team being able to run a lot of plays. McLaurin’s athleticism coupled with his usage makes him a fantastic play on SuperDraft. When it comes to upside, very few has the upside of Robby Anderson. Anderson has always been a big play threat since his days with the New York Jets. He has now incorporated the short and intermediate routes into his game which enhances his potential as a fantasy performer. He shares the number one receiver role with D.J. Moore because they are both talented wide outs. I think Robby Anderson gets into the end zone at least once to solidify his day.
Michael Pittman (1.85x) is a player that you would have to hold your nose to take. This is not because of his talent level, but because of his quarterback. Phillip Rivers spreads the ball around more than almost any quarterback in the league. He uses three tight ends, four or five wide receivers and two or three running backs each game to move the ball. Pittman’s advantage is that he is a big body that should be able to get position and pick up chunks of yards. The Colts will have to move the ball in order to keep up with the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are just an average coverage unit, so there may or may not be much resistance for the passing game. I am in love with this multiplier for Pittman because it makes him stand out over his teammates.
Devante Adams (1x) is good. He is very good. He is good enough to outscore everyone on the slate even without a multiplier. Things will have to break right for it to happen. He has 45 point upside, but against the Colts defense, I will not be banking on that personally. I will not argue with you if you want to take Adams because he has slate breaking capabilities and honestly, giving him any multiplier would be unfair to the game.
Tight Ends
What will I do without having Darren Waller to write up? I will go to the land of double H. Hunter Henry (1.4x) has a great matchup against the lowly Jets. If the game plays out the way Vegas thinks it will, then there will be plenty of red zone opportunities for Henry to take advantage of. Hayden Hurst (1.65x) has been blessed with a multiplier that makes him my favorite tight end play on the slate. That multiplier is too high for a tight end that has so many focal points surrounding him. Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones should be focused on. They play on the outside, so it should open up the middle for Hurst to take advantage of mismatches.
Dalton Schultz (1.95x) has a great multiplier. Andy Dalton is back and he enjoys throwing to tight ends as a safety valve. One touchdown for Schultz would yield over 13 points. This makes his ceiling extremely high in a game that Dallas should be throwing to either stay close or come back from.
Tyler Eifert (1.8x) will be a fade for me. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is elite and I don’t want to pray for Eifert to get into the end zone to hit is ceiling. I will pass on this enticing multiplier. With players like Schultz, and Logan Thomas (1.7x) in the same neighborhood as Eifert, there just is no need for me to go there.
