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Intro
There are certain types of contests such as head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as other daily fantasy sites where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on. When playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it. They fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea. Playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the minimum $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 8 Slate Review
Last week was a very wild week in which there were some blow up spots as Dalvin Cook went off for 4 total TDs (3 rush, 1 receiving) for over 50 fantasy points and the Dolphins D crushed the rams with 2 DST TDs and multiple turnovers to score over 20 fantasy points on their own. I can’t be 100% sure but I think if you have both of those plays it was extremely hard to not have cashed. I was not on Dalvin, despite a good friend of mine from our Karma discord telling me to play him (shoutout Jake), and I instead chose to eat the chalk with the likes of Derrick Henry, who was fineish, while also having heavy exposure to Darrell Henderson and Gaskin… which did not work as Gaskin was fine not great while Henderson got hurt in the first quarter and never returned. Injuries plagued the slate and I was not able to dodge hardly any as I had Jimmy G in cash (fish), I paid up for Kittle (brutal), and somehow played Diontae Johnson when he got hurt for what seems like the 84th time in 8 weeks of play. The picks were so-so again as Burrow/Russ/Kupp/Fant all had good outings but Lamar never got a ton going, Jonathan Taylor continued to not get the lead back treatment, Lockett took the week off so DK Metcalf could go FULL MAN, and AJ Green/Waller/Jonnu Smith were more or less busts. I think the main takeaways are matchups are definitely important and relevant, but similar to some WRs (Julio/Davante/Michael Thomas, etc), some RBs are more or less matchup proof and we should always consider the best backs week in and week out no matter the game script, total, or other factors… we’ll see that in the article this week for sure! Onto Week 9 which once again presents a ton of injuries and unknowns…
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Russell Wilson/Josh Allen/Deshaun Watson – What really needs to be said about Russ that we don’t know? He’s arguably the best QB play on the slate every week, no matter the matchup, as he leads the league among QBs in points per drop back (tied with Kyler Murray), and now faces a Buffalo team that traditionally has a strong defense but has been very underwhelming this year. They have Tre’ White but other than that, they have been weak, ranking 22nd per DVOA against the pass. When we’re looking at DVP (defense fantasy points allowed by position), the matchup doesn’t stick out per say, but Russell Wilson is not an average QB and is an elite play in all formats. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen hasn’t had his “best” stuff over the last few games, at least in my opinion, but he now gets the Seahawks defense that has given up 400 yards of offense in almost all games this year and is giving up on average of 29.1 DK points per game to QBs during the course of the season. They generate almost no pass rush on top of that so Allen should easily have a clean pocket majority of the game and give the expected scoring, I think Allen keeps his foot on the pedal all game. Lastly, Watson is probably my favorite QB of the week as I think people are aware of his talent and how bad the Jaguars defense is, but these teams also rank 9th (Jags) and 4th (HOU) in pace of play with a healthy 50 point Vegas implied total. The Jags are giving up an average of 26 fantasy points per game to QBs over their last 4 games, rank dead last in DVOA against the pass, and despite a very poor Houston offensive line, the Jags are second to last in adjusted sack rate, with only 6 total on the season, so I expect a clean pocket most of the game for Deshaun.
Favorite Leverage Options: Ben Roethlisberger (3.8% on DK, 4.0% on FD)/Kirk Cousins (3.0% on DK, 2.8% on FD)/Derek Carr (3.9% on DK, 3.9% on FD) – I think there is going to be more concentration than usual at QB this week so I wanted to give out a few more options than usual and I don’t expect any of them to garner hardly any ownership. First, Big Ben doesn’t carry the rush upside of some of the elite QBs in the league, but he’s facing what could honestly be the worst, or one of the worst, teams in the league with a defense that is giving up on average 396 yards of offense through 8 games. Couple that with Dallas ranking 27th against WR1s, 31st against WR2s, and 31st against the TE position shows me that Ben has a lot of routes to success along with the Steelers 4th ranked offensive line (per Brandon Thorn) compared to Dallas’ 20th ranked defensive line. I never play Kirk Cousins, ever. I am a big hater of his but this matchup really does not get much better. Per Wes Huber of FantasyPoints, it’s interesting to note how much more successful Cousins is against a Cover 1 defense, which he faces against the Lions this week as he sees a 20% boost in Yards