NFL Week 4 Ownership and Leverage Report
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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on. Head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it. They fall into group think more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 3 Slate Review
Week 3 saw more chalk bust then the public expected, obviously, while we had some home run spots come through as expected as guys like Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Russell Wilson crushed a terrible Cowboys defense, Cooper Kupp continued to increase his snap% and target share on the Rams, and Josh Allen continued to dominate early in the season. On the other side, Miles Sanders was a letdown at around 30% ownership in tournaments against a terrible Bengals defense as we found out that maybe the Eagles just aren’t that good? Matt Ryan and Cam Newton were in seemingly strong spots, but Ryan and the Falcons blew another lead en route to Ryan only scoring 12.4 DK Points while Cam and the Patriots didn’t have to throw or do much to beat a bad Raiders defense as he only scored 12.2 DK Points. Onto Week 4 where at first glance we aren’t presented with massive value at the WR/RB position like previous weeks, but a ton of high Vegas total games on the main slate.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Russell Wilson/Dak Prescott/Deshaun Watson– I don’t see a reason why I would write up Dak and Russell as good chalk the first 3 weeks and then stop now… their defenses suck, the Seahawks are letting Russ throw ( to the tune of a 90% adjusted completion rate, 14 TDs, and 0.88 points per drop back, which ranks 1st), while Dak has loaded receivers, ranks Top 10 in points per drop back, and is rushing in the red zone 28.6% of the time… oh yeah and averaging 52 drop backs per game. They good. I thought Deshaun could end up being lower owned/sneaky but I think he’ll end up being one of the more owned QBs and for good reason… the Texans schedule has been brutal, his defense sucks, and they have a matchup against the Vikings this week who are averaging the 3rd most fantasy points again through 3 weeks, including over 20 to QBs and almost 50 to WRs… I expect the Texans to get back on track here and that starts with Watson and company.
Favorite Leverage Options: Jared Goff (5.6% on DK, 7.3% on FD)/Cam Newton (6.1% on DK, 5.8% on FD)/Matthew Stafford (2.5% on DK, 2.2% on FD) – Goff never really gets a ton of ownership because his outcomes are pretty wide, no matter the matchup; however, his home/road splits are a thing and this week he gets the already bad and now beat up Giants secondary… his team has the highest implied point total on the slate, and although he’s only averaging 33 drop backs per game, he has been very efficient, landing 5th of QBs on the slate in points per drop back and an 85.7% adjusted completion rate, which is 2nd to only Russ. Cam Newton has been damn efficient as he hasn’t thrown as much as you want to see for a slate breaking QB, but when he has to he can, ranking 3rd in points per drop back and showing massive rushing upside to the tune of 4 rushing TDs thus far this season. His 34% red zone rushing rate combined with great chemistry with Edelman and Harry in a game they should be trailing in KC, I love this spot for him. Lastly, I get suckered into Staff and the Lions most weeks and once again here we are… Stafford hasn’t been fantastic this season, but is averaging 40 drop backs per game and maybe against a strong team (I think they’re strong?) like the Saints, Patricia won’t force feed Adrian Peterson 40 times… fat chance. Golladay came back for Stafford last week and he gets a matchup he can definitely win against Lattimore and although it seems odd, the Saints have given up the 5th most fantasy points per game, including 23.2 DK Points to QBs… love Stafford as a leverage play in a potential shootout game.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Alvin Kamara/Ezekiel Elliott/Mike Davis/Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kamara is averaging 10 targets a game, has THIRTY FOUR HVT (High-Value Touches, per Ben Gretch) so far this season, and is facing a Lions team that will have no answer for him. The Lions have allowed 29.8 DK Points a game to much worse RBs… he’s an elite play in any and all formats. Cleveland’s run defense is definitely better this year and I know Zeke hasn’t had a massive ceiling game yet, but he’s averaging 6.7 targets per game (14.5% of the Cowboys targets), has played over 90% of the Cowboys snaps, and has the 2nd highest touch% of all RBs (behind Derrick Henry)… his volume makes him an elite play no matter what the matchup or game environment is this week. I thought Mike Davis might be super chalk last week, but alas that wasn’t the case and this week he got a price bump. In his first game without CMC he 9 targets of which he caught 8 for 45 yards and although the Cardinals defense is terrible, Teddy will continue to have a low aDOT and provide a ton of dump offs to Mike Davis each week until CMC returns… I think Davis is an awesome play in both cash and tournaments. CEH started off the season with massive hype as the presumed bell cow and has far exceeded those expectations with 4.7 targets per game through 3 weeks, between 18-20 rush attempts per game, and 19 HVT through 3 weeks (4th among all RBs). It’s widely known that Belichick tries to shut down the opposing team’s best player and this week I have to believe that’s Kelce or Tyreek Hill so CEH should continue to see a large share of targets and rushes in a game that the Chiefs are expected to be leading as 7 point favorites.
