NFL Week 3 Ownership and Leverage Report
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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Slate Overview
Week 2 will be remembered, at least for a few days maybe, as the week that it seemed like EVERYONE got hurt, and more importantly for the fantasy community, a lot of big production fantasy players went down, including CMC, Barkley, Mostert, Jimmy G, Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard, and the list goes on and on… in terms of the leverage report from last week, I had some very good: Tannehill/Davis/Smith and Aaron Jones and some quite bad: Barkley had about 3 points before tearing his ACL… but we have a very interesting week here as Zeke is the highest priced RB at only $8,300 on DK and at WR there are a bunch of stone minimum guys that are very playable and several top priced receivers either questionable or a GTD on Sunday.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Kyler Murray/Russell Wilson/Dak Prescott/Cam Newton– Tons of good QB options this week and I think there’s about 6-8 that are very viable in any tournament and probably 4-5 that are viable for cash. Kyler/Dak/Russ have become almost auto plays every single week as they all are on fast paced teams with bad defenses, causing more scoring opportunities. Cam Newton has looked awesome the first 2 weeks and has pretty much become the Patriot’s #1 running back option as well as a more than solid passer through 2 weeks… like I said above, all of these players are viable in any and all formats.
Favorite Leverage Options: Matt Ryan (5.4% on DK, 5.4% on FD)/Joe Burrow (1.5% on DK, 1.1% on FD)/Jared Goff (1.6% on DK, 1.4% on FD) – I’m a broken record talking about Matt Ryan, as Ben said on the podcast this week, but I still don’t understand why he’s never that high owned. Ryan is on a team with a god awful defense and they will find themselves in a competitive or trailing matchup most weeks, which goes along with his stats as through only 2 games he’s already dropped back 97 times and thrown for 723 yards and 6 TDs… this week is a SLIGHT downgrade if Julio sits, but Ridley is an elite WR1 or WR2 option, Hayden Hurst has proven to be solid, and Russell Gage is a better WR than he gets credit for from the fantasy community. The Bears defense isn’t bad but they’re definitely not the shutdown that they’re been the last few years, as I expect Ridley to line up with Kyle Fuller… and roast him, Russell Gage gets Buster Skrine… LOL… and Julio, if he plays, has the “toughest” matchup in Jaylon Johnson but he’s matchup proof, so it’s a moot point. The next 2 guys I like as they’ll get almost no ownership and should each find themselves trailing most or all of the game. Burrow has the most drop backs in the league through 2 weeks, with 112, and similar to Ryan, he has a horrific defense that should be giving up a lot of points. I think slightly underrated about Burrow is that he has rushing upside, as he has 15 carries this year for 65 yards, 1 TD, and he’s taking 20% of the red zone rushes and 13.3% of the team’s rushes inside the 5. Jared Goff is definitely risker as he has the ability to throw for 300+ and 3 TDs or throw for 78 yards and 2 picks… I like the Rams to be in a faster paced game with how fast the Bills play and with the Bills being the better team, I expect the Rams to be trailing. With their RB situation unclear with injuries, I think Goff relies on Kupp, Woods (probably shadowed by Tre White), and Higbee en route to probably 40+ pass attempts.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Miles Sanders/Kenyan Drake/Ezekiel Elliott – Sanders is the top play on the slate as he for some reason is under 7k on DraftKings and under 8k on FanDuel against a team in Cincy that has given up, on average, 38.3 points to RBs through 2 games. Sanders looked fully healthy last week and saw 7 targets, 20 rush attempts, and 20% of the red zone attempts. Drake and Elliott I expect to be very popular as well, and for good reason, as Zeke has the most targets in the league for RBs (11) and has nearly a 40% touch percent on his team to go along with a high floor for catches… lock and load. Drake’s ceiling has definitely been lowered with how much Kyler runs but he’s still seeing 53% of the team’s rushes and about 14% of the red zone rushes. He’s too cheap for a guy who has a role in the passing game, with a fast paced and high-powered offense with a Vegas implied total of 30.
Favorite Leverage Options: Austin Ekeler (6.1% on DK, 7.1% on FD)/James Conner (6.7% on DK, 7.7% on FD)/Antonio Gibson (3.7% on DK, 2.7% on FD) – I think Ekeler is in a great leverage spot this week as most will be scared off by the time share with Kelley (which is definitely annoying) and I think Kelley sees inflated ownership at a large discount; however, with Herbert in last week, Ekeler saw 4 targets and still rushed 16 times for 93 yards. Carolina has already been torched by both Jacobs and Fournette, so I think there are plenty of touches and points to go around. I like Ekeler to continue to be involved in the check downs/pass game over Kelley and will come in as someone with a high ceiling and low ownership. Conner is one of my favorite plays on the slate as someone who always has injury concerns but last week rushed for over 100 yards, saw 2 targets, and is getting nearly 23% of the red zone rushes. Even further, on the year, Conner has 9 “High-Value Touches” (HVT, stat introduced by Ben Gretch who previously worked at CBS; HVT are rushes and catches inside the 10 yard line), which would account for almost 35% of his total touches on the year. Let’s also not forget that he’s facing a god-awful Houston defense that’s given up over 30 points to RBs on average the first 2 weeks. Gibson is my final leverage and definitely very risky; but, I like him as a pivot from what I expect to be very high owned Devin Singletary/Jerick McKinnon/Mike Davis and I think he will continue to be more and more used as a workhorse as Peyton Barber is phased out. He played 65% of the snaps in Week 2 and per PFF, he leads the NFL in forced missed tackles per touch and despite a strong Browns defensive line, I think Gibson is a great value at his price on both sites.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Deandre Hopkins/Tyler Lockett/Amari Cooper/Calvin Ridley – All of these guys are elite plays and I expect to be high owned as they’re in the 2 highest Vegas total games of the week and all facing below average defenses. Hopkins has been Kyler’s go-to guy with 25 targets through 2 weeks, while Cooper/Ridley/Lockett are all seeing 23-26% of the target share on their respective teams. Ridley in particular has already seen 10 red zone targets, the most in the NFL for WRs on the main slate and is 3rd amongst WRs in points per snap.
