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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 12 Slate Review
Week 12 was one of the wilder weeks leading up to Sunday that I think many have ever seen and definitely one that I think it was imperative to basically wait to make lineups late Saturday/early Sunday with all the COVID and late news. The article had its normally hits and misses with me really not getting most QBs right but I was lucky enough to end up on Mahomes/Tyreek and in my main GPP lineup and cash and while I will never say I predicted a blow up game of 60 points for TyScum, I did like the spot he was in with the Bucs leaking oil on defense over their last few weeks. Josh Allen shockingly didn’t do much, Derek Carr had one of the worst games I’ve ever seen, and Cam… well he continued to suck (but we’re going back this week). Darren Waller, mostly due to Carr’s terrible play, more or less flopped with 4-5 fantasy points and although Crowder had a ton of targets, he was outshined by Mims and Perriman as Darnold continued to look horrible. For the good, Chubb had a terrific game against a horrible Jags defense, James Robinson continued to be a monster in both the rushing and receiving game, and we ran good with 2 chalk Justin Jefferson TDs. The tight end pivots were decent as Engram had a huge receiving game, scoring over 20 fantasy points, and Gronk did is job as well, quietly getting 8 targets and converting them for 7 catches for 106 yards but no TDs. I had a good week due to Mahomes/Tyreek and instead of running it back with a lower priced/much higher owned AB, using Godwin who went for 97 yards on 9 targets go along with my fade of an extremely chalk Dalvin Cook and opting for Nyheim Hines and Wayne Gallman. Enough about last week, let’s get to the Week 13 ownership and leverage and let me know what you think of the slightly altered format as I tried to clean it up a little bit to make it more readable!
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Russell Wilson → I actually think QB is pretty spread out this week so these “chalk” picks should end up maybe 10-12% in tournaments, or less, but nonetheless, I will continue to play Russ every week no matter the price or matchup. The Giants are a better defense than most, including myself, give them credit for as they’ve only allowed 17.5 DK points on average to QBs this season, but Russ is not a normal QB. While it’s concerning that Carroll seems to have gone back to a more run heavy team over the last few games, Russ is still dropping back over 42 times per game and is incredibly efficient, reducing the need for him to throw 50+ times a game to hit massive value. Although James Bradberry has had a great season, DK Metcalf is matchup proof and Tyler Lockett should be able to rebound from a couple down games and torch Darnay Holmes in the slot. Even though there is blowout concern with Colt McCoy probably starting for the Giants, the Seahawks still have the 3rd highest implied TT on the slate, and I expect Russ to smash whether or not the game is close.
Aaron Rodgers → I originally did not think Rodgers would be too high owned, but he is gaining steam, rightfully so, with a great matchup at home versus the besieged Eagles. Similar to Russ, Rodgers doesn’t need 50 drop backs to hit his ceiling, as he’s sporting a 33/4 TD/INT ratio this season and ranks 2nd on the slate behind only Kyler in points per drop back (excluding Taysom, who’s only started 2 games). The Eagles have a decent defensive line, but rank 20th per DVOA against the pass and before leaving out the elephant in the room, Darius Slay will be no match for Rodger’s best friend Davante Adams. It’s always concerning that the Packers play at the slowest pace in the league, but with the Eagles being the 3rd fastest and incredibly turnover prone, Rodgers should have a ton of opportunity with possible short fields to torch this tumbling team.
Favorite Leverage Options
Taysom Hill → This is maybe the most 2020 play ever by me since I can’t stand this guy as a former leech who has now rendered Alvin Kamara to a sub 50% snap count in the last 2 games… nevertheless, I don’t think he’ll be owned by hardly anyone and the Saints should definitely be much more pass heavy this week as they face off against an actual NFL QB. The Falcons are a complete pass funnel as they have a shockingly strong run defense, ranking 6th in rush DVOA while having no way to stop any sort of pass (unless you are Derek Carr). Last week the Saints were always going to be run heavy since there was just about zero reason to throw, but in Week 11, versus the Falcons funny enough, Taysom had 30 drop backs, completing 91% of his passes for 233 yards and while he didn’t throw a TD, he did have 2 rushing TDs. Over his last 2 games he’s averaging 0.86 points per drop back, has 35% of the red zone rush attempts and 4 rushing TDs… the upside is definitely there at what should be very low ownership.
