NFL Week 2 Ownership and Leverage Report
Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Slate Overview
After an exciting week 1 which saw some pretty clear chalk spots that came about towards the end of the week due to late injuries and final news up till Sunday, after digesting and updating my ownership projections I think there is an insane amount of misprices/value WRs with high projected targets and volume, and both cheap RBs and WRs in high paced, high Vegas total games. I think cash will be much less obvious this week, on both sites, as besides a few obvious plays, at least to me (i.e. Jonathan Taylor at under 6k on DraftKings, Diontae Johnson at 4500 on DraftKings, and CeeDee Lamb and Parris Campbell too cheap on both sites) so you have to pick and choose the game script you want to target to identify your favorite value plays. While I think there’s always merit to fading pretty much any chalk, or say 95% of the time there, I think the pricing gives us several spots that are clear cut cash plays but make viable fades in tournaments that could get you ahead of 20-30% of the field if the player has a floor game.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Dak Prescott/Kyler Muray – Dak finds himself in a game with Atlanta that was gashed by Russell Wilson and company last week as Russ dropped 35 DK points against a brutal Falcons secondary that now has to face arguably the best, or Top 3, WR core in the league… Dak’s stats may not look spectacular from last week but he showed his rushing upside and if that questionable PI call hadn’t been there, he’s looking at a solid 20+ fantasy day… lock him in. Kyler will probably be the highest owned QB but he’s in an awesome spot after clearly connecting with Hopkins, while in his own right, rushing for nearly 100 yards and completing 65% of his passes. The Cardinals as a whole are priced down and this week they get to face Washington instead of a much tougher SF defense.
Favorite Leverage Options: Deshaun Watson (3.5% on DK, 3.3% on FD)/Ryan Tannehill (3.4% on DK, 3.6% on FD) – Watson wasn’t perfect in the NFL opener versus Kansas City and I think some numbers could get propped up as the game was out of reach, allowing him to score nearly 22 fantasy points and pay off some value; however, this week the face another tough test in a game that should be both high scoring but also force the Texans to throw it just as much or more. Will Fuller is not DeAndre Hopkins but he looked more than serviceable as the WR1 for Watson and I think combined with his rushing upside (rushing TD in week 1), Deshaun has a 30+ point ceiling while going under 5% owned. Tannehill is my favorite contrarian QB in Week 2, and while I’m more than willing to admit it could blow up in my face, he is a very efficient QB who has more than adequate options at WR and should be able to easily beat a very bad Jaguars secondary. Despite only scoring 16 points in week 1 against Denver and Derrick Henry rushing 31 times, Tannehill still threw over 40 passes which resulted in 2 TDs and a very close 3rd (barely overthrew AJ Brown). I have Tannehill ranked as my 7th best QB on the slate (per stats and opponent) yet he’s only the 14th highest priced QB on DraftKings and the 18th most expensive on FD. I think he has sneaky upside and costs around 2k or so less than Lamar/Mahomes at ¼ of the ownership.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Jonathan Taylor/Zeke/Derrick Henry – Jonathan Taylor seems like the closest thing to a “free square” at RB I’ve seen in a long time. He didn’t rush that many times last week (9 in total), but now that Mack is out for the season, Reich said Taylor that is the starter and I expect him to get a full workload. Sure Nyheim Hines will rotate in and get some touches and leech some TDs, but Taylor looked like a good runner but even more importantly, an excellent pass catcher, catching all 6 of his targets for 67 yards and even lining up in the slot a few times… plug and play. Zeke and Henry are not cheap value plays by any means but with their volume each and every game, they’re too cheap. Zeke is facing an Atlanta team that gave up 35 fantasy points last week to Chris Carson and friends despite Russ also throwing all over them while Henry is facing the Jags who gave up a combined FIFTY fantasy points to the Indy running backs in Week 1. Henry isn’t part of a timeshare, they should be winning/leading this game, and similar to Zeke, he should continue to see a 40+% touch percent each and every week.
Favorite Leverage Options: Saquon Barkley (5.5% on DK, 5.8% on FD)/Aaron Jones (5.7% on DK, 6.2% on FD)/Miles Sanders (3.5% on DK, 3.8% on FD)/Ronald Jones (7.3% on DK, 6.9% on FD) – Barkley looked god awful as a rusher on Monday night as he had 15 rush attempts for 9 yards; however, 1) the Giants were trailing all game against a far superior team and probably the best defense in the league, 2) he saw the most targets of any RB Week 1 with 9, which resulted in 23% of the team’s total targets. He is still the bell cow back for the team, has one of the higher floors for both targets and overall touch% for his team (40+%), and is now facing a Bears defense that is not as dominant as last season… really like him as a leverage RB up top. People don’t really like to play Aaron Jones as most think of GB as a pass first offense as they have a top QB in the league, but, Jones still gets a large share of the rush attempts, saw 6 targets last week, and this week faces a Lions defense that has a subpar line and will most likely be trailing most of the game. Miles Sanders was projected to be the chalk 30+% owned RB in Week 1 before getting ruled out and despite being a full participant in practice all week and good to, he’s now projected under 5%. The Eagles are tough since they use multiple RBs most weeks and while the Rams have an above average D-Line since Aaron Donald is a man amongst men, the volume should still be there for Sanders in Week 2 after Carson Wentz struggled late in week 1 against Washington. No one knew how to project the TB RBs Week 1 since they have about 100 of them and they now have Tom Brady with 2 elite WRs and a very athletic TE; however, Ronald Jones saw 65% of the team rush attempts, had 3 targets, and saw 33% of the team’s red zone rush attempts in a game that Brady struggled and they were trailing the whole game… now, Jones gets the Panthers defense which has just about no one good and got destroyed for 46 fantasy points by the Raiders run game in Week 1.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Davante Adams/Julio Jones/Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb/Diontae Johnson – Not exactly sure we can project Adams for 17 targets and a 42% target share each week (although we might), but he’s so far and away the go-to guy for Rodgers he’s in play every week no matter the matchup and he should torch this Lions secondary with ease. Much like Adams, Julio is not coverable and this week, per PFF, has the 5th best WR/CB matchup in a game with the highest Vegas total on the slate. Saw 12 targets Week 1 to go along with the 2nd most Air Yards (188) of all WRs… always in play for one of the highest ceiling plays on any slate. Amari and Lamb are great options to go along with what I said about Dak and Zeke… volume is there, Dallas played at the fastest pace of any team Week 1, and with Jarwin now out for the season, Amari should continue to see a 25+% target share and Lamb immediately proved himself as an elite slot option as he saw 7 targets to Michael Gallup’s 3 and continue to operate out of the slot, where he played 90% of his snaps week 1.
