NFL Week 8 Ownership and Leverage Report
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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants. However, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Slate Overview
It sounds obvious but it’s so important to look back at both the season as a whole and your last few weeks to see where there were process errors, smart pivots, and just what mistakes could have been avoided in terms of roster construction. Hindsight is always 20/20 but a few leverage options I had last week were probably much too risky and I got trucked because of them, with names like James White/JD McKissic, Keelan Cole, MVS, and Dalton Schultz. James White/JD McKissic are fine if you’re doing MME and while I didn’t mind what the stats said, it probably wasn’t worth it to deploy them in 3 max entries as their floors are so low. Perhaps my biggest miss of the week was falling for the Keelan Cole trap when we already knew how involved James Robinson is in that offense, no matter what the game script is, and he showed that with over 100 yards rushing, a lot of targets, and what should ultimately be the run back in most weeks that you’re playing the Jags. Dalton Schultz I thought was a fine volume play but I definitely should have accounted for how much worse Dalton was than Dak and that there was a real possibility that the Cowboys would get smoked… which they did. Week 7 wasn’t all bad as the QBs I played all did quite well in their own right with Burrow throwing for over 400 yards and 4 TDs and Justin Herbert continuing to look like a rookie stud with another 300+ yard passing game to go along with some serious rushing upside (remember that). Oh and lastly, don’t fade Kyler in cash games when he’s playing the Seahawks… that was painful.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Joe Burrow/Ryan Tannehill/Russell Wilson – Joe Burrow has now thrown for over 300 yards in 5 of 7 games this season, he has zero help from his defense, so I don’t see why he doesn’t continue dropping back 40-50+ times per game and using what are more than capable WRs as the season progresses. This week he gets the Titans who have a sneaky terrible defense and have allowed 53 points per game to WRs over their last 4 to go along with what should be a fast paced game with a lot of plays (Bengals 9th in pace, Titans 3rd in pace). Burrow is an elite GPP and cash game play. On the other side of the ball, Tannehill continues to roll and now gets to face the Bengals pass defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and has given up 300+ yards passing to 3 of the last 4 QBs they faced in Baker, Philip Rivers, and Gardner Minshew. Tannehill is so efficient and while a ton of ownership will go to Derrick Henry (and rightfully so), Tannehill ranks 5th among QBs in points per drop back, has sneaky rushing upside (17.6% of the team’s RZ rushing), and has thrown 15 TDs to only 2 picks in his first 6 games. Lastly, Russ is in play every week no matter the matchup with how tremendous he is as a QB and how bad his defense is at stopping anybody. If looking at DK/FD points allowed, the SF is obviously very strong but when we look into DVOA, they’re middle of the road against WR2s/WR3s and have not faced a QB the caliber of Russ yet…
Favorite Leverage Options: Lamar Jackson (5.0% on DK, 6.5% on FD)/Aaron Rodgers (6.4% on DK, 7.5% on FD)/Justin Herbert (4.0% on DK, 2.9% on FD)– I haven’t played Lamar once this year and I think it’s due to the Ravens very slow pace of play (27th in the league) and Lamar having his TD efficiency drop, but I think this is the perfect spot after a bye and a very difficult matchup against the Steelers. Lamar has only dropped an average of 32 times per game but if we look at his opponents, he hasn’t really needed to throw the ball. He has 10 TDs to 2 picks and perhaps his biggest asset this week will be his ability to scramble as the Steelers generate a ton of pressure and that’s what Lamar does best: escape the pocket and run for huge plays. Lamar is still averaging 22 DK points per game, ranks 2nd in points per drop back, and is now quite cheap against, yes, a great defense but one that has given up a ton of big plays. Maybe his ownership gets higher than I think, but Rodgers is facing a horrible Vikings defense that has given up the 3rd most DK/FD points, in total, both in the full season and last 4 weeks, with a rank of 15th per DVOA against the pass. Rodgers is tied for 5th with Tannehill in points per drop back and has thrown the 3rd most TDs in the league and may go under owned despite the expected chalk of Williams/Adams. Finally, Herbert has been on a tear and it still seems like no one wants to play him. In his 5 games this year, Herbert ranks 3rd in points per drop back, is dropping back over 40 times per game, and is averaging just shy of 28 DK points per game. Despite all their injuries, the Broncos still have a respectable secondary; however, they don’t generate a ton of pressure, sitting at 21st in Brandon Thorn’s D-Line ranks, and Herbert has shown the last few weeks his ability to connect on deep passes when he has time in the pocket… love his upside here at what should be less than 5% owned on both sites this week.