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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on. Head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants, however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is imperative when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 14 Slate Review
It certainly felt like last week, at least to me, that a ton of chalk really hit with several of plays in the “chalk I’ll eat” sections doing well with Derrick Henry crushing yet again, Rodgers/Adams continued to do their thing, and Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce continued to be unstoppable. My main GPP lineup consisted of a Bucs/Vikings stack and the Vikes never really got anything going with Jefferson/Thielen both underperforming and Gronk catching 1 ball for 2 yards, which did happen to be a TD, but wasn’t nearly enough to do much of anything. The other leverage plays were rather blah as well, as Jonathan Taylor DID smash, which was great as that helped me take down 2 Afternoon DK “tiers” contests, but Gaskin ended up being ruled out, Zeke continued to struggle, and Lazard/Boyd didn’t do much of anything as Lazard just can’t get enough volume with Adams out there and the Bengals just don’t have a reliable quarterback. We’ll move onto Week 15 in which we have 11 games compared to the normal 12-13 and a ton of interesting leverage spots as there should be some pretty condensed chalk on the top tier RB/WR plays and a couple games that we can expect a ton of the industry to target/stack.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Kyler Murray → I really think QB is going to be spread out this week with no “obvious” or super chalky plays in GPPs/cash but I do think Kyler will be, and should be, one of the higher owned. The Eagles have had a very underrated defense all season with one of the top defensive lines in the league and ranking #1 in adjusted sack rate; however, they have quite a few players set to miss that severely limits their ability to get pressure as Rodney McLeod, Avonte Maddox, and possibly Darius Slay (concussion protocol) could miss this game. Kyler projects out for me nearly the same as Patrick Mahomes but comes in $900 cheaper, less ownership, and a better matchup as the Eagles rank 22nd in Pass DVOA on the season. I believe Kyler has healed from his shoulder injury, ranks 4th in points per drop back among all QBs in the league, and brings a tremendous floor/upside with his WR/RB weapons combined with his rushing upside.
Jared Goff → NEVER feels good to play Jared Goff at any sort of ownership… or for that matter, it never really feels good to play Jared Goff in general. Nevertheless, the matchup just can’t be ignored… the Jets are obviously a mess, incapable of stopping anyone, giving up over 27 fantasy points on average to QBs over their last 4 games to go along with ranking dead last in Pass DVOA. While the potential blowout and low Vegas total may not look enticing on the surface, the Rams still have an implied point total of over 30 so it would be wise to get exposure to what is a very efficient and semi-concentrated offense.
Favorite Leverage Options
Ryan Tannehill → While nearly 30% of the industry on DraftKings, probably near 40% on FanDuel, flock to play Derrick Henry, and a very sharp play that is, I still love the leverage we get with the Titans passing attack. Yes, the Lions have been shredded by RBs; however, they are equally vulnerable to the pass, giving up nearly 8 points more than the NFL average to QBs over the full season, rank 3rd to last in Pass DVOA, and Tannehill continues to be extremely efficient. Tannehill ranks 7th among all QBs in points per drop back, has a healthy 28/5 TD/INT ratio and while Henry should be a ton of touches, this projects as one of the fastest games on the slate (Titans 3rd in pace of play; Detroit 11th), so we have the potential for a ton of plays run by both teams and a lot of opportunity for both the pass and the running attack.
DK OWN% – 5.2%
FD OWN% – 5.4%
Tom Brady → Well, I wrote up Brady last week and that didn’t work, so I guess we’ll go back again. The Falcons… suck. Their rush d while underrated and actually pretty decent, the same cannot be said for their piss-poor pass defense. We spoke about pace of play above but this game, but this one is even more appealing with the Bucs 4th in neutral pace of place rank and the Falcons 6th over the full season. The Falcons are a complete pass funnel, ranking 20th in Pass DVOA and 20th or worse against WR1/WR2/WR3 and TE while Top 5 against the rush. Further, the Bucs should be without their lead rusher Ronald Jones which could lead to at least as many, or more, drop backs for Brady. He will continue to be more volatile than years’ past, Brady that is, but the matchup couldn’t be much better and the Bucs currently sit in a strong playoff standing which in turn, I’m assuming, should have them more aggressive.
