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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 9 Slate Review
Week 9 certainly felt like I was on the right games, even the right stacks in my opinion, but a god awful game from Russ (at least in the turnover department), once again guessing wrong on the Lockett/Metcalf ball out game, and Justin Jackson getting hurt in WARMUPS really sunk my cash teams. In tournaments, I felt very confident about CMC’s returning role and he did smash, but I got slammed as Edmonds had a terrible game despite all the Cardinals points, Derrick Henry didn’t do much, and James Robinson had pretty much a floor game. In the case of WRs, it was an interesting slate as the NFL once again proved that while matchups can definitely be meaningful, it is never anything close to an “end all, be all” as Lockett had an elite matchup away from Tre’ White but DK Metcalf still dominated, I thought Justin Jefferson was in a great spot along with Thielen but the game ended up being the Dalvin Cook show again, which is not surprising at this point. I think this upcoming week is VERY interesting as there are a few RBs (coming up) who should be insane chalk, a few WRs that should be far more owned than most, and it creates some great leverage spots where if the chalk were to fail (which happens often), you could find yourself with an advantage over 30-40% of the field by pivoting away.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Kyler Murray/Josh Allen/Russell Wilson – Kyler Murray has truly been something else through the Cardinals’ first 8 games, as he’s averaging just under 40 drop backs per game, but to along with efficient passing and elite WRs in Hopkins/Kirk/old man Larry, he is rushing at an insane rate to the point where I have him projected for 10 or more rush attempts this week against Buffalo. Kyler has officially edged out Russ in points per drop back, ranking 1st for QBs, and is facing a below average Buffalo pass defense that should be faster paced with the Cardinals the 3rd fastest team in the league. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen hasn’t been as elite as he was in his first few games this season, but he’s facing a team that will definitely be scoring and a Cardinals D that has given up over 300 yards of offense in every game this season and over 250 pass yards in 6 of 8 games. Allen has thrown for 300+ yards in 5 of 9 games this season, ranks 3rd in points per drop back, and is right behind Kyler, who has 6 rushing TDs this season as Allen has 5 thus far. Lastly, a poor game for Russ and now the Seahawks have cooled off a little bit from their hot fire start. Russ ranks 2nd among QBs in points per drop back, has already thrown 28 TD passes, and has 300+ yards in 5 of 8 games, and has also shown some serious rushing upside this season, rushing 5-7 times per game at over 7 yards per rush to couple with his elite passing.
Favorite Leverage Options: Tom Brady (4.4% on DK, 2.8% on FD)/Deshaun Watson (7.7% on DK, 7.3% on FD) – Coming off a god-awful performance in a marque Sunday Night Football game, no one is going to play Brady. The Panthers corners have been better than expected this season, but they still only rank 21st in Pass DVOA and over their last 4 games have given up nearly 24 fantasy points to QBs. Brady has been more volatile this year than year’s past, but has still thrown 20 TD passes, has dropped back the third most of any QB this season, and I expect a bounce back where he should be able to feed Godwin in the slot and Gronk, as the Panthers have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs over the last 4 weeks. Deshaun maybe isn’t a “low owned” leverage but he I do expect him to be much lower owned than the likes of Russ/Kyler/Allen/Rodgers/Goff. Deshaun is playing at such a high level right now and I think despite a strong defense this year, the Browns still only rank 20th in Pass DVOA and against elite QBs such as Burrow and Dak, they’ve been shredded for 500+ by Dak, and over 300 and 400 from Burrow. Deshaun has thrown for 300+ in half his games this year, and that includes his first few with Bill O’Brien and I think this is a sneaky game that could shoot out with the Texans horrific defense.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Mike Davis/Aaron Jones/Duke Johnson – I think these 3 RBs will be far and away the highest owned and probably for good reason… even though the Bucs are probably the best or second best rushing defense in the league, Mike Davis is the stone minimum after only one week of CMC being back and now CMC is going to be out again. Pure usage play but Davis is a very tough fade in any format as he still saw 6 targets last week even with limited snaps and CMC back and before he was back he was averaging 5-7 targets per game along with the 3rd most High Value Touches (“HVT”) per game out of all NFL RBs (53 on the season). Aaron Jones is in a smash spot against a Jaguars defense that cannot stop anyone as they’re the worst defense in the league per DVOA and have given up on average 28 fantasy points per game to RBs through their first 8 games this season. Jones has the most Red Zone targets of any RB this season (10), ranks Top 10 in points per touch and points per snap, and is averaging 5.3 targets and 5.8 HVTs per game, good for 5th among all RBs. Lastly, the Duke play doesn’t feel good, but with David Johnson set to miss this is a usage play similar to Mike Davis. After David Johnson got a concussion on the first drive last week, Duke game in and was given 16 rushes, 4 targets (which he caught them all), and the Browns have given up an average of 24 fantasy points to RB this season along with ranking 2nd to last against RB receiving, giving up about 44 receiving yards per game. It’s worth noting, and a smaller sample than top tier running backs, but of his 34 rush attempts this season, Duke has forced a missed tackle on 7, good for 20.6% of his rushes.
