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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on. Head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants, however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is imperative when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Week 13 Slate Review
The highs and lows of DFS are always fun and tilting at the same time and last week was definitely the latter for yours truly. I don’t really like blaming down weeks on things like variance or “process over results,” but it did feel like I had the right ideas last week, or the right stacks, but I just couldn’t get a lineup together that I really liked and my results definitely showed that. If I was smart, I maybe would have lowered my volume or just played 3 entries instead of 5; but alas, I got smoked by maybe a few bad breaks (AJ Brown fumbling at the goal line, Ekeler doing nothing as the Chargers randomly got blown out by a bad Patriots team) and I totally fell for what I spot was a tremendous spot for the Seahawks against the Giants (thanks Pete Carroll). I also stupidly didn’t play Darren Waller after he burned everyone against the Falcons. In cash games I chose Perriman over Keke Coutee which stung a little bit, but we move on as we are now in the last quarter of the regular season.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Patrick Mahomes → What really needs to be said about Mahomes that most don’t already know? He’s thrown 31 TDs this season to only 2 INTs (both against the Raiders), has thrown for 300+ yards in 8/12 games, and per Mike Leone of ETR, the Chiefs continue to be the most pass-happy team in the league, passing at the highest rate over expectation in the league. The Dolphins aren’t slouches this year so I expect the Chiefs game plan to remain the same with the likes of Howard/Needham/Byron Jones struggling to keep up with the Chiefs elite passing attack.
Aaron Rodgers → Similar to Mahomes, we all know how good Rodgers is and how good of a season he’s having so he doesn’t need an elite matchup to project as one of the highest median projections on the entire slate. This week he gets the Lions, in a dome, who rank 29th in DVOA against the pass, rank 4th to last in adjusted sack rate. With how slow the Packers play, it makes sense that Rodgers is only averaging about 37 drop backs per game but he doesn’t need a ton of volume to smash as he’s been incredibly efficient with an 80% adjusted completion percentage and ranking 3rd among all QBs in points per drop back this season.
Favorite Leverage Options
Tom Brady → A couple weeks ago I wrote about Brady after the Bucs got smashed in what was a great spot and projected low ownership. This week Brady gets to face a very mediocre Vikings defense that is Brandon Thorn’s top OL/DL mismatch of the week with the Vikings sporting the league’s worst defensive line against the Bucs 4th best offensive line, a sign that Brady should have a ton of time in the pocket. Brady is much more volatile than year’s past with his age clearly being a factor, but he has the 6th most total drop backs of any QB in the league and when he has time, he can still pick apart bad defenses, with 4/12 of his games totaling 300+ pass yards in what should actually be a decently fast paced game as the Vikings rank 21st in pace of play and the Bucs 10th.
DK OWN% – 4.9%
FD OWN% – 5.6%
Ryan Tannehill → I loved Tannehill last week and he really got us there in garbage time but now gets a horrific Jags defense that ranks 31st in Pass DVOA and giving up nearly 25 points on average to opposing QBs this season. This should have the most or one of the most total plays run of all 13 games on the slate as the Titans rank 3rd in pace of play and the Jags rank 6th, along with both defenses being some of the worst in the NFL. Tannehill ranks 10th amongst QBs in points per drop back and similar to other mid/top tier QBs, he doesn’t need to throw 45-50 times to hit value as him/AJ Brown/Corey Davis/Derrick Henry should be able to put up a ton of points in a game that the Titans need to win to stay in the playoff race.
DK OWN% – 5.8%
FD OWN% – 7.2%
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Derrick Henry → Coming off a bad game where the Titans were trailing the whole time and Henry got game scripted out you would hope Henry might be low owned… but people are too sharp these days. The Jags are giving up approximately 30 points per game to RBs this season and over the last 4 weeks, 4th worst in the league, and we can easily project Henry to get at least 22-25 touches (his average for the season) or more as the clear alpha of the offense. Henry has 43 High Value Touches (HVTs) on the season, good for 3.6 per game and should continue to be the Titans’ red zone force.
James Robinson → On the other side of the ball, the Jags offense is basically just James Robinson at this point, who’s getting 4.5 HVTs per game, is getting 80% of the Jags rushing attempts (1st in the league), which equates to 18-22 rush attempts and 4-6 targets per game. The Titans defense is #bad, giving up 26-30 points a game to RBs, and despite the Jaguars being a bad team, they have at least an average offensive line against the Titans 5th to last ranked defensive line.
Myles Gaskin → It’s really a glorious week when I get to write about Myles Gaskin again, the true GOAT and my favorite RB in the league. In his return to action last week, Gaskin saw 70% of the Dolphins snaps, got 23 touches and although not scoring a TD, he had SIX touches inside the 10 yard line. It’s risky to view him as a no doubt “smash” play as the Dolphins are 7+ point dogs to the Chiefs, but Gaskin should have literally competition with Breida/Ahmed most likely out and despite the tough Vegas total, the Chiefs rank 3rd to last in Rush DVOA compared to their decently solid pass defense. I’ll take Gaskins 4-5 targets, 15-20 rush attempts, 6.3 HVTs per game at sub 6k on DK and exactly 6k on FD.
