NFL Week 6 Ownership and Leverage Report
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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 5 Slate Overview
Week 5 saw what seems like most of the chalk hit with many flocking to Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers offense seeing a ton of ownership in cash games and GPPs as Teddy went over 300 yards, Davis continued to rack up catches, and both Moore/Anderson had big games in their own right. In terms of this article, we had a few great calls as well as some plays that more or less busted, as Kyler and Big Ben had solid games at very low ownership, Sanders paid off due to a huge 70+ yard run, Edmonds saw heavy involvement against the Jets, and Jamison Crowder continued to be a target monster. Of the bad, Ryan continued to burn me, James Robinson had a down game, DJ Chark got hurt which killed his value, and Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper, and Tyler Higbee all had complete busts, with Diontae getting hurt after only 6 snaps in the game. I think the process was pretty solid in Week 5 as I thought Crowder made a ton of sense with a comeback in Kyler stacks, Darren Fells was a tremendous value at nearly no ownership and he broke free for a big TD with Akins out, and after starting out slow, DeAndre Hopkins went for over 100 yards and a score. Matt Ryan continued to be hindered by Dan Quinn, who now is finally gone, while Amari lost Dak, and Kittle/Higbee unfortunately got game scripted out, which is something I should have done better in adjusting for when looking at their respective matchups. Onto Week 6 which HOPEFULLY sees all eleven games play out and some interesting pivots as there is a ton of ownership locked in on RBs with great matchups and a few high implied Vegas total games that may go overlooked.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Matthew Stafford/Ryan Fitzpatrick/Deshaun Watson – After a bye week that hopefully saw Golladay get even healthier and maybe Matt Patricia having an epiphany that has him not running the ball all day with dusty Adrian Peterson, the Lions get to pass the Jaguars who rank dead last against the pass per DVOA and have allowed the 8th most DK points to QBs through 5 weeks (24.2). The Jags already had a bad defense to begin with, but with a plethora of injuries to go along with it, I think Stafford is viable in all formats as the Lions defense is certainly not stopping anyone and this game is my prediction to most likely exceed the Vegas total. Finally, the Jags and Lions both rank Top 10 in pace of play which should see a solid back and forth and Stafford should have plenty of time to throw as the Jags rank in the bottom 3rd in the league in both blitz rate and pressures per drop back (per Football Outsiders). I worry about Fitzpatrick a little bit, but not because he ranks poorly or doesn’t have an elite matchup, but more because he should be the highest or one of the highest owned QBs on the slate and chalk Fitz never sounds very appealing… nevertheless, the Jets rank 2nd to last in Pass DVOA, dead last against WR1s, and 27th out of 32 against WR2s. Fitz doesn’t have a great O-Line but he does have some upside when he runs and is averaging 39 drop backs per game with 3 300+ yard games in the first 5 games of the season to go along with 0.57 points per drop back, ranking 13th among QBs. His price is too cheap for the matchup and I get the chalk with how juicy his upside is here. Lastly, Deshaun looked much better last week with the departure of Bill O’Brien and while I think I actually prefer the Titans side of the ball, the Titans don’t generate much pressure at all and with how solid the their offense is, I think Deshaun should be throwing the ball all game to keep up and we know how high his ceiling is to go along with his rushing upside. All Watson’s receivers have solid WR/CB matchups, per PFF, as Fuller is too speedy for Malcom Butler, and Cobb/Cooks should be able to rack up catches in the slot and on the right side, respectively.