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Kareem Hunt/Derrick Henry/Jamaal Williams – This could be the last week that Hunt isn’t competing for touches with Nick Chubb and the spot really couldn’t be better… Vegas has been shredded by RBs this season, giving up 33 DK points and 29 FD points, per game to the position and have a bottom 10 defensive line versus the browns 6th ranked offensive line (per Brandon Thorn). This could be more of a narrative if anything, but the Browns already try to limit Baker’s throws in general and with a potential heavy wind game, Hunt could see 30+ touches in this game. I never play Derrick Henry but this spot seems primed for him (so he’ll probably bust). He leads the league in rushing attempts, averaging 24 per game, and despite his lack of targets/receiving that hurts his overall upside, his big play potential is so evident and is the go to guy in the red zone, with 31 High Value Touches (“HVT”) on the season. The Titans O line isn’t anything special, but I don’t expect the Bengals to be very successful in stopping him with their 25th ranked defensive line and Henry could easily carry the ball 35 times in this game if the Titans get a lead. Without Aaron Jones last week, and it’s trending for Jones to miss again, Williams saw 19 carries for 77 yards and had 5 targets which resulted in 4 catches for 37 yards. He definitely put to rest the idea of Dillon taking away significant work as he played on 89% of the snaps and now gets the Vikings who have given up 25 points on average to RBs through their first 6 games… elite usage play again.
Favorite Leverage Options: Darrell Henderson (3.9% on DK, 5.3% on FD)/Myles Gaskin (9.5% on DK, 12.5% on FD)/Jonathan Taylor (10.9% on DK, 15.3% on FD) – Sean McVay is so annoying and who knows if he randomly just decides Akers is getting 70% of the snaps this week, but Henderson sure looks like the lead guy and gets to face the Dolphins 32nd ranked rush defense, per DVOA, and the 27th ranked team against RB receiving. Miami quietly has strong outside corners, but they get roasted in the slot and on the ground, as they’ve given up 27.2 DK points and 24.4 FD points per game to RBs this season. I like Henderson as a strong pivot off of what should be Gio Bernard/Jamaal Williams chalk where if he gets the run, he could easily see 15 rush attempts, 4-5 targets as it’s worth noting that he has 26 HVTs this season compared to 20 for Malcolm Brown. I think I’m legally obligated to discuss Gaskin every week he’s on the main slate. Gaskin is the only MIA RB to have stable snap counts this season, as he’s played between 63-70% in all 6 games and while the Rams have a force in Aaron Donald and decently solid defensive line, they are slightly below average in both Rush DVOA and receiving RB DVOA, giving up around 48 yards receiving to RBs per game. As the Dolphins transition to their rookie QB Tua, we could see a lot of check downs to Gaskin, who was already averaging 5 targets per game with Fitz, and we know how solid of a runner Gaskin is, ranking Top 10 in avoided missed tackles forced per rush. I really hope the bye helped the Colts to realize that Jonathan Taylor should be the alpha back as he gets to face the Lions, who have given up the 5th most points per game to RBs through their first 6 games. Taylor has seen about 20% more of the IND RB snaps (compared to Hines) over his last 2 games and while Hines will still get a lot of receiving work, Taylor showed he is a more than capable pass catcher and if the game script plays out how I think it will, he could be in line for 3-5 targets and 15-20 rushes.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Davante Adams/Keenan Allen/Tyler Lockett/A.J. Brown – Davante Adams continues to absolutely dominate when he plays and now gets to go against Harrison Hand who has given up an 80% catch rate to go against Adams’ 11.5 targets per game and 3.33 yards per route run… LOL good luck buddy. Keenan Allen may be the most mispriced player on the slate as he’s only the 15th most expensive WR on DraftKings where he’s seeing 10 targets per game over the full season, 11.3 in his last 4 games, and is the clear first look for Herbert in almost any drop back. Allen has the highest % of his team’s targets of any WR on the slate, has 12 RZ targets, and is an elite play in all formats. While he may get very chalky due to an explosive 56 DK Point game this past Sunday, Lockett still feels underpriced and has a far superior matchup to his counterpart, DK Metcalf, this week. Lockett sees 28% of Russ’ targets (9.7 per game), has 13 RZ targets, ranks 2nd in points per snap, 15th in yards per route run, and gets an awesome slot matchup against Jamar Taylor, who’s giving up 1.79 yards per route covered (6th most of any CB). I think A.J. Brown does end up pretty popular with Tannehill as expected chalk and I think he’s underpriced and an awesome play in GPPs. Brown has only played in 4 games this year, but is averaging 7.3 targets in those games, has 7 total RZ targets, and ranks 5th in points per snap and 7th in yards per route run. Brown has the best WR/CB matchup on his team and should be peppered with targets if Cincy can keep this game close.
