Welcome to the first edition of Sriracha’s NFL Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays at each position for NFL’s Week 1 Slate. You can find all of Karma’s staff cores through our NFL Premium Package . Without further ado, here’s my favorite plays at each position.
| Quarterback | RBs: | WR: | TE: | Game Stacks: | QB/WR stacks |
| Lamar Jackson | C. McCaffrey | M. Thomas | Kittle | TB/NO | Allen/Diggs |
| Josh Allen | Josh Jacobs | C. Godwin | Waller | LV/CAR | Lamar/Hollywood |
| Carson Wentz | Austin Ekeler | K. Allen | Ertz | CIN/LAC | Wentz/Jackson |
| Drew Brees | James White | A.J. Green | Henry | PHI/WAS | Brees/Thomas |
| Mitch Trubisky | Marlon Mack | Marvin Jones | Hockensen | CLE/BAL | Trubisky/Miller |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks:
QB1: Lamar Jackson will always be a top option whenever he is on the slate, and quite frankly with the closest QB (Russell Wilson) whole 1k cheaper, Lamar should be pretty high owned. There isn’t another QB that can match his upside, but if I were to play 150 lineups, I’d play Lamar in about 30. This is mainly due to it being week 1, I can see a lot of different scenarios and there are a ton of solid games with pace and pass first offenses.
QB2/Value/GPP: There are a ton of other QBs I love that can exceed pt/$ value, such as Josh Allen, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Derek Carr, and I will even throw in a few Joe Burrow lineups. It will be a shootout in New Orleans, as Tom Brady suits up for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the first time. It is going to be very weird seeing him in a different jersey, but he now has elite weapons in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and old friend Rob Gronkowski. I can see this game in the superdome being a shootout, and I’ll definitely have exposure to both sides (which we will get into later), but I’ll probably be prioritizing Brees and limiting my exposure to Brady, as I see higher upside in a guy like Josh Allen or Carson Wentz who are only a couple hundred more. Allen really catches my eye, he’s been in good shape, he’s been getting good reports from camp and he’s apparently looking sharp. On top of that, he finally added a top tier WR talent, no disrespect to John Brown, who is also very solid in his own right, but Stefon Diggs should be a great boost to Allen’s fantasy game and the Buffalo Bills team in general. I would rank my QBs like this- Lamar/Allen/Wentz/Brees/Carr and that’s in order of exposure as well.
Running Backs:
Christian McCaffrey will always be a top option alike Lamar on any slate, because he’s basically matchup proof, but he touches 10k on FanDuel which is right for a player of his skill. He gets this porous LV defense, and McCaffrey like Lamar has the highest upside over any other player at his position. I can’t say to fade or play him, quite frankly I’ll have to jam him in due to his sheer slate breaking upside. To afford him you’ll have to get some value RBs and/or WRs, and to pair with CMC I like James White a lot. Sony Michel is expected to be eased back, and White should garner some more looks his way. At his cheap price point we will take the safety here especially on DK where it is a full PPR.
If you choose to fade CMC, I would really want two solid mid tier RBs. I’m looking to Josh Jacobs and Austin Ekeler. Jacobs has a great matchup vs the Carolina Panthers, and I expect Jacobs to have a HUGE year. Carolina ranked 29th in the league vs the run last year. Ekeler will take over as the RB1 for the Chargers, and I expect him to have a nice year for PPR leagues as well. Obviously we know his pass catching abilities but I’m interested to see how durable he will be as their main RB this year. The Bengals ranked dead last in the league vs the run last year, and I don’t expect those numbers to drastically change. These are my top two RBs if I were to pay for two mid tier RBs rather than CMC.
Wide Receivers:
Obviously there are a ton of WRs you can play, but I’ll go over my top 5 this week, 2 top tier, 2 mid tier and one low owned GPP play.
Top Tier-
Michael Thomas– Elite matchup, always consistent and good for all formats. Can’t go wrong with him ever, it’s just will he produce enough to get you the value you need out of him. In a potential shootout, he will be worth the price tag.
Chris Godwin- Will likely absorb the tougher matchup but still has good upside. He’s a pivot but will have to attract Lattimore as Mike Evans seems less likely to play.
Mid Tier-
Allen Robinson- He is underpriced a bit on FanDuel, he’s 7,200, and has always had consistent target share and volume. Hopefully Trubisky has gotten a little more accurate and ARob can get some more receptions this year. It starts vs the Lions defense who I’m not scared of/avoiding. They ranked last in the league vs the pass last year and their defense is still looking porous.
Keenan Allen- Personally one of my favorites. He will quietly have a big year imo. Tyrod will have his struggles but Keenan will be a safety blanket for him and he has focused on keeping his body in shape year round. It starts with a good matchup vs the Bengals.
Low owned GPP Play-
AJ Green- Bounce back year anyone? I really like this guy and I think this could be a great value play. He’s dealt with so many injuries in the past that have caused him to miss a plethora of games, but if he can stay healthy I can see him having a great year under new QB Joe Burrow. I love this GPP stack of Burrow/Green/Mixon, Chargers defense took a big hit losing Derwin James. AJ Green should have plenty of volume to work with on Sunday.
That’ll be it for me for the first ever NFL DFS Game Theory! We went over QB, RB, and WR, and I included my game stacks in the table above. Good luck this weekend!