DK OWN% – 5.4%
FD OWN% – 5.3%
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Derrick Henry → This writeup gets easy towards the end of the season as players like Derrick Henry don’t need a ton of explanation… Henry is averaging about 23 rush attempts per game, leads the NFL in total rush attempts (297), he has a real shot to get to 2,000 rushing yards for the season, is averaging 5.2 YPC, and forcing a missed tackle on over 18% of his attempts. Oh, he also is getting on average 3.5 High Value Touches (“HVT” per Ben Gretch) in a matchup against the 26th ranked rush DVOA defense that’s giving up over 31 fantasy points on AVERAGE to RBs this season… I like this play.
Alvin Kamara → I’m slightly frustrated because I thought Kamara was going to be a great leverage play last week after quietly seeing 10 targets in a game the Saints were trailing; however, with Brees back this Sunday Kamara should be come chalk as well as one of the better value plays on the slate. Albeit with Michael Thomas missing several of the games, in Weeks 1-9 with Brees under center, Kamara was seeing a 25% target share, which was good for SEVENTY targets in 8 games (8.8 per game) and while the Chiefs have an above average pass defense, they rank 3rd to last in Rush DVOA and 2nd to last in receiving yards against RBs. This seems like a smash spot for Kamara as he ranks 1st among RBs on the slate in red zone targets (11), 4th in points per snap, 1st in points per touch, and has an astounding 99 HVTs on the season, (a nice 26 higher than the next closest Zeke), which averages out to 7.6 HVTs per game, or, about 43% of his touches are “High Value.”
Jonathan Taylor → Taylor’s ownership should skyrocket this week after an explosion game last week combined with a Top 3 RB vs. Defense matchup this week against the Texans. Clearly, Frank Reich has decided that Taylor is only to be used in the right game scripts (Shaking. My. Head.), but we should get that here as the Texans are just too injured, have too poor of a defense, and have been out of the playoff race for a while now. JT is finally getting a least somewhat of a majority of the snaps/touches, has shown a floor of 2-4 targets, and ranks 7th among RBs on the slate in points per snap, and is getting 3.8 HVTs per game (46 total on the season). It isn’t much, but I’ll take what I can get with the full season snap % for the Indy RB going JT 46% > Hines 37% > Wilkins 20%.
Cam Akers → Similar to Taylor, Akers should be mega-owned this week after he obliterated the Patriots terrible run defense and with many hoping McVay has finally realized that he should be the RB1 for the foreseeable future. Over his last 4 games, Akers has averaged 15.3 fantasy points and over that same time period has gotten 67% of the team’s rushing attempts, 16 of the 18 red zone carries, and 6 of 7 of the carries inside the 5… it seems like he has solidified himself as the RB1 and despite the Jets rush D being the “least bad” of their issues, I will bet on volume and Akers’ efficiency as the Rams are massive favorites at home.
Favorite Leverage Options
D’Andre Swift → We definitely have some riskier leverage plays here but scared money don’t make money… so let’s start with Swift. The game script isn’t great for the Lions as they may be without Stafford and are massive dogs; however, I said this last week and I’ll say it again here, the Titans defense is REALLY bad. Like one of the worst in the league. They have given up nearly 26 fantasy points on average over the season to RBs and while Swift remains in a 3-way timeshare with considerably worse RBs, he has still been incredible efficient with 4-7 targets per game, 9 red zone targets, and ranks 5th in points per snap and 2nd in points per touch among all RBs on the slate. Further, he ranks Top 10 among RBs in HVTs per game (4.6) so while he’s pricy and doesn’t have the implied team totals of other star RBs, he has a decent floor and big upside if he can get into the end zone.
DK OWN% – 5.1%
FD OWN% – 5.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire → This play I assume will come in even lower than I project below and is similar to last week with Aaron Jones where yes, I prefer playing Mahomes with the likes of Tyreek and/or Kelce, but we can get CEH at half or a third of their ownership while still being on the fast-paced/high powered Chiefs offense. I was worried last week about how low CEH’s usage had fallen, but he saw 21 touches against the Dolphins and while he doesn’t have the insane ceiling of Tyreek/Kelce, he still is seeing 4+ targets per game, has 8 red zone targets on the season, and lastly, despite the Chiefs very pass-happy offense, CEH is still getting about 4 HVTs per game.