Favorite Leverage Options: Cam Newton (5.7% on DK, 6.4% on FD)/Tom Brady (4.5% on DK, 5.6% on FD)/Ryan Tannehill (6.4% on DK, 5.3% on FD)– Cam has only played in 3 games this season after getting COVID and having to sit out against the Chiefs, but before that he was having a very efficient season, ranking 2nd in QBs in points per drop back, an 81% adjusted completion percentage, and now faces a more than injured Broncos secondary at home. Most importantly, per Brandon Thorn, the Pats O-Line versus the depleted Broncos D-Line is his top mismatch of the week as outside of Bradley Chubb, the Broncos have no way to get pressure on the QB which should allow Cam to both run and pass with ease in what may be a slow paced, but high rushing game for Newton. Brady is definitely not the star he was for 20 years on the Patriots, but he’s still playing solid football and while everyone flocks to the Packers weapons in the highest implied total of the week, Brady should come in under owned. The Packers have a stud CB in Jaire Alexander, but overall, they only rank 25th out of 32 in Pass DVOA and rank 32nd against WR2s, 25th against TEs, and dead last against receiving RBs. Some of this hinders on Godwin being back in the lineup, but in a game where the Bucs should either be trying to stay competitive, or trailing, Brady should continue to drop back over 40 times per game. He has a volatile outcome range but has scored 22 or more points in 3 of his 5 games and he’s facing an average at best pass defense this week. Ryan Tannehill may get more owned than I think, but he has been a stud both last season and through his first 4 games this season, ranking 6th in points per drop back, and one of the most efficient QBs in the league despite only averaging 35-36 drop backs per game. Per Brandon Thorn, the Titans have a top 10 offensive line compared to Houston’s below average defensive line, who also rank 30th out of 32 in adjusted line yards, and I expect Tannehill to have plenty of time to burn a very poor Texans D.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Alexander Mattison/Myles Gaskin/Mike Davis – Mattison is probably going to be the highest owned player on the slate, with most likely 40+% ownership in cash on both sites and probably 25+% owned in GPPs but the matchup really couldn’t be better as he faces the Falcons, who have given up the most DK/FD points per game of any team in the league, including on average 29.5 DK points to RBs, 25 FD Points to RBs, and Mattison clearly established himself as the lead back after Cook went out last week. We know that all Zimmer wants to do is bleed the clock and run the ball and Mattison should be more than capable after he stepped in last week and ran for 112 yards on 20 attempts to go along with 3 catches for 24 yards. I’ve been a Gaskin truther all season and he should see his biggest ownership of the season at only 5400 on DK and 5700 on FD against a Jets team that has allowed the 6th most points on average to RBs so far this season. It would be nice if Jordan Howard would stop vulturing TDs because Gaskin is clearly their best back as he’s tied for 3rd in the league in avoided tackles and is averaging 5 targets a game to go along with THIRTY TWO High Value Touches, “HVT” (per Ben Gretch, formally of CBS; catches + rushes inside the 10 yard line), which is the 2nd highest on the slate for RBs, only behind Mike Davis. Speaking of Mike Davis, he sees a much tougher matchup this week than his one against the Falcons, but even at 7k on DK and only 7500 on FD, his floor and overall opportunity presents a value even at the heightened price tag. He is a near lock for me in all formats, as he’s averaging 6.4 targets per game, with 32 already on the season (most for RBs on this slate), is seeing 18.6% of his team’s targets to go along with 37 HVTs and 8 red zone targets.