Favorite Leverage Options: Justin Jefferson (4.5% on DK, 4.7% on FD)/Cooper Kupp (7.2% on DK, 7.4% on FD)/Marquise Brown (4.8% on DK, 7.6% on FD)/Jarvis Landry (8.3% on DK, 10.8% on FD)/Diontae Johnson (3.3% on DK, 4.0% on FD)/A.J. Green (7.7% on DK, 6.3% on FD) – An easy pivot for me this week is Jefferson instead of Thielen. The Packers defense is bad, but Jaire Alexander is one of the best CBs in the league and despite him getting beat by Thielen Week 1, Alexander is a top 3 CB in the league and should be able to shadow him pretty well. Meanwhile, Jefferson gets a much more favorable matchup against Josh Jackson, who I think can get burned by Jefferson’s speed and his high YPT (14.92), which ranks 6th among all WRs on the slate. Jefferson has averaged 6 targets per game and ranks 4th in points per snaps, 6th in points per touch, and 2nd in yards per route run (3.2). I mentioned earlier that the Dolphins have a pretty solid set of outside CBs but they get torched in the slot as Nik Needham is giving up nearly an 80% catch rate and 1.56 yards per route covered against Kupp’s 76% catch rate, 1.94 yards per route run, and Goff’s favorite target, as Kupp is seeing 23% of the total targets for the team. After a slow start, Kupp has been the PPR machine of last year yet again and should see heavy volume as Woods sees a difficult matchup with Xavien Howard and Josh Reynolds up against Byron Jones, both who have a 50% or lower catch rate this season. Marquise Brown is so close to a breakout game, and while I don’t think that’s a secret at this point, his projected ownership sure doesn’t show that. The Steelers have a great defense, a great defensive line, but per Warren Sharp (Sharp Football Stats), the Steelers have given up the 7th most explosive pass plays and in recent memory let AJ Brown score twice against them, Will Fuller went for over 100 and a score in Week 3, as Joe Haden has certainly taken a step back this year. Brown still has the volume, averaging 7.5 targets over his last 4 games, and ranks 4th among WRs on this slate in weighted opportunity, 7th in the league in air yards, and a YPT of nearly 10. It’s also worth noting that while PIT ranks 8th in DVOA against the pass, 1st against the Rush, 1st against TEs, they rank 30th against WR1s. Odell is out for the season and despite Higgins sure to take some targets and the Browns to continue to lean on the run, as long as he’s remotely healthy, Landry should be in line for a major increase in targets. He has one of the better matchups on the slate in the slot against Lamarcus Joyner, who’s given up a massive 74% catch rate, and especially on a full PPR site like DraftKings, I am optimistic that Landry builds on his 6.5 targets over his last 4 games, on average, and add to his already 9 red zone targets through the Browns’ first 7 games. People keep not playing Diontae Johnson and I still think he’s the WR1 on his team. He’s seeing 7.8 targets per game, caught 2 TDs last week, and is seeing 27% of his team’s air yards. His matchup isn’t a slam dunk; however, JuJu has a brutal matchup with Marlon Humphrey while Claypool should be lined up with Marcus Peters, so in a game where I expect it to be close, Ben needs to dish the ball to someone and the Ravens have a much stronger run defense compared to the pass. Maybe he ends up chalky, and maybe he actually is dust, but man, A.J. Green is seriously due… per Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com, who analyzes expected fantasy points each week, Green is the #1 candidate, by far, for positive regression, averaging 6.4 less points per game than his expectation. Green has seen 8.1 targets per game over the full season, 7.5 over his last 4, has 13 red zone targets, and still no TDs. Malcolm Butler, who he should be matched up with, is extremely overrated, giving up 1.56 yards per route covered, and at sub 5k on DraftKings and sub 6k on FanDuel, Green seems like one of the better values on the slate.