Welcome to another edition of Sriracha’s NFL Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays at each position for NFL’s Week 4 Slate. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores through our NFL Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s my favorite plays at each position.
| Quarterback | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: | QB/WR stacks |
| Russell Wilson | A. Kamara | D. Hopkins | T. Kelce | DAL/CLE | Wilson/Lockett/DK |
| Kyler Murray | K. Drake | T. Lockett | T. Higbee | SEA/MIN | Murray/Hopkins |
| Lamar Jackson | J. Robinson | D. Parker | M. Gesicki | CAR/ARZ | Jackson/Brown |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | A. Ekeler | C. Lamb | T. Hockensen | JAC/CIN | Fitzpatrick/Parker |
| Phillip Rivers | D. Freeman | L. Fitzgerald | Gronkowski | IND/CHI | Rivers |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
QB1: There are four solid QBs I wouldn’t mind using in cash this week, but let’s go over who I think will be the MVP this season. Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. This SEA/MIA game should be a complete shootout, similar to what we saw last week. Wilson is reaching a high price point due to his performances through three weeks. He has thrown 14 touchdowns through week 3 as well as 20+ rushing yards per game and almost 300 passing yards per game. The Seahawks are playing at an incredible pace and Wilson has been tearing it up. He gets the Dolphins, who struggle on the defensive end. They rank in the bottom 10 in defense in almost every category. If Carson doesn’t play, expect Russ to get even more carries on the ground as well. He’s as safe as it gets, and I’ll talk about a hedge play in GPPs in the next few paragraphs. The next QB I would use in cash is Lamar Jackson, as he is primed for a bounce-back game after honestly a horrid performance vs the Chiefs. He gets a solid matchup vs WAS but his price is pretty hefty. I always say that Lamar is always in play in every format. He can always rip out a 100 yard rushing game with a couple TDs in the passing/running game and completely break the slate. However, I definitely lean Wilson>Jackson.
The other two QBs I love in cash are Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. In cash I want to definitely pay up, but my top GPP play (next paragraph) is on the cheaper end. Murray gets a solid matchup vs the Panthers who have been a mid-tier defensive team. The similar theme here for all the QBs I wrote up is their rushing floor. These four QBs all get five carries per game at the least and all have wheels to make big plays happen. Murray will get some ownership since he has similar upside to Lamar and Russ, while still sporting the same floor. I don’t mind running a “naked” Murray in cash this week. Keep an eye out for Hopkins news. Josh Allen will be the lower owned of these four I wrote up, and I will be running a “naked” Josh Allen for sure in some lineups. He has slate breaking potential and the Bills love running it in with him in the red zone. He has seen a rushing touchdown in two of his three games thus far. On top of that, he’s thrown for 300 yards each game along with four touchdowns in two of his three games. In cash, you should definitely get one of these QBs to get you started.
QB2/Value/GPP: This whole section will be devoted to the one low end QB I will be using in a ton of my GPPs, Ryan Fitzpatrick. He gets the benefit of the pace of Seattle and will be facing a positive game script for a QB. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw over 35 times this game. He also has some rushing floor upside but I wouldn’t make that the reason I play him. He will see this Seattle secondary that is the worst in the league to date and boy oh boy did they struggle vs the Dallas WRs. Gallup went for 6/138/1, Cooper went for 9/86, Lamb went for 5/65, and Cedrick Wilson went for 5/107/2. They got torched all over the field, but continued to contain the run. Although Miami doesn’t have the same offensive weapons, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki should have big days if Fitzpatrick has to throw the ball over 30 times to get them in the game. He is my TOP GPP play of the week.
Running Backs:
Alvin Kamara gets a dream matchup vs the Lions this week and it has been really hard building a lineup without him in it. He’s had two TDs in every game so far, and he’s gotten 8,9, and 14 targets in the passing game. Some of these games were without Michael Thomas, who should be back this week. Does this change my viewpoint on Kamara? No, I still love his upside and floor here. He is the top RB for me this week. Detroit is one of the worst vs the run.
Dalvin Cook is the “B” RB for me this week, he gets an even better matchup with similar usage to Kamara. Cook has scored in every game this season but his role in the passing game has been little to none so far. It is encouraging that he got five targets last game and the script of this game should lead to a little more involvement in the passing game. He has a safe floor and will always be the red zone option for the Vikings.
I think this week there are plenty of mid-tier options-
If you choose to fade the top RBs, there is great value in Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K. Drake, A. Ekeler, J. Robinson, D. Henderson and M. Davis.
Jonathan Taylor gets a nice matchup vs the Bears who just gave up 150 yards to the Atlanta backfield. Taylor has good usage but the price is definitely catching up to him. He missed out on carries as the game got out of hand quick, but this is a good GPP play that will see low ownership IMO.
CEH is the ultimate GPP play, I don’t think he sees high ownership yet he gets insane volume. He just doesn’t have enough opportunities to find pay dirt when he has a young GOAT Patrick Mahomes in front of him. If CEH can find the end zone this week he can easily have a 20 FP week.
Drake is intriguing because he hasn’t had that pop off game yet and his touches and volume have been there. There is going to be a game where he scores two touchdowns and goes for a 100 total yards, and this is the game environment we want. Will it happen here? Who knows, but he is in the best possible spot for that to happen. Sounds like the same write up as last week for Drake, the pop off game is coming!
James Robinson is one of my favorite plays this week. I drafted him in every league and I was able to trade him away for Cooper Kupp in my season long league as I needed a WR. He gets a tasty matchup vs the Bengals who have been awful against the run. Robinson getting involved in the passing game is very encouraging. We only expected Chris Thompson to see these targets but they are getting both involved. I expect him to have a big week whether JAX gets ahead or behind early.
Wide Receivers:
Obviously there are a ton of WRs you can play, but I’ll go over my top five this week, two top-tier, two mid-tier and one low owned GPP play.
Top Tier-
DeAndre Hopkins- I love the idea of a Murray/Hopkins/Drake three man stack. Hopefully Hopkins suits up, as he’s missed practice this week leading up to the publishing of this article. I think he will suit up, and he will always be in play if he’s playing.
Tyler Lockett- This man hurt me last week so bad! I played Russell Wilson and Metcalf over Dak and Lockett and that cost me some big money. Luckily, Russ got the game winner to Metcalf and got me into the green. Lockett scored three times last week, and that won’t happen every week of course. I can definitely see him scoring again this week vs Miami’s weak secondary.
Mid Tier-
Amari Cooper- He has seen nearly double-digit targets every week. He has nearly touched 100 yards every week, but he has not found the end zone yet, which has limited his upside. He gets another good matchup vs the Browns and if he can find the end zone he could be one of the top five WRs this week.
DeVante Parker- Here is my GPP guy to pair with Fitz. If Fitzpatrick goes off, you bet one of his TDs are going Parker’s way. I will be running this GPP duo in my tournaments this week for sure. I want this exposure to Miami for this shootout.
Low owned GPP Play-
AJ Green- The big week is coming folks. It is coming. I can feel it! JAX allowed a 90% completion rate to Miami last week, a 90% completion rate! AJ is on pace for 150 targets this year and this is the perfect game to get him going and get him in the end zone. He should be low-owned and I think he will be sneaky!!
That’ll be it for me for the third ever NFL DFS Game Theory!
We went over QB, RB, and WR, and I included my game stacks in the table above.
Good luck this weekend!