Favorite Leverage Options: Miles Sanders (11.8% on DK, 12.8% on FD)/Antonio Gibson (4.1% on DK, 3.4% on FD)/D’Andre Swift (6.8% on DK, 5.9% on FD) – I wonder if this will be like Week 2 where Sanders came off an injury and was fully healthy but no one played him in a great matchup. In his 5 games this season, Sanders is averaging 5 targets per game, and while the Giants defense is not a complete dumpster fire, they’re still giving up about 25 fantasy points per game to RBs and in their first meeting with Philly a few weeks ago, didn’t get crushed, but still gave up 96 rush yards in what seemed like a much too close of a game where the Eagles never got out to a lead. Antonio Gibson REALLY has a great matchup this week and it’s interesting to see almost no one talking about him. The Lions are ranked 3rd to last against RB receiving, giving up on average 48 receiving yards to RBs, rank 25th in Rush DVOA, and have given up an insane 35 fantasy points on average to RBs in the full season and 38 points over their last 4 games. I wish Gibson was more involved in the passing game, but he is receiving a majority of the rushes and has the 2nd most forced missed tackles of all RBs on the slate (23), which accounts for 25% of all his rushing attempts. On the other side of the ball, and I probably wouldn’t use them in the same lineup, Swift continues to somewhat see his snap count go up and although barely being above dusty Adrian Peterson, Swift is running a route on 58% of his snaps, and 4.3 targets per game. His rushing upside is very limited as he averages well under 10 per game, but does have 4 rushing TDs on the season, and has been very efficient, ranking 10th of all RBs on the slate in points per snap and 3rd in points per touch to go along with 4.4 HVTs per game (35 total on the season).
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Davante Adams/Stefon Diggs/DeAndre Hopkins/DeVante Parker – Man I’ll keep talking about how insane Adams is despite everyone already knowing how elite of a talent he is right now. 11.2 targets per game this season, 12.1 over his last 4 games, 1st in points per touch among WRs, 2nd in yards per route run (3.26), 1st by a wide margin in PPR points per route, and the Jaguars have given up 400+ yards of passing offense in 4 of their last 5 (388 in the one they didn’t). Diggs has the most WR targets in the NFL, has 20 red zone targets, and 28% of his team’s total targets, and the Cardinals have given up the 5th most points to WRs over the last 4 weeks. Diggs is the clear alpha in this offense and despite an expected shadow from Patrick Peterson, I don’t think he’ll struggle at all and should continue his heavy usage of 10+ targets per game. Hopkins has the same analysis as Diggs in which he has a tough matchup with one of the better CBs in the league in Tre’ White but the Bills actually rank 3rd to last in DVOA against WR1s and I view Hopkins on the same level as Diggs/Adams/Julio/etc. where he is more or less matchup proof and should be fed targets regardless. Hopkins has the 5th most total targets of WRs, good for 9.1 per game, and although the target share has dipped a little bit the last few weeks, he should see plenty of volume in a must win for the Cardinals to keep up in their very strong division. Lastly, I don’t have him projected for insane ownership right now (12% or so on both sites), but Parker should be chalk and with their injuries/trades at WR, it’s hard to see him not getting peppered with targets from Tua. With the QB change, there was some initial concern as in the first game versus the Rams, Tua barely threw as the defense carried them but last week in a more competitive environment, Parker saw 7 targets and nearly 33% of the team’s air yards. Parker’s matchup isn’t elite as Casey Heyward is still a tougher CB, but I like the volume here and he seems much too cheap on both sites.