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: George Kittle/Darren Waller/Jonnu Smith – Kittle is playable every single week, as he averages 9 targets a game, ranks 3rd among TEs in targets per route run (0.28), and is facing Seattle, who we know can’t stop anyone. I wonder if his ownership is kept down to Seattle’s DVP against TE’s (only 7.9 DK Points and 6.3 FD Points to TE per game), but we have to remember that Kittle is basically an elite WR with the title of “TE,” so that doesn’t worry me whatsoever. Another TE that’s basically a WR is Darren Waller, who should continue to build on his massive target share and exploit Malcolm Smith’s 80% catch rate. Waller gets nearly 26% of his team’s targets, ranks 5th in targets per route run (0.26), 4th among TEs in total RZ targets, and is right behind Kittle in weighted opportunity through each of their first 6 games. He’s an elite play and preferred run back if stacking the Browns side of the ball. Jonnu Smith is WAY too cheap for someone who averages over 5 targets per game, ranks 4th in targets per route run among TEs, and is facing the Bengals, who have given up on average 22.8 DK points to TEs over their last 4 games (including 3 total TDs last week to the Browns). Firkser still has some involvement, but Jonnu has played on an average of 73.3% of the snaps compared to Firkser’s 34.6% through their first 6 games.
Favorite Leverage Options: Mike Gesicki (9.5% on DK, 3.5% on FD)/Noah Fant (2.9% on DK, 5.5% on FD)/Jimmy Graham (1.4% on DK, 1.8% on FD) – Gesicki got leeched HARD in Week 6, as the Dolphins scored 3 TE TDs… none of which were to him. Still, Gesicki is running a route on 73% of his snaps, the highest rate of TEs on the slate, and despite less volume than the likes of Waller/Kittle/Kelce, he’s extremely efficient, ranking 11th in points per snap, 113th in points per touch, and Top 20 in targets per route run against all other TEs. In 5 games this season, Noah Fant has established himself as Lock’s favorite target, averaging 6.6 targets per game and faces the Chargers at home, who only rank 26th in DVOA against TEs this season. Lock seems to love that position in general, as he through a bunch to Albert Okwuegbunam in Week 7, but Fant is still playing 71.1% of the snaps compared to Albert’s 39% and should see more consistent volume on a week to week basis. I think both Fant and Gesicki should benefit from their WR counterparts having difficult matchups against the likes of Darious Williams and Troy Hill (Rams CBs) and Casey Heyward and Desmond King (Chargers CBs), which could certainly funnel more targets their way. Lastly, we have Jimmy Graham who is on a god-awful offense with some questionable play calling but a very favorable matchup. The Saints have been burned by TEs in their first 6 games, giving up 19.5 DK and 15.8 FD points per game on average and with Allen Robinson possibly out this game, he could easily see 7+ targets (already averaging 5.6 targets per game). Graham quietly has the 4th most total targets of all TEs, has 13 red zone targets (2nd most for TEs), and while Nick Foles sucks and the Bears run multiple TE sets a lot, Graham is 2nd behind Gesicki in % of snaps where he ran a route, with 68.4% while Demetrius Harris and Cole Kmet have only run a route on 33-34% with each not seeing more than 1-2 targets per game.
Final Thoughts
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being SEA/SF, TEN/CIN, GB/MIN, and CLE/LV but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