Favorite Leverage Options: Austin Ekeler (4.3% on DK, 6.9% on FD)/Myles Gaskin (8.5% on DK, 7.7% on FD)/Devin Singletary (4.9% on DK, 5.7% on FD)/James Robinson (9.3% on DK, 11.5% on FD) – Thank god Herbert is starting for the Chargers because week 1 Ekeler only saw a single target… but Week 2 he saw 4 and last week he saw 11 as he’s returned to the RB1 on the team. Tampa Bay has a great run defense but I think Ekeler still has a massive floor/ceiling with how many check downs he gets from Herbert, a big 8.9 YPT (Yards per Target), and despite the low implied Vegas total for the Chargers, I think Ekeler still has a ton of paths to success despite the matchup and game environment. I hope Gaskin doesn’t get chalky because I’ve been excited to play him all week against a Seahawks team that has given up the most DK Points per game of any team in the NFL. Gaskin is the pass catching back for the Dolphins, averaging 5.3 targets per game on top of ranking 5th amongst all RBs in the league in tackles avoided per rushing attempt with 12 through 3 weeks. Gaskin is cheap at 5k on DraftKings and only 5.4k on FanDuel that he doesn’t need to score multiple TDs or have 100+ yards rushing to hit value but he should see a high snap count and volume if the Dolphins get down early to the extremely high-powered Seahawks offense. Singletary and Robinson are players I think most of the public will skip as Zack Moss could return in Singletary’s case which would lower his volume and snaps on the field potentially while Robinson probably feels overpriced at 6.5k on DraftKings and 6.6k on FanDuel. Robinson has been a breakout candidate on a bad team thus far this season, getting just under 4 targets a game, handling nearly 65% of the rushes for the team, and averaging 0.64 points per snap, good for 3rd among all RBs on the slate. It’s difficult to predict the Bengals/Jags game, but the Bengals have given up 30.8 DK points on average through 3 games this season, so the spot is prime for Robinson. Even with Moss potentially back in the mix, the Bills are facing a Raiders team that has given up a whopping 45.5 points on average to RBs this season, per game, so I think there’s enough points to go around even with Josh Allen’s rushing attempts.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: DJ Moore/DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett/Amari Cooper – Similar to what I said above about Russ, the volume is very concentrated on both Lockett and DK Metcalf, as they account for over 50% of the targets for the team through 3 weeks with both averaging 6-10+ targets per game. If I had to choose one I would probably play Lockett as he should avoid Xavien Howard and has a very high floor in his slot roles; alas, both are elite plays in an elite matchup. DJ Moore may be the highest or top 3 highest owned on the slate, but he has to have some TD regression coming soon… right? Moore gets to lineup against the washed Dre Kirkpatrick, is seeing 8.7 targets a game (25% of the team’s targets), is averaging 2.2 yards per route run (16th amongst all WRs), and has seen the 5th most Air Yards of WRs on the slate (350)… high weighted opportunity + great matchup + team that should be trailing = elite play. Cooper has seen 34 targets through 3 games (11.3 on average), has 5 Red Zone targets, is playing for the highest paced team in the league, is facing a team who’s given up the 7th most points to WR on average (and 2/3 were bottom tier teams), and has 350 Air Yards through 3 weeks (tied for 5th most)… I like him.