per Attempt compared to other defensive coverage schemes. The Lions don’t generate very much pressure and even though the Vikings do have a poor offensive line and in general play at a slow pace, the Vikes have at least increased their pace a little bit in the last few games as they have averaged 55 plays per game full season versus about 60 in their last 4 games. Cousins is at least above average in points per drop back, (14th among QBs) and has upside when facing a very underwhelming pass defense. Derek Carr was on track to be chalk last week and then it seemed like no one wanted to play him later in the week. He hasn’t been that spectacular this season per the eye test, but he does have over an 80% adjusted completion percentage, a 14/2 TD/INT ratio, and ranks 12th among all QBs in points per drop back. The Chargers have a solid defensive line, but have been quietly torched by QBs, giving up on average 24.5 fantasy points to QBs during the full season and 27.2 points over the last 4 weeks to QBs. For some reason Gruden is set on Jacobs not catching a ton of passes, so while Jacobs also has a solid matchup, I like Carr’s upside here in which the Chargers’ faster pace should give the Raiders more plays in an effort to keep up with Justin Herbert and company.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Dalvin Cook/James Robinson/Chase Edmonds/Derrick Henry – I wasn’t on Dalvin last week, as I mentioned above, at what was pretty low ownership so while it sucks going back there now when he’s probably going to be the highest owned RB on the slate, the Lions give up 8 more points than the average against RBs, Dalvin leads the league in forced missed tackles (29), and is garnering over 20 rush attempts and 2-3 targets per game. He’s the guy that Zimmer wants to run the offense through as he ranks 3rd among all RBs in red zone rushing percent, 2nd among RBs in points per snap, 6th in points per touch, and the 8th most High Value Touches (“HVT”) per game among RBs with 4.7. James Robinson was already such an integral part of the Jags offense but now they’re starting a rookie QB, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Robinson adds onto his 15-18 rush attempts and 4-6 targets per game against a god awful Houston defense. On the season, Houston has given up an average of 33.1 fantasy points per game to RBs, and they rank 27th per DVOA against the rush and 26th against RB receiving, giving up an average of 41 RB receiving yards per game. I think Robinson is very viable to be the run back option in any Houston stacks. Man I hope Kenyan Drake sits because Chase Edmonds is just flat out the better back. Even with Drake playing, Edmonds was averaging 4.4 targets per game and in terms of efficiency, Edmonds ranks 12th among RBs in points per snap, 1st in points per touch, and actually has 27 HVTs on the season, despite not even being the starter the first 8 weeks. Miami is quietly very solid against the pass, ranking 3rd in the league per DVOA behind their very solid outside corners, but they are dead last in DVOA against the rush and have given up the 8th most fantasy points per game to RBs. I spoke above about not shying away from elite RBs despite the matchup and this is the very case with Derrick Henry. The Bears have a great defense in general, allowing the 10th least amount of fantasy points per game in total, but they have allowed 22-23 fantasy points per game to RBs. These teams both play at a decent pace (Titans 2nd fastest in the league, Bears 16th), and with how bad this Bears offense is, I expect the Titans to have the ball a lot and work on running through Henry and giving him 25+ touches instead of trying to take on the Bears secondary.
Favorite Leverage Options: Christian McCaffrey (5.4% on DK, 5.4% on FD)/Justin Jackson (6.7% on DK, 6.6% on FD)/Antonio Gibson (2.9% on DK, 5.2% on FD)/Nyheim Hines (1.9% on DK, 1.2% on FD)/D’Andre Swift (11.7% on DK, 12.6% on FD) – It’s not every week, or really any week, you get to write up Christian McCaffrey as a leverage option so we have to take it. Maybe CMC comes in higher owned than I think but it really seems like people are taking the pass with him being the most expensive and the options of Cook, Henry, Edmonds, and Robinson sitting cheaper. I could certainly be wrong, but I really don’t know why the Panthers would bring back CMC this week if he was not fully ready to go and ready to take on an 80+% workload for the team with how strong Mike Davis has been in his absence. The Chiefs pass defense is strong, but their rush defense is not, as they rank 28th against the rush per DVOA, and have given up an average of 40.3 RB receiving yards per game. I don’t need to tell you how good CMC is but in <2 full games this year he has 14 HVTs, 4 rushing TDs, 9 targets, and over 20 rushing attempts in each game. I didn’t expect it when Ekeler went down several weeks ago, but Justin Jackson has kind of taken over a majority role in this offense. Jackson hasn’t scored a rushing TD yet, but is averaging 3.8 targets per game, 9-12 rush attempts per game, and is averaging about 3 HVTs per game. There’s always the threat of Kelley/Pope taking high value touches and getting