DK OWN% – 8.0%
FD OWN% – 9.0%
Kenyan Drake → I think most would be surprised, as I was, that Drake has the 5th most rush attempts on the season and has played 1 less game than the likes of James Robinson/Derrick Henry/Ezekiel Elliott. He is tough to trust with how much Kyler runs/takes red zone carries, but Drake is seeing 17-20 carries per game, 2-4 targets per game, and has 18 inside the 5 yard carries in 12 games. I would normally hesitate more against the Eagles, but they are missing key pieces and have quietly given up 22-24 points per game to RBs over the full season.
DK OWN% – 7.3%
FD OWN% – 6.3%
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Brandon Aiyuk → I expect Aiyuk to be one of the highest owned players on the entire slate and how can we hate it… even with Nick Mullens at QB. First, he gets the Cowboys, who rank bottom 5 in DVOA against both WR1 and WR2, Deebo Samuel is set to miss, and Aiyuk is averaging nearly 8 targets per game in his 10 games this season and a massive 12.5 over his last 4 games. Further, he quietly has 24 red zone targets, which is good for 8th among WRs on the slate and ranks 16th in points per snap, 25th in yards per route run and should have no issue against the garbage Dallas CBs.
DeAndre Hopkins → In a weird way, I kind of hope Darius Slay is able to play because he continues to get destroyed by elite WR1 and I don’t see Hopkins treating him any differently. While seemingly “cooling off” the last several weeks, Hopkins is still averaging 9.3 targets per game over the full season, 9.8 over his last 4 games, and similar to the Kyler vs. Mahomes decision, he is $900 less than Tyreek Hill and should be significantly less owned. Hopkins has approximately a 29% target share, 32% air yards share, and has the 2nd highest WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rank) of all WRs on the slate at 0.67.
Tyreek Hill → He has the most air yards of any WR on the slate, ranks 1st in red zone targets and 1st in points per snap, 8th in yards per route run, 11.5 targets per game over his last 4, and I don’t really see a scenario in which any CB on the Saints, or any team, can keep up with him or shut him down… Hill has a 37% air yards share on the Chiefs, which is 10% higher than Travis Kelce… insanity.
Favorite Leverage Options
DK Metcalf → I don’t love Russell Wilson this week, or a full Seahawks stack for the matter, because their offensive line is so bad that I think the strong WAS front 7 is going to be a real problem; however, I love the upside that Metcalf brings even without a full stack. While specific DVOA stats have the potential to be noisy at times, I can’t ignore that the Washington Footballs have the 2nd ranked Pass DVOA defense, the 1st ranked DVOA against RB receiving, the third ranked against WR2/WR3 but rank DEAD LAST against WR1s, giving up nearly 80 yards per game. Averaging between 7-9 targets over the full season, and last 4 games, I think Metcalf is going to be fed early and often with the Footballs having very strong slot coverage, a strong run defense, and Metcalf having pretty unstoppable stats of a 11.6 YPT (6th among all WRs), 2nd most red zone targets behind Hill (35), and ranking 6th, 3rd, and 10th in points per snap, points per touch, and yards per route run, respectively.
DK OWN% – 8.8%
FD OWN% – 9.8%
Allen Robinson → While many Chicago fans loathe Mitch under center, A Rob is probably hype as he’s seen 11 targets per game over his last 4 and continues to be the only bright spot in a very underwhelming and boring offense. Over his last 3 games, Robinson has scored 27/14/30 fantasy points and now faces the Vikings poor secondary that has relinquished the 6th most points to WRs this season. With a 26% target share, 31% air yards share, and a Top 10 rank in WOPR, I think Robinson is one of the stronger leverage WR plays and one of the stronger overall leverage plays on the slate.
DK OWN% – 7.3%
FD OWN% – 11.5%
Chris Godwin → As I normally like to do, Godwin failed me last week in a big way so I might as well go right back at what should be even less ownership due to recency bias. Godwin’s efficiency has struggled this season due to 1) injuries and 2) Brady’s propensity to spread the ball every game. Still, Godwin has averaged 7 targets per game, 7.3 over his last 4, and should be lined up with a more than beatable Isaiah Oliver in the slot. While it’s always tough to decide between Evans and Godwin on a week to week basis (and I still like Evans as part of a stack), I will side with Godwin’s slightly higher yards per route run, his shorter aDOT which should lead to a higher floor on full PPR DraftKings, and what I think should be less ownership.