Favorite Leverage Options: Aaron Jones (9.5% on DK, 14.1% on FD)/Ronald Jones (7.3% on DK, 5.1% on FD)/Antonio Gibson (6.2% on DK, 3.7% on FD)/Kareem Hunt (8.7% on DK, 10.6% on FD) – Jones ceiling may be affected by the return of Davante Adams and maybe he comes in higher owned than my current projections, but I think he has the chance to go overlooked as people want to play Rodgers and the passing attack, but Jones has still seen 5.5 targets per game, including 10 red zone targets, and 25 HVTs through 4 games. The Bucs certainly have been tough on RBs so far this season; however, the Packers have a tremendous O-Line and maybe even more importantly, the Bucs lost Vita Vea for the season last week, who was a massive force on their defensive line. I will bet on volume on this matchup and if the Packers get a lead, Jones could easily see 25-30 touches. I won’t play them in the same lineup, but on the other side of the ball, Ronald Jones has looked great this season. The Packers possess the 25th ranked defense against the rush, per DVOA, and have given up the 2nd most points on average to RBs on the season, with 36.3. Things could change if Fournette is healthy going into the game, but Jones has seen 4.4 targets per game, 15 rushes per game, and 5 red zone targets to go along with 15% of the red zone rush attempts. If the Bucs can get a lead or stay competitive, Jones could see a heavy workload, especially if Fournette isn’t 100% and McCoy/Vaughn sit this game (which is currently trending towards being the case). I will continue to play Gibson every week and hope that he further solidifies himself as the clear #1 option on the team and maybe this week he can finally showcase his ceiling. Over his last 4 games, he’s average 15 touches per game with 73 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs in that time frame and now gets by far his best matchup of the season against the Giants, who have allowed on average 173 total yards to RBs through the first 5 weeks. I actually think the Football Team wins this game and if they aren’t trailing for once, I think Gibson can easily top 25 touches with upside for a multiple TD game. Lastly, Hunt is certainly risky as the Browns have a top 5 O-Line but unfortunately for them, the Steelers have the top ranked D-Line in the league. This is more of a bet on volume as Chubb remains out and I think Baker is more hurt than he’s letting on. In a game I expect the Browns to be trailing, I think Hunt could see a lot of check downs and he always has the potential for a few big gains or a long TD. Hunt is averaging 17.6 points per game and only one of those has been without Chubb in the backfield and it was against a strong Colts defense, so I think Hunt is a reasonable GPP pivot who should be extremely low owned at a high price tag in a very difficult matchup.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: A.J. Brown/Adam Thielen/Calvin Ridley/Kenny Golladay – A.J. Brown is probably the biggest misprice of the week, sitting at only 5600 on DK and 6500 on FD and despite only playing 2 games thus far, seems near fully healthy and has seen 16 targets over that time. I don’t care that he’s against Bradley Roby who has had a solid season, he’s clearly Tannehill’s favorite target right now. Brown should be a lock in cash games and very viable in GPPs as chalk that is safe after playing 77% of the snaps in Week 5 and a focal point of the offense. I’ll group Thielen and Ridley together as I think they’re great plays in the same lineup as Ridley ranks #1 in Air Yards this season and Thielen #2. Thielen has seen 33% of his team’s targets, is 1st overall in WOPR (weighted opportunity) among WRs on this slate and is playing 92% of the team’s snaps. Ridley is averaging 9 targets per game to along with 15 red zone targets and 23% of his team’s targets. I said it on the pod this week, but I think the spot for Ridley is way better if Julio were to play, even if limited, but regardless he is an elite play in all formats with a slight lean to Thielen in cash games. Golladay has the best matchup of the week, per PFF, as he should wreck Chris Claybrooks, as the Lions go against the aforementioned last placed Pass DVOA Jaguars. Golladay has scored in each of his 2 games and I could easily see a 100+ yard game after the Jags have been smoked by both Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd this season.