some work in this game, but I think Jackson should receive at least a majority and at sub 5k on DraftKings and sub 6k on FanDuel he faces the Raiders who have given up nearly 30 points on average to RBs this season so he doesn’t need to explode to give you some serious value. I was on the Antonio Gibson train all year, then faded him in Week, where he went off. Tilting, but we move on. Gibson is very underrated, as he has 22 forced missed tackles this year (22, accounting for 26.2% of his total rush attempts), ranks 8th in points per snap, 17th in points per touch, and getting 12-15 rush attempts per game along with 3-5 targets per game. I think his price is too cheap for what should be a slow and probably ugly game, but against the Giants who don’t stop anyone and have given up the 4th most RB receiving yards per game this season (52.6 yards per game). Maybe I’m just chasing, but Hines seems like a good dart if you want to get very contrarian and play some chalk with the rest of your lineup. Frank Reich has decided that Hines will maintain a significant role in the backfield and although only getting 4-6 rush attempts per game, he’s averaged 4-6 targets per game as well, which actually ranks 4th amongst all RBs for percent of his team’s targets. Hines has a low floor, but he ranks 4th in points per snap, 3rd in points per touch, and has a whopping 32 HVTs this season, good for 4.6 per game (11th among RBs). Maybe Matt Patricia won’t be an idiot this week and use Swift instead of Peterson? Probably not. Despite questionable coaching, he narrowly leads the Lions RB in snap share and is getting 4.1 targets per game, has 5 red zone targets, and has managed 4 rushing TDs on the year in a 3-man backfield. Similar to Hines, he is very efficient with his limited touches, ranking 4th in points per snap, 2nd in points per touch, and has been given 31 HVTs this season, good for 4.4 per game so another low floor/high, high upside play.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Keenan Allen/Tyler Lockett/Julio Jones/Stefon Diggs – Finally, DK took Allen out of the 6k salary range but he’s probably still too cheap. He’s averaged 10.1 targets per game this season, 9.3 targets over his last 4 games, and should easily crush his CB matchup in Lamarcus Joyner. Allen has 14 red zone targets on the year, 4th among all WRs on the slate, and I don’t see any reason to fade him despite high expected ownership. Well it’s an odd number NFL week so it must be Lockett’s turn? It’s pretty crazy how him and DK Metcalf literally switch off every week, but Lockett does have the far superior matchup this week in the slot where he’ll avoid Tre’ White. Lockett has 9.1 targets per game and should go against Taron Johnson, who has given up 1.8 yards per route covered, as Buffalo has a below average pass defense per DVOA, ranking 22nd. Ridley will most likely sit this week as the matchup isn’t too difficult for the Falcons and they have a bye in Week 10, so we could very well be in line for a 20 target Julio explosion game… The Broncos do have a solid pass defense, ranking 10th in DVOA, but Julio is matchup proof and with Ridley playing, Julio has averaged 9.7 targets over his last 4 games. Now, with Ridley out, 22% of the Falcons targets need to go somewhere and in his 4 healthy games this year, Julio has averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game. He is an elite play in all formats. Lastly, we have Diggs, who gets the aforementioned bad Seattle defense and he’s the clear alpha in this Bills offense. Diggs is averaging 11 targets per game over his last 4, and 30% of the Bills target share/41% of the team’s air yards share this season. With a whopping 18 red zone targets this year, the 7th highest yards per route run among WRs on this slate (2.37), and the Bills most likely needing to keep pace with the Seahawks high powered offense, he makes for a very difficult fade in cash/single entry/3 max entries.
Favorite Leverage Options: Justin Jefferson (4.8% on DK, 4.1% on FD)/Corey Davis (3.3% on DK, 4.0% on FD)/Cole Beasley (4.5% on DK, 7.9% on FD)/Mike Williams (7.0% on DK, 5.8% on FD)/Diontae Johnson (8.6% on DK, 7.6% on FD)/Randall Cobb (2.7% on DK, 2.4% on FD) – Justin Jefferson is still the WR2 on his team as Thielen commands a large target share, but he still is getting 5.7 targets per game with an insanely high YPT of 14.1 (5th highest of WRs), and is first among WRs in yards per route run with a more than impressive 3.09. Detroit has given up an average of more than 80 yards per game to WR2s this season and Jefferson is the exact tournament leverage option who has insane upside and may be sub 7% owned on both sites. I really thought Corey Davis sucked but maybe he doesn’t this season? He’s getting 7.6 targets per game. Although he has a tougher matchup this week with Kyler Fuller, (who’s having a good season) I like the bet on volume play here as AJ Brown feels overpriced. In terms of routes run on % of snaps, Corey Davis actually edges out Brown in that category. Man I love Cole Beasley as a player and it doesn’t hurt that he has some sick ass flow on his head. Diggs is the clear run back/stack option #1 for Josh