Welcome to another edition of Sriracha’s NFL Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays at each position for NFL’s Week 6 Slate. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores through our NFL Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s my favorite plays at each position.
| Quarterback | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: | QB/WR stacks |
| DeShaun Watson | A. Mattison | C. Ridley | M. Andrews | DET/JAC | Watson/Fuller |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | M. Davis | A. Thielen | J. Smith | ATL/MIN | Fitzpatrick/Parker |
| Matthew Stafford | M. Gaskin | K. Golladay | T. Hockenson | NYJ/MIA | Stafford/Golladay |
| Gardner Minshew | J. Robinson | R. Anderson | E. Ebron | GB/TB | Minshew/Shenault |
| Carson Wentz | K. Hunt | T. McLaurin | J. Graham | DEN/NE | Wentz |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
QB1: There are three QBs and only three I will be running in cash this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeShaun Watson, and Matthew Stafford. As mentioned in Sam’s article, these three quarterbacks should hold most of the ownership at the QB position. I expect Fitzpatrick to be the highest owned, as the Jets rank in the bottom 10 in major defensive categories. Fitzpatrick has to keep shining to keep his starting position as well with rookie Tua Tagovailoa waiting in the wings. Fitzpatrick has been consistent all season long and has had 3 rushing attempts in every game this season, along with 300+ yards in 3 of 5 games. In plus matchups, he has always performed and has had over 23 FDP in his last four games. After Fitzpatrick, I think Stafford will get that ownership, as he gets a plus matchup vs a struggling Jacksonville defense, who has been torched in almost every game this season by opposing quarterbacks and offenses in general. Stafford has yet to throw for over 300 yards this season but this game environment could definitely open up the doors for Stafford to have a huge week coming off a bye. On top of that, his top wide receiver Kenny Golladay will definitely benefit from a week off and looked very good in his two games this season.
The other QB I wouldn’t mind in cash is DeShaun Watson. Watson gets the harder matchup out of the three QBs I listed above, but he has the highest upside. He won’t see the same ownership as Fitzpatrick and Stafford, but he should still see a solid amount. Tennessee was able to slow down the Bills and contain Josh Allen but they still allowed the wide receivers to have a solid day. In 3 max lineups, I would run one of each of these quarterbacks. I’m personally running a 150 max this week, and I will have 40 Stafford, 40 Fitzpatrick and 20 Watson, and the rest on the other 2 below, for what it is worth. I see him as the more “tournament” play out of these 3 quarterbacks and I’m still skeptical on why Houston hasn’t let Watson run this season.
QB2/Value/GPP: If I had to give you 2 other QBs aside from the guys I listed above, it would be Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. Ryan has a great matchup vs the Minnesota Vikings who absolutely fell apart vs Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week. Don’t get me wrong, Ryan has been awful this season, with a 7:3 TD:INT ratio, and has only eclipsed 300 yards once this season. He’s been in great matchups too, but hopefully with the firing of Dan Quinn, they can switch up the playbook a little and let Ryan take more chances and call the shots. He could get an injured Julio back this week which would help a little, but if there was any time for a bounce back week, this would be the week.
I love Ben Roethlisberger as well, he’s been great all season, he’s thrown 10 touchdowns in 4 games and has only thrown one interception. This could be a sneaky GPP game, the Browns are stout vs the run as well which could force Roethlisberger to throw more if Conner and the backfield struggle. I like the pace of this game as well, and the Browns are always either extremely good on defense or completely fall apart- see Dallas 4th quarter vs Colts game last week.
Running Backs:
Mike Davis- Mike Davis has really made a name for himself and has proven that he could be a starting caliber RB in the league. His performance in CMC’s absence might have saved his NFL career, as he’s been one of the best running backs in the league not only in rushing but with his 30 receptions over 4 games. The Bears defense has been all over the place this season, and Davis has the tools to exploit this defense on the ground or with his great pass catching abilities. Unfortunately this will likely be the last week we can use him with CMC coming back, but he’s been very solid this year and will be my lock at RB, and he will be high owned.
Alexander Mattison is literally Dalvin Cook’s clone. They are both great running backs and with volume these guys have a ton of opportunities. This week, I expect Mattison to go for 20 carries/100 yards in Cook’s absence. Not only does he benefit from Cook sitting, he faces the Falcons who are awful. They have been one of the worst defenses in the league and Mattison has shown that he can take on a three down role. He will get extremely high ownership so I think you guys get the point here.
*Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry- will be very low owned but belongs in this 1A/1B tier, he is extremely pricey and I don’t think anyone will pay up for him in cash but he could definitely be the highest scoring RB on the slate.
If you choose to fade Davis and Mattison, there is great value in James Robinson, David Montgomery, Myles Gaskin, and Todd Gurley.
James Robinson disappointed big time for me last week, and although I was still able to cash, he held me back from a HUGE week. He has a chance to redeem himself in a positive game environment and a weak Detroit defense. He should be lower owned with all the mid-tier options this week.
David Montgomery- A lot of buzz about him this week but I think I’ll be going Myles Gaskin over him this week vs the Jets if I had to choose one. Montgomery will still be in my player pool and I will definitely expose myself to him on FanDuel where he is under 6k. He’s getting more work in the pass game which I like.
Myles Gaskin- Another cheap RB play with a good chance at exceeding value. He is in a great game environment and he’s clearly the top back in MIA. If they get ahead early Gaskin can get 20+ carries this week and the way Miami can move the ball when they get rolling will get Gaskin plenty of RZ opportunities.
Wide Receivers:
Obviously there are a ton of WRs you can play, but I’ll go over my top five this week, two top-tier, two mid-tier and one low owned GPP play.
Top Tier-
Calvin Ridley- The one week I could have taken a GPP down, Ridley dropped a big 0 for me. He’s a stud and he’s been hit with some minor injuries to start the season but he looked great last week and ran very crisp routes. I think that this matchup vs Minnesota is a dream matchup, and if Julio plays that helps his numbers statistically.
Kenny Golladay- Golladay has been hampered with a hamstring injury but coming off a bye week, he has the best matchup on the board. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been torched every week and Golladay has scored in both games he’s played in so far. He’s got a fair price tag and I will be having a good amount of him in my lineups this week.
Mid Tier-
Adam Theilen- Should be in the “top tier” but for formats sake he will be here. This is similar to Golladay’s matchup, Falcons are struggling to cover receivers just like the Jaguars. I couldn’t ask for a better matchup for Theilen and without Cook, there’s a chance they try to air the ball out more even though I still predict Mattison getting 20 carries.
A.J. Brown– He missed practice on Thursday but the beat reporters are predicting it is just for maintenance. Tannehill loves him and he is the number one guy for him. He is severely underpriced on FanDuel so if he does play, he could be pretty chalk, according to Sam’s ownership article.
Low owned GPP Play-
Jamison Crowder- Going to take a stand here. Even with Joe Flacco, Crowder still stood out and had a great game. He’s clearly the go to guy and the focal point of the offense, and he will go under owned for sure with the surrounding plays in that price range. He will quietly be one of the top scoring WRs this week. That’s my low owned GPP play of the week.
We went over QB, RB, and WR, and I included my game stacks in the table above.
Good luck this weekend!