Favorite Leverage Options
Ezekiel Elliott → Zeke has been underwhelming to say the least not only since Dak went out but the entire season; however, he continues to get a lot of touches, with 16-20 rushing attempts per game, 4-5 targets per game, and leads all RBs on the slate in rush attempts inside the 5 yard line with 22. Elliott has 70 HVTs this season, second to only Alvin Kamara, and is in his first matchup in a while where 1) the Cowboys are favored and 2) going against a bad defense that gives up 23 points or more on average to the RB position.
DK OWN% – 8.3%
FD OWN% – 6.9%
Jonathan Taylor → I’ve been tough on JT all year as I thought he was overhyped and hadn’t really lived up, but it does seem like the Colts are ready to trust him more and he finds himself in a positive game script this week against the Raiders, who have been horrendous against RBs all season, ranking dead last in Rush DVOA. The play doesn’t come without risk, as his season snap share is still only 51% and if the Colts get down early we could see a lot of Hines, but JT is averaging over 5 YPC his last 2 games, averaging 19 fantasy points, and is a massive value on DraftKings, as only the 22nd most expensive RB on the slate, while he’s still a great play on FD, but the 11th most expensive.
DK OWN% – 8.7%
FD OWN% – 7.4%
Aaron Jones → When I call this a “leverage play,” it’s more because of how much more popular I expect Rodgers/Adams stacks to be and because Aaron Jones is never really mega chalk. Over the full season, the Lions have been shredded by RBs, giving up over 33 fantasy points on average and ranking 26th in Rush DVOA. It’s a small sample, but in the last few games, Jones has played over 60% of the snaps and averaged over 100 all purpose yards with around 20 touches, and one of those games was against a very strong Philly defensive line/rush defense. For context, the Lions are giving up over 9.3 MORE points on average to RBs than the rest of the NFL and maybe it’s just a coincidence, but Jones obliterated this same Lions defense in Week 2 for almost 50 fantasy points.
DK OWN% – 11.9%
FD OWN% – 13.7%
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Davante Adams → Adams has played in 10 games this season, averaging 10.8 targets per game, a 28% target share, 35 red zone targets, ranks 1st in points per snap, 1st in yards per route run (3.02), has a matchup with Amani Oruwariye who has given up 1.29 yards per route covered, has scored a TD in 7 straight games, and has scored 26 or more fantasy points in 5 of his last 7… I like him this week and I’m sure I’m the only one!
DK Metcalf → His price is now well above Lockett’s and I don’t think it will, or should, keep anyone off of him this week. Metcalf is averaging 7.8 targets per game, ranks 5th among WRs on the slate in Yards per Target at 11.9, 4th in total red zone targets (31), and is 8th in points per snap/2nd in points per touch. To top it off, Metcalf know gets to be lined up with Lamar Jackson, the CB (not the struggling QB), who has given up 5 TDs in coverage so far this season (tied for the 2nd most; also giving up 1.72 yards per route covered, which is the most of any CB covering WRs on the slate).
Keenan Allen → Keenan has the most total targets in the league for WRs, with 125 (10.4 per game), and the Chargers are facing a complete pass funnel in the Falcons, who have given up 14-17 points on average to RBs (Top 3 in the league), but 45 on average to WRs, the 2nd worst in the league. I’m not entirely sure what Isaiah Oliver’s plan is to stop Keenan but I wish him luck as Allen has seen 40 total targets over the last 3 games, is coming off a bad fantasy performance where he still saw 11 targets, and snapped his TD streak (scored every week from 8-12), so I expect a huge bounce back.
Favorite Leverage Options
Michael Thomas → He was under owned last week with Taysom still under center and I’m seeing the exact same scenario this week for last year’s dominant WR force. With Taysom at QB, the offense has completely changed with Kamara being rendered to sub 50% of snaps and MT being the only target that Taysom is interested in. Thomas is averaging 9 targets a game over his last 4 and although I’ve probably talked too much about WR/CB matchups in this week’s article, which admittedly can be a lot of noise, Darius Slay has been through the ringer the last few weeks, getting wrecked by Davante last week for 10/121/2, wrecked by DK Metcalf for 10/173/0 in Week 12, and I would definitely put MT in a very similar category as those 2 alphas. As mentioned above, the Eagles have a tough defensive line/rush defense, but rank 24th in Pass DVOA to go along with 24th/31st in WR1 and WR2 DVOA, respectively, so I love this matchup for MT to continue to rack up catches.