DK OWN% – 7.9%
FD OWN% – 8.0%
Corey Davis → If I asked you to name the #1 WR on the slate in yards per route run (so no Davante Adams included) and in your first 3 guesses you said Corey Davis then wow, you should be winning A LOT, because I sure as hell didn’t expect that. Yes, Corey Davis ranks 1st among WRs on this slate in yards per route run (2.76), is seeing 6.5 targets per game this season, good for an 18% target share and a whopping 32% air yards share. AJ Brown will always be the explosive, high ceiling guy, but I like Davis at what seems like no ownership and very efficient stats of the 5th highest YPT among WRs (11.8), 10th rank in points per snap, and $1800 cheaper than Brown on DraftKings ($1500 cheaper on FanDuel).
DK OWN% – 6.9%
FD OWN% – 5.5%
Jakobi Meyers → We’ve been down this road before and let’s just get it out of the way: Cam Newton looks horrible, the Patriots look horrible, and Newton has thrown for 120 yards or less in 3 of his last 4 games. Meyers was a super popular value a few weeks ago and while he hasn’t smashed, or anything close to it, he now sits at sub 5k on DraftKings, sub 6K on FanDuel, and has sustained a 20% target share, a 31% air yards share and an aDOT of 9.2 despite Cam Newton. Just saying, a target projection of 5-8 is not unreasonable for him and at the price/ownership, could be a tremendous value/leverage piece.
DK OWN% – 2.7%
FD OWN% – 3.0%
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Travis Kelce → LOL. Kelce has a 25% target share, 27% air yards share, 121 targets (next closest TE on the slate is at 83) on the season and is a tight end. He’s matchup proof, he gets 9 targets a game, has 24 red zone targets and ranks 1st in points per snap, 10th in points per touch, and 3rd in targets per route run… 8000 on DK seems insane but it’s really not and I expect he’ll be very popular… for good reason.
Mark Andrews → I wish Lamar was good at throwing. Or threw the ball more. Or used Andrews like he used to… or just anything positive. Nevertheless, I like Andrews this week as he still is seeing about 6 targets per game, good for 22% of the team’s targets and 26% of the team’s air yards and runs a route on about as high a clip as any TE (running a route on 60% of his snaps) and gets to face the Jaguars beyond awful defense.
Cole Kmet → I’m including a chalk punt this week because I currently have Kmet projected for 10-12%, which is awfully high for a TE that’s only $500 from the minimum on DraftKings; however, he’s seen a 20% target share over the last 2 games, has 16 of the team’s 25 TE targets over his last 4 games… maybe if he gets too popular he’s a fade in GPPs, but I love the usage and a guy that’s cheap and on the rise.
Favorite Leverage Options
Rob Gronkowski → I probably write about Brady/Godwin/Gronk too much but I’m ok with it. Gronk trails only Travis Kelce in total red zone targets this year (22 compared to Kelce’s 24), sees 4-7 targets per game (13-15% of the team’s targets), and he faces the Falcons, who have given up the 6th most points to TEs over the season (while also ranking 4th to last in TE DVOA).
DK OWN% – 2.6%
FD OWN% – 2.4%
Jared Cook → Jared Cook might not even be good, who knows, but with Brees back I like this play even more against a KC team that has been SHREDDED by TEs the last few weeks, and I mean just killed. Is Jared Cook an elite TE? LOL, no, but I can’t look past that over their last 4 games the Chiefs have given up fantasy points of 31.3/27/12.4/32, good for an average of nearly 26 fantasy points per game to the position. Cook wasn’t massively targeted with Brees in Weeks 1-9, about 4 targets per game, but he was targeted in the red zone/end zone, with 4 TDs. Quietly, in 12 games this season, Cook ranks 6th among TEs on the slate in points per snap and 2nd in points per touch.
DK OWN% – 1.7%
FD OWN% – 1.5%
Jordan Reed → IDK where Jordan Reed has come from recently, or how he is still playing football after a very concerning amount of concussions, but nevertheless, he’s dirt cheap, is averaging nearly 5 targets per game and ranks 2nd among TEs on the slate in points per snap and in targets per route run. Jordan Reed is seldom going to show any sort of ceiling close to the elites of the league like Waller/Kelce, but he’s also nearly 5k LESS than Kelce on DraftKings and is facing the 2nd to last ranked defense against TEs, per DVOA, in the league on a team that is down to basically Aiyuk/Kendrick Bourne, and him as the top receiving options.
DK OWN% – 4.6%
FD OWN% – 3.7%
GPP and Ownership Overview
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being KC/NO, TB/ATL, or TEN/DET, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “should” happen but rather what “could” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