Favorite Leverage Options: Will Fuller (3.4% on DK, 4.2% on FD)/Corey Davis (5.7% on DK, 5.1% on FD)/Anthony Miller (3.5% on DK, 3.4% on FD)/Mike Williams (3.4% on DK, 2.6% on FD)/Darius Slayton (5.0% on DK, 5.3% on FD) – Fuller saw 10 targets week 1 and is the clear number 1 option for Hopkins… yes the Ravens D is pretty good but I expect Fuller to be matched up with Marcus Peters, which I think is more than beatable as long as Watson has enough time to throw. In the middle of this writing AJ Brown got ruled OUT on Sunday so Davis could end up being higher owned than this, but he looked solid week 1, seeing 8 targets and playing the same amount of snaps and running the same amount of routes as AJ Brown (82% of snaps, ran route on 37%). It’s only a week 1 sample, but he did average 2.6 yards per route run and as mentioned earlier, the Jaguars defense is certainly not top tier. Miller is tough to trust for a few reasons, 1) Mitch is not very good and 2) based on week 1, he didn’t play a TON of snaps; however, what I do like to see is that he got 6 targets, 3 of which were in the red zone, and although he played less than 50% of the snaps, he ran a route on 82% of snaps that he played. He should see Darnay Holmes in the slot this week, who’s awful, and if he gets the volume he could be an awesome leverage smash play. Mike Williams saw 8 targets week 1, one more than Keenan Allen, in a game that they didn’t throw a TON but Tyrod seems to like him on the deeper routes. He will always be a boom or bust guy with a high ceiling and very low floor, but he had the 5th most Air Yards of WRs on the main slate in Week 1 and the Chargers will need to be throwing to keep up with KC. Lastly, and this is mainly FD oriented, but Slayton is only the 46th most expensive receiver on there and with the possibility of Tate missing Week 2, Slayton saw 8 targets Week 1, which includes 3 red zone targets, and could pay off his value and a lot more if the Giants can complete some passes.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Logan Thomas/Mark Andrews/Hayden Hurst – I don’t see any of these guys realistically being over 10-12% owned but Logan Thomas looked great Week 1, seeing 8 targets, caught a TD, and most importantly, he played 74% of the snaps and ran a route on 60% of them. That’s great usage and volume for a TE that still is under 4K on DraftKings and under 5K on FanDuel. Andrews needs little explanation… he’s Lamar’s favorite target and despite only 6 targets for around 50-60 yards week 1, two of those were TDs and I expect him to get tons and tons of red zone looks all year. Similar to Logan Thomas week 1, Hurst played approximately 75% of the Falcons snaps and ran a route on almost all of them (72%). Hurst should see a lot of Jaylon Smith, a weak corner, in what PFF grades as the 2nd best TE/CB matchup of the week.
Favorite Leverage Options: Hunter Henry (3.3% on DK, 3.2% on FD)/Jonnu Smith (3.4% on DK, 2.4% on FD)/Noah Fant (2.6% on DK, 2.4% on FD)/T.J. Hockenson (3.0% on DK, 4.1% on FD) – I talked about liking Mike Williams earlier but Hunter Henry also saw 8 targets, which was good for 2nd most of all TEs on the slate in week 1. He had the highest target % of all TEs in week 1, at 27%, and I like that he solid aDOT of over 9 from Tyrod. Jonnu should benefit from AJ Brown out and I like him to see the same or even more targets than he did week 1 (7). The Broncos have a tough matchup in week 2, but with Sutton either limited or out and their defense very depleted, they should be throwing the ball a lot. He had 5 catches for 85 yards and a TD week 1 with only 6 targets and is not in the top 10 highest priced TEs on either DraftKings or FanDuel… if Sutton does in fact sit, I think he’s the top value TE for the week. Lastly, Hockenson didn’t work out for me last week, but he did see 5 targets, including 2 in the red zone, and with him and Jesse James both starting TEs for the Lions, Hockenson was the only one who ran routes when he was on the field and I still believe that Stafford will look his way more and more. Plus, with him being over 5K on DraftKings, I really don’t see his ownership getting even up to 5%.
Final Thoughts and Ownership Fades
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and also don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s). Guys I’m most likely fading (GPPs) as of this writing (Friday morning, so things could change with late news on Sunday morning):
Melvin Gordon
Terry McLaurin
Mike Evans (if Godwin sits)
Benny Snell (if I play him, I’ll play him in 1 of 5 and probably be even/lower than the field in own%)
Chris Herndon