DK OWN% – 5.4%
FD OWN% – 4.9%
Cam Newton → Has Cam looked really bad the last few weeks? Yes. Does he average under 30 drop backs per game? Also, yes. Does he have an almost comical 4/9 TD/INT ratio. Oh yes. However, in terms of efficiency and floor, it’s better than most think as he ranks 7th in points per drop back among QBs, he takes about 30% of the Patriots red zone rush attempts, and is facing a very poor Chargers defense that has given up an average of 21.2 fantasy points to QBs on the season. The Patriots defense is horrible this year, Herbert has been good, and if the Pats want to stay competitive, Cam will be forced to rush/throw as the Chargers seem to find themselves in shootout after shootout and continue to get gashed on the ground, ranking 2nd to last in Rush DVOA. In the Chargers last 8 games, the total points scored has AVERAGED 59 points with last week the first time since Week 3 that their game total was under 50.
DK OWN% – 5.4%
FD OWN% – 5.4%
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
James Robinson → What an amazing story for James Robinson this year and I hope for his sake, before he gets too old, he gets a new team, a fat contract, a Jags rebuild, or all the above. Robinson is a top 3 alpha RB in the NFL, getting 80% of the team’s rush attempts (that’s nearly 10% more than the next highest Derrick Henry), he averages over 4 “High Value Touches” (HVT or HVTs) per game, and is averaging 3-6 targets per game on top of his 18-22 rush attempts. Averaging 4.6 YPC, 11% of his team’s targets, and a fully game script independent RB, I will continue to play him even as chalk as he has such a high floor and a massive ceiling, despite being nearly 11 point dogs to the Vikings.
Austin Ekeler → LOL, we can only trust Rappaport/Schefter/beat reporters so much because we were told last week Ekeler wouldn’t have “limited” snaps, as he proceeded to get 16 targets, going for 11 catches and 85 yards with a TD, on top of 14 rushes for 44 yards. Anthony Lynn is such a bad coach that Ekeler will never get to be a true bell cow like Robinson/Cook/Henry, but with his average of 6.2 targets per game in his 5 games this season, 6.2 HVTs per game, and going against a Patriots team that ranks 28th in rush DVOA and 25th against RB receiving, the matchup is prime for him and I’m all in.
Favorite Leverage Options
Aaron Jones → Because he’s almost always overpriced and the Packers have Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams, I feel like Jones is never really owned in tournaments very much. Despite the lethal QB/WR combo, Jones is still averaging 4.8 targets per game, is tied with Hunt/Hines/Kamara for most red zone targets with 10 and is incredibly efficient despite the omnipresent Jamaal Williams. Jones is averaging 5.2 HVTs per game and ranks 6th among all RBs on the slate in points per snap and 13th in points per touch.
DK OWN% – 8.1%
FD OWN% – 6.2%
Chris Carson → Similar to Jones, Carson probably isn’t played enough due to how incredible Russ has been this season and the insane points put up by Russ and Lockett/Metcalf. Carson was eased back in last week, but the game was also mostly in hand and he still is the clear RB1 in this offense. Carson has played in 7 games this year and in those has shown a receiving floor of 2-5 targets (averaging 3.9 per game), including 5 red zone targets, and is efficient with his touches, ranking 3rd in points per snap and 7th in points per touch among RBs on this slate. What’s most encouraging about Carson this week is he’ll be under owned, his team is 10 point favorites to a team giving up 25 fantasy points on average to RBs, and nearly 1/3 of his touches are HVT (32 total) for the season.
DK OWN% – 9.5%
FD OWN% – 7.1%
Nyheim Hines → I really hope Jonathan Taylor misses or is limited because Hines is just so good. He has the 2nd most targets of any RB this season with 53, good for nearly 5 per game and is getting about 28% of the team’s red zone rushes (3rd most among RBs on the slate). In terms of HVTs, Hines has FIFTY-FIVE on the season, good for 5 per game while also ranking 9th in points per snap and 4th in points per touch. Last week he ran hot in a trailing game script, but even if the Colts handle the Texans, Rivers loves throwing to his RBs (25% of his passes) and Hines has a terrific receiving floor with upside for much more if he gets the <10 yard carries and/or scores a TD.
