Welcome to another edition of Sriracha’s NFL Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays at each position for NFL’s Week 5 Slate. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores through our NFL Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s my favorite plays at each position.
| Quarterback | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: | QB/WR stacks |
| Patrick Mahomes | E. Elliott | D. Hopkins | T. Kelce | DAL/NYG | Mahomes/Hill |
| Kyler Murray | M. Davis | A. Cooper | E. Engram | CAR/ATL | Murray/Hopkins |
| DeShaun Watson | J. Robinson | W. Fuller Jr. | D. Schultz | JAC/HOU | Watson/Fuller |
| Teddy Bridgewater | D. Johnson | R. Anderson | G. Kittle | LV/KC | Carr/Renfrow |
| Joe Burrow | D. Freeman | L. Fitzgerald | Gesicki | BUF/TEN | Burrow |
Tilt your mobile device on it’s side for optimal viewing
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
QB1: Bit of a wild week to say the least. As of now when I am writing this article, we are uncertain about a couple games and whether or not they will be played on Sunday. On the bright side… we might get more days of football this week with the NFL in talks to move games to Tuesday and Saturday. Anyhow, with what we have to work with, I will prioritizing Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and DeShaun Watson. They will be the main 3 quarterbacks I will be running in cash games because of their safety they all provide. Mahomes is always consistent and he gets a nice matchup vs the Raiders who have improved this season but will be no match for Mahomes. I think that if you pay up, he will be your guy over someone like Lamar. The salary this week will be plentiful with RB having a lot of mid tier options which I will discuss later.
The other two QBs I love in cash are Kyler Murray and DeShaun Watson. *Jets were just sent home with a positive test, so the game is in jeopardy now. If the game gets moved/postponed, we’re left with only a few solid cash QB options, so I will add in that Dak Prescott is in play for cash games (I tried to limit it down to three cash QBs this week). Watson might be my guy this week, he gets a terrific matchup vs the Jaguars and this will be the first game without head coach Bill O’Brien. Hopefully the team under a new coaching style will let Watson run free again, as his rushing numbers have been very low across four weeks. The Jaguars are allowing 21.1 FDP to opposing quarterbacks, and they are one of the worst vs the pass and run. Watson hasn’t looked good at all this year, as he’s either thrown an interception or fumbled in every game so far, and has only eclipsed 300 yards once. On top of that, he’s only garnered up seven touchdowns through four weeks. This is a perfect “get right” spot and under their new head coach I’m excited to see what will happen with different play calling.
*I will not write about Murray as there is a high chance the game gets moved now.
QB2/Value/GPP: This whole section will be devoted to the one low end QB I will be using in a ton of my GPPs, Teddy Bridgewater. Alright hear me out here- the Falcons are really, really bad. Bridgewater has started to look a little more comfortable, posting solid numbers in back to back wins for the Panthers. He gets the opportunity to get a little winning streak going as the Falcons rank near dead last vs the pass and they got absolutely toasted by Aaron Rodgers last week. I’m not comparing the two at all, because Rodgers is in a completely different league than Bridgewater, but I love the upside here and hopefully the Falcons make this game a shootout. Love pairing him with Mike Davis & Robby Anderson.
Honorable Mention for GPP: Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan
Running Backs:
Ezekiel Elliott- Zeke is in play any given week, he simply has the safest floor out of all RBs with his usage in both the running and passing game along with his touches inside the 5. His high snap count guarantees opportunities to make plays and he’s the #1 option on the board right now, $800 more than any other RB. The Giants have not been amazing vs the run, but they are not horrible either. They gave up 113 yards to Benny Snell in week 1, gave up 2 touchdowns to SF running backs in week 3, and gave up 100 total yards to Montgomery in week 2. They show some dominance on the front line but still struggle with consistency. They had a solid week shutting down the Rams running backs but Zeke is matchup proof. I think I will be locking him in as my spend up at RB.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the “B” RB for me this week, he gets an even better matchup with similar usage to Elliott. CEH has only found the endzone once this season, but this could be the matchup that he finds the endzone multiple times. His volume has been consistent, he’s seen nearly 20 touches in every game this season and his involvement in the passing game is very encouraging. He provides a safe floor just based on his volume and the Raiders are the 5th worst vs the run.
*Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs- I just don’t like the game script for him here but he could get some touchdowns from inside the 5 that could salvage the day if the Raiders get down early.
I think this week there are plenty of mid-tier options-
If you choose to fade the top RBs, there is great value in James Robinson, David Johnson, Mike Davis and Antonio Gibson.
James Robinson is my favorite RB in the league right now. I loved him prior to the draft and he’s been a stud that is great at breaking tackles and finding space in between. He’s been involved in the passing game as well and the coaches seem to love getting him the ball. He is LOCKED for me this week vs a weak Houston front who ranks dead last vs the run. 100 yard game incoming.
David Johnson- Bill O’Brien always wanted to make it a priority to get DJ involved, because he wanted to make the trade look “somewhat worth it”. Now that he is gone, will this change? Will Duke Johnson see more time? Who knows. This is pure GPP play but based off matchup, the Jaguars are very weak vs the run and pass. He’s only had one good matchup like this, as last week he had nearly 100 total yards vs a weak Minnesota defense. I can see something similar but we need him to get in the endzone.
Davis is a great play this week. One of my favorites really. The Falcons are not bad vs the run, but Davis has played a CMC like role with his usage so far. With CMC out/injured, Davis has gotten 21 receptions on 23 targets, and 30 carries. This Falcons team will struggle with all these little screen passes and Davis gets the benefit of his backup who saw 12 touches last week sidelined due to an injury. Very close to running him in cash.
Wide Receivers:
Obviously there are a ton of WRs you can play, but I’ll go over my top five this week, two top-tier, two mid-tier and one low owned GPP play.
Top Tier-
Tyreek Hill- Hill has been consistent. He’s scored in every week and has had 5 receptions in 3/4 games. However he’s received only 6 targets in 3/4 games. The consistency is solid here for cash games and he always flashes slate breaking upside, and if there was any game for him to go off for a 3 touchdown game with a few long bombs, this would be the game.
Amari Cooper- He has seen nearly double-digit targets every week. I loved him last week and he put on a show with 12/134/1. He gets a bit of a tougher matchup vs the Giants this week but he may be worth the price tag here. The Cowboys just have awful defense and they seem to get themselves in these shootout games every single week, leading to good volume for the receivers.
Mid Tier-
D.J. Chark- Chark finally got himself going last week, finding the endzone twice and catching 8 of 9 targets for 95 yards. Houston was just torched by the Vikings duo of Jefferson and Thielen, giving up 100+ yard days for the two. They also allowed Cook to run for 130 yards on the ground. I can see this being a similar situation for the Jaguars, and I would not mind a Robinson/Chark stack here.
Will Fuller V- When he is healthy, he is one of the most electric WRs in the league. He has great hands and makes big catches when they need it the most. His targets have been alright, but hopefully this game environment will get him to see double digit targets again. He was the top receiving option for Houston and will continue to be while healthy.
Low owned GPP Play-
Robby Anderson- Quietly having a very solid season. Seen 100+ yards (one was 99) in all but one game this year, and I’m really liking his target share, which is higher than DJ Moore’s. He seems to get along with Teddy and they have that chemistry already. Anderson has always been that big play guy when it comes to the long bombs and ATL is the team I can expect to give up the occasional 50 yard reception down the field for a touchdown. They are horrid when it comes to pass defense and I hope this game has a shootout game environment as well.
That’ll be it for me for the third ever NFL DFS Game Theory!
We went over QB, RB, and WR, and I included my game stacks in the table above.
Good luck this weekend!