Favorite Leverage Options: Cooper Kupp (3.5% on DK, 3.9% on FD)/Tyler Boyd (1.7% on DK, 2.6% on FD)/Desean Jackson (5.3% on DK, 4.6% on FD)/Darius Slayton (5.3% on DK, 4.1% on FD) – As mentioned above, since Goff is definitely risky, it makes Kupp risky as well, but a tremendous leverage play at WR. Kupp should avoid Tre White and be able to mop up targets in the slot and looked much better in week 2 compared to week 1 as he saw 6 targets and had 2 rushes for 100 total yards. He’s probably more favorable on DK with full point PPR but I think he’s a great pivot from some of the WR chalk as someone who has 100+ yards and 2 TD upside. The Eagles have a fine defense, but I think they’re much stronger against the run compared to the pass and as I said about Burrow, this should be a game the Bengals are trailing. Boyd has 13 targets through 2 weeks and has a much better catch rate than his counterpart A.J. Green. I think Green is in play if you’re making a Bengals stack, but I like the target floor that Boyd offers, and he should be owned by virtually no one. Desean Jackson has the 2nd most air yards of all WRs through week 2 and everyone knows he is very boom/bust; however, with Reagor now out, Alshon Jeffery hurt, and the other WRs available on his team being Greg Ward and JJ Arcega-Whiteside, I think Jackson is set up to see high volume again. Jackson had 7 targets in week 1, 9 targets in week 2, and still hasn’t scored and now gets to face a more than beatable Cincy secondary. Lastly, Slayton faces a similar situation to Jackson as Barkley is now out for the year, Shepard is out, and his current target share of 18.7% should only rise against a very banged up SF secondary this week. He took a major step back last week after a great Week 1, but I think he has a floor of around 5-6 targets and is cheap across both sites.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Logan Thomas/Jonnu Smith – Similar to last week, I don’t think there are very many “chalk” TEs this week, but I do see Logan Thomas probably coming in at the highest at around 10-15% on both sites. Thomas continues to be underpriced despite having now seen 17 targets through 2 weeks, including 5 red zone targets, for a market share of 27% on his team. He’s running routes on approximately 60% of his snaps, good for 13th amongst all TEs, and gets to face a horrible Lions defense. Jonnu popped up on the injury report late this week so monitor that news, but if he plays, he’s a great TE target even at a heightened price tag. He’s seeing almost 20% of the team’s targets, has 4 red zone targets, and ranks 1st amongst all TEs in points per touch (4.75).
Favorite Leverage Options: Dallas Goedert (4.3% on DK, 5.0% on FD)/Hunter Henry (5.1% on DK, 5.2% on FD)/Dan Arnold (2.0% on DK, 1.6% on FD)– Goedert is my favorite tight end on this slate as he is never more than 5% or so owned and you wouldn’t realize but he’s seen more targets than Zach Ertz this season, has a higher YPT (yards per target), has more red zone targets, and has a higher points per snap than Ertz. As mentioned above, with the Eagles full of injuries, I expect them to continue running 2 TE sets and we’re getting him at 5% or lower on both sites when he has played 84% of the team’s snaps, run a route on 58%, and boasting a 1.93 yards per route run. Hunter Henry has seen 8 targets in each of his first 2 games, good for almost 27% of the team’s targets, and has 3 red zone targets without a score. I expect him to remain heavily involved with Herbert at the helm as he played over 80% of the snaps last week and now gets to a face an awful Carolina defense. Lastly, Dan Arnold is definitely a dart throw, but he’s under 3k on DraftKings, $4,300 on FanDuel, and although not seeing a ton of targets by any means (5 total through week 2), it’s encouraging to see that he’s played 64% of Arizona’s snaps and has run a route on 61.4% of his snaps, which is good for the 10th most among Tight Ends on the main slate.
Final Thoughts and Ownership Fades
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and also don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s). Guys I’m most likely fading (GPPs) as of this writing (Friday morning, so things could change with late news on Sunday morning):
Jerick McKinnon (I actually prefer Jeff Wilson Jr. at a much cheaper price/way lower owned)
Dalvin Cook
KJ Hamler/Damiere Byrd in tournaments (if I see they’re going to be 10+% owned)
All of the Jets
Darren Waller