DK OWN% – 7.7%
FD OWN% – 4.9%
Damien Harris → It always feels incredibly risky to target a RB with no catching upside, especially on a full PPR site like DraftKings, but the Pats have shown they clearly trust Harris to be the RB1, at least on early downs. Since Week 10, Harris has rushed on 47/67 RB rushing attempts for the Pats (70%) and 64% over his last 2, and 73% in Week 12 with Burkhead now out for the season. As mentioned above, the Chargers are 2nd to last in rush DVOA, giving up around 25 fantasy points to the position on the season, and with how run heavy the Pats are, I expect a lot of attempts for Harris with serious upside for 100+ yards and a score.
DK OWN% – 2.7%
FD OWN% – 3.2%
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Davante Adams → Just play him every week… DK Metcalf just took Slay to town with 10 catches for 177 yards and Adams is such an alpha with nearly a 30% target share, THIRTY RED ZONE TARGETS and a 2.96 yards per route run (1st in the league).
Brandin Cooks → I expect Cooks to be one of the highest owned players on the slate as Fuller is suspended for getting ROIDED UP, Cobb is on IR, and Kenny Stills got released, leaving just Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Mitchell/Coulter for the WR core. It does not feel good to eat Texans chalk, especially against a strong Colts defense, but I will let opportunity/usage trump matchup in this case. Fuller was averaging nearly 7 targets a game while Cooks was already averaging 6.7 targets per game with Fuller on the field. The targets have to go somewhere and I think Cooks should see an increase to his 21% target share, build on his 17 red zone targets, and be Waton’s go to option in a game the Texans should be trailing.
Robert Woods → I didn’t expect Woods to be a leverage option, but also didn’t expect him to get this much buzz; however, it makes sense, as Woods is averaging 11 targets per game over his last 4, even more than Cupp (8.3). Over their last 4 games, the Cardinals have given up the 9th most points to WRs and Woods comes in with one more Red Zone target on the year compared to Kupp along with further upside on rushing plays as he has 4 red zone carries this season, including 2 inside the 5 (both TDs). He feels much too cheap at only 5900 on DK and 7100 on FD with a great floor and matchup against Patrick Peterson who is not what he once was, as he’s given up 4 TDs in coverage this season (tied for the 2nd most among CBs on this slate) along with a 1.17 yards per route covered.
Justin Jefferson → I mentioned it on the podcast this week, but Jefferson is the exact kind of guy you want in tournaments as he has a lower floor than his counterpart Thielen, but carries a massive slate-breaking ceiling with an absurd 12.9 yards per target, a 2.91 yards per route run (2nd to only Adams), and 6.5 targets per game. Jefferson doesn’t need to get peppered with targets like some WRs as he is reliable for a ton of deep shots and is incredibly efficient, ranking 2nd in points per snap, 5th in points per touch, and running a route on 58% of his snaps (compared to 50% for Thielen).
Favorite Leverage Options
Michael Thomas → Well MT is now down to 7000 on DK, a comical 7200 on FD, and is the only WR with upside while Taysom Hill is under center. MT has been injured most of the season and hasn’t shattered records like last year, but he’s now averaging 7.8 targets per game over his last 4 and in the 2 games since Taysom took over, he has seen 17 targets compared to a total of 13 targets TOTAL between Sanders/Harris/Tre’Quan Smith/Jared Cook/Adam Trautman. Thomas should easily be able to get separation from Darqueze Dennard with upside for a multi-TD game should Taysom not run it in.
DK OWN% – 4.6%
FD OWN% – 5.2%
A.J. Brown → I get the love for Derrick Henry this week, and he’s a great play, but I love the leverage with the Titans passing game against a very banged up Browns secondary with the Titans having the 2nd highest implied point total on the slate. Over 7 games this season, Brown is averaging 6.8 targets per game, including 13 red zone targets, and is locked in along with Corey Davis as Tannehill’s favorite WR options through their first 11 games. Brown can always be considered as somewhat of a “boom/bust” candidate, but he ranks 7th in points per snap, 3rd in points per touch, 7th in yards per route run (2.43). The Browns defense is much improved this season, but they quietly only rank 23rd in pass DVOA. P.S. I also love adding Corey Davis for the Tannehill/Brown/Davis stack as the Titans will need to keep up with how bad their defense is this season.
DK OWN% – 5.5%
FD OWN% – 6.1%
Mike Williams → I feel like I’m missing something here, but Mike Williams is under 5000 on DK, under 6000 on FD, and is most likely going to avoid Stephen Gilmore… at sub 3% owned. Williams is averaging 6 targets per game over his last 4, 5.6 per game on the full season, and despite being the clear #2 behind the presence of Keenan Allen, he still has 16 red zone targets (only 5 less than Keenan), ranks 13th in points per touch, and is running the same amount of routes as Keenan at around 58%.