DK OWN% – 8.3%
FD OWN% – 11.0%
Adam Thielen → With the breakout of rookie Justin Jefferson this season, I don’t think people have at all “forgotten” about Thielen, but he definitely isn’t talked about nearly as much as year’s past, despite having a very efficient season. Thielen is averaging nearly 8 targets per game, 25% of the Vikings’ targets, and has 25 total red zone targets (all higher than Jefferson and Thielen has played 1 less game). Albeit the matchups have been tough, but the Bucs have been destroyed by the pass recently, giving up the MOST fantasy points per game to WRs over their last 4 (57.2 fantasy points per game) as they still present a brutal rush defense but have fallen to 8th in Pass DVOA and only rank 24th in WR2 DVOA.
DK OWN% – 10.1%
FD OWN% – 10.9%
Allen Lazard → The clear 2nd fiddle to the MAN that is Davante Adams, Lazard has averaged 5 targets per game in his 6 total games this season with a healthy YPT of 11.5 (8th highest in the NFL). It’s tough to trust anyone’s ceiling with Adams in the lineup, but Lazard is still playing nearly 75% of the Packers’ snaps, running a route on nearly 60% of his snaps, and is extremely cheap at the 30th most expensive WR on DraftKings (also sub 6k on FD) on a team that has the highest implied point total on the main slate.
DK OWN% – 3.3%
FD OWN% – 3.0%
Tyler Boyd → I wonder what Boyd would have done last week if he hadn’t gotten ejected shortly after his 80 yard TD in the first half. We know Dallas isn’t stopping anybody as they rank 23rd against the pass and 25th/32nd against WR1/WR2 DVOA, respectively. Boyd’s usage/projected targets certainly take a hit when it’s Finley or Brandon Allen throwing instead of Burrow, but lining up in the slot he should continue to see a high amount of short aDOT throws and at sub 5k on DraftKings (much more expensive on FD at 6700), he could easily smash value with multi-TD upside.
DK OWN% – 4.7%
FD OWN% – 2.0%
Mike Williams → Well I loved Mike Williams last week and that didn’t work at all as the Chargers showed nothing of use and got blown out 45-0 at home. Despite a bad fantasy performance, Williams still saw 9 targets and is averaging 5.8 over the full season and 6.5 over his last 4 games. He will always be a boom/bust play compared to his counterpart Keenan Allen, but he’s still seen 17 red zone targets and is running a route on 60% of his snaps, very similar to the 59% of Keenan. I like targeting Williams as either a flier or as part of stack as the Chargers continue to find themselves in high point total games and with 2 bad defenses, this could be a serious shootout if Matt Ryan proves to be capable.
DK OWN% – 2.7%
FD OWN% – 2.3%
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs
Travis Kelce → This feels similar to writing up Davante Adams… no one has an answer for Kelce with his 9 targets per game, 23% target share, 23 total red zone targets, and his overall snap%, which hovers around 87-90% of the team’s snaps per game. Miami’s outside corners in Byon Jones and Xavien Howard are quite good, but their slot/TE coverage is lacking and Kelce is completely matchup proof… he’s very expensive/will be chalk but if you can fit him he’s one of the most elite plays on the slate.
T.J. Hockenson → With Golladay projected out again, this matchup sets up again for Hockenson to see heavy volume in a game the Lions are expected to be trailing throughout. Over his last 3 games, Hock is averaging 8 targets a game (excluding Week 10 here where he got hurt), is averaging over 10 fantasy points per game, and is targeted the 4th most of any TE on the slate. Hock is playing 71% of the team’s snaps, running a route on 59% of those snaps, and despite the Packers covering TEs well this season, he has a clear height/talent advantage over Kirksey and I will bet on his volume/opportunity in what could be a very high scoring affair (currently implied for 55 points per Vegas).
Favorite Leverage Options
Rob Gronkowski → Gronk is tough to trust with serious confidence as he plays a high percentage of snaps (over 70%) but blocks a lot and is hindered by how much Brady spreads the ball. However, he’s still averaging 5.1 targets per game, has 21 red zone targets (3rd most among TEs on the slate), and with Mike Evans possibly set to miss, it could free up some serious volume for Gronk in a must win matchup at this point for the Bucs.
DK OWN% – 3.7%
FD OWN% – 4.2%
Evan Engram → With Daniel Jones back, I love the Engram play this week on a slate that once again is very baron of good TE options. Although far behind Kelce/Waller, Engram does have the 3rd most total targets of TEs this season, averaging 6.5 per game against a Cardinals team that is seriously leaking oil right now. With Engram only having 1 TD on the season it’s been tough sledding in terms of fantasy production, but it is encouraging that he’s seen 8+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games, which includes last week where Colt McCoy only attempted 22 passes.
DK OWN% – 6.1%
FD OWN% – 6.2%
GPP and Ownership Overview
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being TB/MIN or GB/DET, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “should” happen but rather what “could” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