Allen. Instead of going with John Brown, who continues to be so plagued by injuries, I prefer Beasley. He is second on the team with a 19% market share of targets and is running a route on 68% of his snaps. Seattle ranks dead last in fantasy points given up to the slot compared to the league average and I think most would be shocked to see Beasley ranks 16th among WRs on this slate in yards per route run (2.24). Everyone loves Herbert now, Keenan Allen is a freak, but what about Mike Williams? He’s averaging 5.1 targets per game, has 10 red zone targets so far, and ranks 9th among WRs in points per touch. I really like Williams’ matchup and price as he’s a mere $5100 on DK, $6200 on FD, and should be able to burn Nevin Lawson, who’s given up 1.22 yards per route covered, 2 TDs, and nearly 20% of his targets covered. If Diontae Johnson could just not get hurt literally one time, he has an elite matchup against Trevon Diggs, who’s giving up 1.88 yards per route covered, has allowed a 20% target rate to opposing WRs, and has given up a massive 32 receptions and 5 TDs on the season. Diontae Johnson has 7 targets per game, 8 red zone targets, and has multiple TD upside if he can stay in the game and Dallas isn’t being blown out by 40 points. Never a name that sounds too sexy, but Randall Cobb has averaged 6.3 targets per game over his last 4 and gets to go against Tre Herndon and the Jags’ piss poor slot coverage. At only $4500 on DK and $5400 on FD, I think Cobb is actually very playable in both cash game and tournament formats. He won’t be high owned and offers a high floor with some decent TD upside in a great and high paced matchup.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Darren Waller/Hunter Henry/Noah Fant – Elite matchup for Waller this week, who had a similar matchup advantage, but busted as the pace was slow, the weather was bad, and the Raiders slowed the pace way down. Waller is seeing 26% of his team’s targets, the most in the league for tight ends, has 14 red zone targets, and ranks 3rd among all TEs in targets per route (0.26). Over their last 4 games, the Chargers have given up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to TEs (16.8), and with one of the higher Vegas point totals on the game (53 as of now), I expect a lot of scoring and a heavy target game for Waller. Hunter Henry has seemingly been a ghost in this offense the last few weeks, but is now dirt cheap (4000 on DK, pricier on FD at 5600), but still has the 7th most targets this season for TEs (43; 6.1 per game), to go along with 6 red zone targets. Virgil Green is on IR and I don’t see Donald Parham being a factor so I expect Henry to take advantage of this expected high scoring affair. Lastly, Fant seems like an awesome TE staple this week as the Falcons rank 3rd to last per DVOA against TEs, giving up an average of 67.3 yards per game, which translates to a league worst 19.1 fantasy points per game to the position. Albert Okwuegbunam is definitely a threat in the red zone (see below), but Fant is playing on 72.3% of the snaps compared to Albert’s 34.5%, and Fant is averaging 7 targets per game to go along with 8 red zone targets. I still think Fant is Lock’s favorite target and they should be able to shred the Falcons awful secondary.
Favorite Leverage Options: Albert Okwuegbunam (2.0% on DK, 0.6% on FD)/Eric Ebron (2.9% on DK, 2.8% on FD)/Jonnu Smith (3.8% on DK, 2.9% on FD)/Mark Andrews (5.5% on DK, 5.0% on FD) – Probably seems counterintuitive to write up 2 TEs not only from the same game, but the same team. I think Albert O is a viable tournament play despite my like for Fant. Albert plays a low volume of snaps, but has seen 4.7 targets per game, 6 red zone targets, and ranks 1st among TEs in both points per snap, and targets per route run. It never feels good to trust Ebron since he doesn’t have mega upside compared to the likes of Kelce/Waller, but he’s seen 5.3 targets per game, 10 red zone targets, and Dallas ranks 2nd to last in DVOA against TEs this season. Jonnu Smith kind of blew up last week, but now is sub 4k on DraftKings ($5700 for some reason on FD), and he’s still seeing just under 5 targets per game, has 8 red zone targets, and ranks 4th among TEs in points per touch and 5th in targets per route run. Despite some weak games, the Titans are still throwing to the TE position at one of the higher rates in the league (30.4% of the team’s targets), and Jonnu always carries multiple TD upside. Lastly, Mark Andrews has not been dominant, and this matchup isn’t tremendous as the Colts haven’t given up a TD to a TE all season but $4800 for Andrews and sub 10%? Hard to pass up. Andrews is still Lamar’s favorite target, getting 5.6 targets per game (21.1% of the team’s targets) and he has 15 red zone targets on the season, the most of any TE on the slate. Matchup be damned, Andrews is Top 10 in points per snap, points per touch, and targets per route, and is running a route on over 61% of his snaps.
Final Thoughts
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being SEA/BUF, LAC/LV, DET/MIN, and HOU/JAX, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns. Try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