DK OWN% – 2.4%
FD OWN% – 2.6%
Josh Reynolds → Probably my favorite value of the week, Reynolds has clearly defined himself as the WR3 in this offense, playing 75% of the Rams snaps and garnering 7.3 targets per game over his last 4 games. This week, he gets a tremendous matchup against an awful Dre Kirkpatrick, who is giving up 1.51 yards per route covered (also allowed 45 receptions in coverage along with 2 TDs). Last week, Reynolds ran a route on 100% of Goff’s drop backs and took on 26% of the team’s air yards and with Kupp/Woods each projecting for 12-18% ownership, Reynolds provides great leverage in what should be a fast paced/high passing % game at 3-4% ownership and super cheap price.
DK OWN% – 4.0%
FD OWN% – 3.0%
Keelan Cole → This last play becomes much riskier if Chark does suit up, but Keelan Cole doesn’t need to do much, especially full PPR DK at only 3800, to hit some value. Cole is averaging 5 targets a game, both on the full season and his last 4 games, and with Mike Glennon at the helm, his slot role and shorter aDOT gives him a decent floor for the price. On the season, Cole has played on 77% of the Jags snaps and has run a higher percent of routes than Chark (76.3%; third highest among WRs on the slate) and I don’t expect him to be owned by hardly anyone, regardless if Chark plays.
DK OWN% – 3.2%
FD OWN% – 2.7%
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Darren Waller → As it is almost every week this season, Tight End is a wasteland in Week 13 and I expect Jordan Akins to be heavy chalk (hard pass), with Waller probably coming in as the 2nd or 3rd highest owned. I think Waller will probably be under owned to what he should be coming off a horrible last game in a great matchup; however, this week he gets the Jets, who have given up on average 17.5 fantasy points to tight ends over their last 4 games, which keep in mind, is against much less athletic and talented tight ends compared to Waller. With 7.8 targets per game, good for a 26% target share, 24 red zone targets, and ranking 1st in targets per route run (0.26) of tight ends on the slate, Waller is the best TE play on the main slate and is probably underpriced given his role and weighted opportunity rank this season (1st among all TEs on the slate).
T.J. Hockenson → I love Hock this week especially if Golladay sits, which I expect him to, as he ranks as the #1 tight end in my ranks this week, as he’s maintained about 6 targets per game and has shown serious efficiency with 17 red zone targets while ranking 4th among TEs in points per snap, and 7th in targets per route run. Hock leads the Lions in end zone targets this season, with 9, and per Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com, Hockenson has 6 of the team’s 8 targets inside the 5-yard line. Chicago has a strong defense but has given up a whopping 15.8 fantasy points per game to TEs (highest in the league), which accounts for 31% of their total receiving points allowed this season.
Favorite Leverage Options
Austin Hooper → The Browns are a frustrating team to target this season, at least passing/receiving wise, as they play slow, are the most run heavy in the league, and have played in several low scoring/windy/bad weather games. The good news for Hooper is that the Titans defense sucks, ranking 2nd to last in DVOA against TEs and have given up over 16 points on average to the position this season and over 14 over their last 4 games. Hooper has the 3rd most targets on the Browns over their last 4 games and the 2nd most end zone targets over that same span. At sub 4000 on DK, 5300 on FD, he doesn’t need to do a TON to hit some value for us and despite only about 4.3 targets per game, he doe rank 9th among all TEs on the slate in targets per route run (0.20).
DK OWN% – 4.4%
FD OWN% – 5.3%
Robert Tonyan → It has been quite a season for Tonyan, as he ran SUPER HOT at the beginning, did nothing for several games, and has now gone for 15.4/17.7 fantasy points over his last 2 games. He will always be miles behind Adams in team target share, but he does have the 10th most total targets of all tight ends on the slate, averaging about 4 per game (11.3% target share), has an impressive 11.2 yards per target and 10 red zone targets. He’s cheap, tight ends on the main slate suck, and he’s a great compliment to a Packers stack.
DK OWN% – 5.6%
FD OWN% – 3.3%
GPP and Ownership Overview
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being CLE/TEN or MIN/JAX, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. Also, this week is GROSS in my opinion for games with tougher matchups for high powered teams and slower paced games for usually high scoring teams… great week to be more contrarian! I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