Favorite Leverage Options: Will Fuller (6.4% on DK, 7.2% on FD)/Brandin Cooks (6.0% on DK, 5.3% on FD)/Jerry Jeudy (6.8% on DK, 6.9% on FD)/Laviska Shenault Jr. (1.8% on DK, 1.6% on FD) – Will Fuller has surprisingly been out targeted by Brandin Cooks this season and especially in the last 4 weeks, with Fuller averaging 7.5 over his last 4 and Cooks nearly 10, but I like both a lot in this matchup. Cooks has a much tougher matchup with Denzel Ward whereas Fuller should be lined up with Terrance Mitchell, but I like both of them in this game and like stacking both together with Deshaun. The offense is pretty concentrated on these 2 with both playing about 83% of the snaps, both running similar amounts of routes, both with similar target shares, and the duo accounting for 56% of the team’s air yards. The Houston defense stops no one, forcing Watson to be throwing most of the game, and although the Cleveland corners are strong, they can be beaten, as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins shredded them in Week 7, with Boyd going for 11/101/1 and Higgins 5/71/1 and Cleveland is giving up about 7 PPR points above the league average to WRs through their first 8 games of the season. Jerry Jeudy has quickly become one of the two guys that Drew Lock looks to in his first reads, along with Noah Fant. Jeudy is seeing 7.3 targets per game, has 13 red zone targets, and the Raiders rank 28th against WR1s, 29th against WRs, and are the 26th ranked defense against the pass, per DVOA. Despite the Broncos definitely not being a “dominant” offense by any means, Jeudy is definitely a bright spot that I think goes under owned in a great matchup with 31% of the team’s air yards and the 4th ranked WR in total air yards this season. Lastly, definitely more of a punt than anything, Shenault doesn’t need to do a TON to be a solid value play at his price and while he’s not the alpha of the Jaguars offense, he is running a route on the same percentage of snaps as Chark (approx. 67%), and maybe most important this week, DJ Chark should be shadowed by Jaire Alexander, one of the very best shut down CBs in the league this year. Shenault has a low, low floor but at what should be sub 3% ownership, and averaging nearly 5 targets a game, he could be a great cheap owned WR that if he hits value allows you the more expensive pieces.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Dallas Goedert/Noah Fant – The tight end position is always interesting, but this week without Kelce, Ertz is hurt, Mark Andrews not on the slate, it’s hard to say who will really be the “chalk,” but I do expect Goedert so garner some of the most ownership. The Eagles have been crushed by injuries all year, so Goedert represents one of the only reliable options for Wentz and although not horrific against TEs, the Giants still give up on average about 13-14 fantasy points per game to the position. Goedert has only played in 4 games this season but is averaging 5 targets per game and has utterly no competition with Richard Rodgers the only other TE who should be active. The aforementioned Noah Fant feels like an awesome play this week as Albert O went out for the season last week and Fant should see even more targets, adding to his 6.4 targets per game, against the Raiders, who have given up the 7th most fantasy points to TEs over the last 4 weeks.
Favorite Leverage Options: Rob Gronkowski (5.7% on DK, 5.0% on FD)/Eric Ebron (2.1% on DK, 2.7% on FD)/Jordan Reed (2.4% on DK, 1.4% on FD) – Gronk has slowly but surely become a solidified part of this offense over the last several weeks, and despite all the weapons the Bucs have, including Antonio Brown now, Gronk has the 6th most total TE targets of all TEs in the league, averaging 5 per game, and has the 2nd most red zone targets (behind Waller), with 16 on the year. It’s also worth mentioning that over the last 4 weeks, the Panthers have given up the 3rd most points to TEs, averaging almost 18 given up per game. Ebron continues to not be peppered with targets but is getting in the end zone and pretty efficient for his price and snap counts. On the season, the Bengals have given up an average of 17 points to the TE position and in the last 4 weeks, they’ve given up an average of 23.4, which is 5 more points than the next worse defense against TEs. Ebron is averaging 5.4 targets per game and has 12 total red zone targets, good for 4th most among TEs. Lastly, and similar to Shenault this is a definite high-risk play, Jordan Reed has only played in 4 games this year but with Kittle out and Dwelley apparently not taking over that role, I like Reed to be involved in this passing game. The Saints have been smoked by TEs this season, giving up the 7th most points to the position, and in his 4 games, Reed average 4.6 targets per game, had 6 red zone targets, and currently ranks 1st at the position in points per touch and 1st in targets per route run (0.37).
Final Thoughts
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being ARI/BUF or SEA/LAR, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