Favorite Leverage Options: Tee Higgins (3.0% on DK, 2.1% on FD)/N’Keal Harry (3.2% on DK, 2.5% on FD)/Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3.2% on DK, 2.6% on FD)/Jarvis Landry (3.6% on DK, 2.4% on FD) – One of my favorite plays on the entire slate in terms of leverage is Tee Higgins. With A.J. Green clearly dust and also injured, I think Higgins has emerged as the WR2 in Cincy. This matchup is difficult, but I expect Burrow to continue to be throwing all game and Higgins last 4 games have been fantastic, with 10+ fantasy points in all and target counts of 6/9/7/8. Higgins is playing about 61% of the Bengals snaps, running a route on 69.4% of those snaps, and has a yards per route run of 1.35, compared to dusty Green’s 0.72, making him an awesome pivot WR at what should be almost no ownership. N’Keal Harry is risky as the Pats may just run the whole game and bleed clock, but he now has Cam back under center and Harry has average 6.8 targets per game, has 10 red zone targets, and facing a Broncos team that has given up the 5th most fantasy points on average to WRs. You wouldn’t expect it, but Harry has played a higher percent of the snaps than Edelman (77% to 71%) and has run a solid number of routes on those snaps, at 72.2%. I do like Aaron Jones and obviously Davante Adams, but with Lazard still out, MVS is the clear #2 option in Green Bay and should see a much easier matchup compared to Adams. With Adams sidelined, MVS has played over 70% of the Packers snaps and run a route on a whopping 81.4% of those snaps. Adams’ return certainly hurts his target share, but Tampa ranks 31st against WR2s compared to 2nd against WR1s, and Scantling has averaged 6.3 targets per game with 10 red zone targets and should hardly see any ownership in this highly targeted game for DFS. Lastly, Landry, similar to Hunt, is a bet on volume as the Steelers D is very strong, but Landry has seen an uptick in targets the last weeks, and is averaging 5.4 on the season, good for 19% of the team’s targets and sits very cheap on both sites. Odell is matchup proof but should see a more difficult CB compared to Landry and especially on full PPR sites, such as DraftKings, Landry could see a lot of volume as he’s running the same % of routes as Odell on the season (55%) to go along with seeing the field on 72% of the Browns snaps in total.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Jonnu Smith/Mark Andrews/Mike Gesicki – With Kelce/Kittle off the main slate, I don’t think there will be a TON of concentrated ownership on TEs this week, but I expect Jonnu Smith to be one of the highest, and for good reason. Smith is playing 83% of the Titans snaps, seeing 6.5 targets per game, and ranks 2nd among all tight ends in Targets per route run (0.30). Further, he has the 2nd highest % of team targets behind Mark Andrews (Smith with 21%, Andrews with 21.7%), and remains a red zone threat with 7 red zone targets on the season. I was hoping Andrews could go overlooked, but he is Lamar’s favorite target, seeing a 21% target share and a team-leading 37% red zone target share. The Eagles have been smoked by TEs all season, giving up 19.4 DK points and 15.4 FD points on average to the position. Gesicki may end up lower owned than I think, but despite a few floor games, he is still averaging 5.4 targets per game, has 8 red zone targets on the season, and is running a route on 74.3% of his snaps to go along with a 1.98 yards per route run. He has a high price tag as the 2nd most expensive TE on DK but is only the 8th most expensive on FD and has multiple TD upside in a great matchup.
Favorite Leverage Options: Evan Engram (5.0% on DK, 7.1% on FD)/Hayden Hurst (2.5% on DK, 2.9% on FD)/Eric Ebron (6.3% on DK, 4.3% on FD) – Engram more or less busted as chalk last week in what should have been a very positive matchup, but now he sits at under 5k on DK and under 6K on FD, but now gets an equally solid matchup against WAS who has given up the 5th most fantasy points to TEs in the first 5 weeks. Engram has the 2nd most targets of TEs on the slate with 31 in 5 games, or 6.2 per game, and while he only has 5 red zone targets, he’s still being targeted about 18% of the time for the Giants and always has the potentially for 8+ catches and 1 or 2 TDs if the Giants can stay competitive. Many, including myself, had high hopes for Hurst this season on the pass happy (or used to be pass happy) Falcons, but he hasn’t performed very well through 5 games. However, he still has 5.2 targets per game, 6 red zone targets, and is running the highest % of routes per snaps played of all TEs on the slate, with 83%. The Vikings defense is not good against WRs or TEs, ranking 23rd in DVOA against TEs and I think Hurst could finally see a breakout game here at sub 5% ownership. Lastly, the Browns D is much improved this season, but they continue to give up points to the TE position and Ebron feels cheap in an underrated high Vegas implied total game. He has seen 5 targets per game through their 4 games, 4 red zone targets, and is playing 73% of the Steelers snaps compared to Vance McDonald’s 55%. With one of the higher implied team totals on the slate and the Browns 65% red zone TD average allowed this season, I think Ebron can certainly smash value as a cheaper TE on the slate.
Final Thoughts
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being ATL/MIN, GB/TB, DET/JAX, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