Favorite Leverage Options: Stefon Diggs (6.5% on DK, 9.4% on FD)/Keenan Allen (5.0% on DK, 5.7% on FD)/Tyler Boyd (3.9% on DK, 5.1% on FD)/Terry McLaurin (4.2% on DK, 4.7% on FD)/Kenny Golladay (7.6% on DK, 5.5% on FD)– If John Brown is out, I think Diggs becomes one of the better plays on the entire slate but even if John Brown plays, Diggs is averaging over 9 targets a game, already has 7 Red Zone targets, and clearly has built a great rapport with Josh Allen. Add in that Diggs is playing 91% of the team’s snaps and that the Raiders lost their best rookie CB; the spot is awesome for Diggs at what could be well under 10% ownership. Justin Herbert seems to like Keenan Allen, as he’s targeted him at an insane clip, 11.3 times per game to go along with Allen’s league leading (among WRs) 9 red zone targets through 3 games. Allen now gets to face a Tampa Bay secondary that I still think sucks in a game where they’re 7.5 dogs… he should continue to see insane volume with a massive ceiling. Yes, A.J. Green should probably see some positive regression soon, but Tyler Boyd is the WR1 on this Bengals team. Burrow is dropping back over 50 times a game and Boyd is running a route on 76% of his snaps along with playing 81% of the snaps overall (both higher than Green). In what is a more than beatable Jags secondary, Boyd should continue to see at least his 8.3 targets per game and easily beat what is now a pretty washed up DJ Hayden in the slot. If McLaurin had a competent team, or QB for that matter, he could be the #1 WR in the league in most categories, but despite all of that, he has proven himself to be matchup proof with 8 targets a game, 2.4 yards per route run (14th among WRs), 5 red zone targets, and enters a game where the Washington Football Team are 13 points underdogs. Even with Haskins at QB, McLaurin should continue to see heavy volume as he’s averaging 17.4 DK points through 3 games and one of the higher ceilings of all WRs on the slate. Golladay made his season debut last week and didn’t show any signs of rust, seeing 7 targets, playing 73% of the snaps, and running a route on 57% of those snaps. Stafford will force feed him the ball, as he should, and in a game where they’ll need to throw to stay competitive, I expect even more snaps and targets for Golladay against the Saints.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Darren Waller/Logan Thomas – People don’t seem to be fooled by Waller’s bad performance last week but as said above, Belichick’s plan is to shut down the opposing team’s best player, and that’s exactly what he did to Waller (2 catches for 9 yards). This week, Waller lines up against the Bills, who have given up the 7th most points to TEs and a game where both Ruggs and Edwards should miss, leaving Derek Carr’s options Waller and Hunter Renfrow, for the most part. Waller has the most targets in the league among all TEs, with 27 (9 per game), has 5 red zone targets, and should see insane volume of 10+ targets with how depleted this Raiders team is this week. Logan Thomas should be so much better statistically… if Haskins could just get him the ball better. Thomas is seeing 8 targets a game and is pretty much Haskins’ only look besides McLaurin on each drop back. Thomas doesn’t have any competition at TE on his team, as he’s playing 83% of the snaps, and is running a route on 63% of those snaps (9th most amongst TEs). The Ravens defense is strong and may get to Haskins before he has much time to throw, but they’ve also given up the 4th most points on average to TEs this season (18.8), so Thomas once again finds himself in a great spot at way too cheap a price on both sites.
Favorite Leverage Options: Dalton Schultz (3.2% on DK, 3.4% on FD)/Hunter Henry (5.0% on DK, 4.4% on FD)/Mike Gesicki (3.9% on DK, 4.9% on FD) – I’m surprised Schultz isn’t getting more buzz for a team that has no defense and playing in one of the highest Vegas implied totals on the slate. Schultz has proven to be more than competent after Blake Jarwin went out for the season, with 6.7 targets per game, 6 red zone targets, and playing nearly 70% of the Cowboys snaps. Further, he’s running a route on 58.6% of those snaps and guess what? Cleveland can’t stop tight ends and is giving up the 3rd most fantasy points on average to opposing TEs… love this spot. I certainly seem to like a large of Chargers on this slate… which can’t be good; however, Henry is seeing 23% of the Chargers targets (2nd to only Keenan Allen) and although the matchup isn’t as great as some others, his volume and super low ownership makes him a perfect tournament leverage play. Playing nearly 85% of the Chargers snaps along with a route on 52% of those snaps makes Henry one of my favorite pivots of what should be a few popular Tight Ends around him such as Waller/Hockenson/Logan Thomas/Andrews. Lastly, maybe I’m missing something here, but why is Gesicki not projected for higher ownership? He’s a de facto receiver for the Dolphins that is designated as a Tight End and is one of the few TEs in the league that has multiple TD upside. Although not playing as many snaps as some of his peers at the position, he’s run a route on 69% (NICE) of his snaps this season, good for 4th most amongst all TEs. With one of the higher implied totals on the slate combined with a very beatable matchup against K.J. Wright, I love Gesicki to continue to see is 20+% target share and an awesome tournament play on both sites.
Final Thoughts
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being DAL/CLE, SEA/MIA, DET/NO, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack (for example, not saying this is optimal or a route I’m going; Michael Thomas + Alvin Kamara with no Drew Brees or Adam Thielen + Dalvin Cook without Kirk Cousins). And again, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
