NFL Week 1 Ownership and Leverage Report
Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
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Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
I’m never going to talk anyone off of playing Lamar Jackson any week because with his rushing upside, his floor is the highest at the position, by far, and his ceiling follows suit. I think in Week 1, Lamar will be higher owned on FD compared to DK as he costs only 15.7% of your total salary compared to DK where he costs about 16.2%. I think the merit to fading Lamar is with a large spread, and a vast majority of the total Vegas total (48) coming from the Ravens side (28.5 points), I worry about how much Lamar will be throwing in this game if they get out to a big lead. While Lamar led the league in Points per Dropback last year (0.95), I only have him projected for the 19th most pass attempts this week.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Russell Wilson/Matt Ryan – Highest projected Vegas total on the slate, both defenses are weak, and I expect the Falcons high paced offense (7th in 2019) to force Matt Ryan to throw all game.
Favorite Leverage Options: Drew Brees (4.1% on DK, 4.2% on FD)/Matthew Stafford (3.7% on DK, 4.2% on FD) – Brees is not what he used to be in terms of heavy volume and deep passes as he’s much older now, but he has a plethora of weapons at his disposal and the QB I have projected for the most TDs on the main slate (2.09)… Tampa Bay should give the Saints a good test with elite receiving of their own and while the Bucs run defense was great last year and should be solid again, they still own a bottom 3 pass defense and Brees should be able to pick apart in what should be a high scoring shootout. Stafford is very hit or miss but in only 8 games last year before he got hurt, he ranked 5th in Points per Dropback and in 4 of his 8 games, he threw for over 300 yards. The Bears secondary is slightly overrated in my opinion and I like this game to over the Vegas number as well.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: CMC/Austin Ekeler – It’s always amazing to me that people fade CMC ever… even in cash games. I’m sure he’ll bust now that I said that but I have his floor on DK this week around 16-17 points and a few points less on FD (1pt PPR vs. 0.5pt PPR), but that is easily the highest on the slate and his ceiling is in the 45-50 point range… his volume is insane with 8.4 targets per game last year (23% of total team targets), and about 43% of the team’s total touches… he’s a lock each and every week. Ekeler is always a favorite of mine and now with Melvin Gordon finally gone, I love his expected volume as he lines up in the slot and I have him projected for between 4-7 targets against a very poor Cincinnati defense.
Favorite Leverage Options: Mark Ingram (6.8% on DK, 5.8% on FD)/Aaron Jones (4.1% on DK, 4.8% on FD)/Le’Veon Bell (2.8% on DK, 3.0% on FD)/Chris Carson (4.4% on DK, 5.9% on FD) – As noted above about Lamar, if the Ravens get out to a sizeable lead, I assume they will give Ingram some run to keep Lamar fresh/not risk an injury. It’s scary playing Ingram with how often Lamar runs but he still averaged 15 touches a game last year and despite only receiving about 36% of the carries, he still produced solid value and scored 15 TDs. Aaron Jones last year was frustratingly part of a committee and that is very possible this year as well; however, he averaged nearly 18 touches per game last year, saw 12% of the team’s targets, and commanded 31.7% of the team’s total touches. The Vikings are always assumed to have a strong defense but, in the offseason, they lost 3 starters from last year’s defensive line… Jones should be a fantastic pivot. Bell is annoying, the Jets are terrible, and Gase is a moron; however, Bell is going to be owned by just about no one and last year despite not having many spike games at all, still saw 15% of the team’s targets, 64% of their rushes, and ranked 3rd of all RBs in touch%, at 36.5%. The Bills defense is strong, but definitely possess a better pass than run D and as they try to limit big plays, Bell has a decently high ceiling and I have him projected for between 4-7 targets.
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Terry McLaurin/Davante Adams/DK Metcalf/Kenny Golladay – McLaurin is on a bad team and while Haskins last year left a lot to be desired, McLaurin commands so many targets and has a very high floor (approx. 12 points this week on DK, 10 points on FD) with a ceiling of 30+. The Eagles defense is not that great and yielded on average 42 fantasy points per game to WR last year. Terry is way too cheap for someone who averaged 10.1 Yards per Target in 2019 and 2.05 yards per route run on one of the worst teams in the league. Another misprice is Davante Adams who now has virtually zero competition on his team and already saw 23% of the team’s targets last year when he actually had other guys Rodgers would throw to on the Packers. The Vikings secondary isn’t what it used to be and in 2019, Adams ranked 3rd in overall WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rank). I expect big things from Metcalf this year and a good way to get that started will be his matchup against a putrid Falcons defense in week 1. He ranks nearly similar to Lockett in all statistical categories but should draw easier coverage and we’re getting a $700 discount. Lastly, Golladay ranked 3rd in Air Yards for WRs last year and that was with Stafford only playing 8 games and ended up with 32% of the market share of Air Yards. He should see 7+ targets in what I expect to be a high paced game in Detroit.
Favorite Leverage Options: Jarvis Landry (2.1% on DK, 2.1% on FD)/Jamison Crowder (3.8% on DK, 2.8% on FD), DJ Chark (4.8% on DK, 5.3% on FD), Tyler Boyd (4.3% on DK, 4.6% on FD), DJ Moore (6.0% on DK, 6.2% on FD) – Probably too many guys here to write a lot (already have rambled enough), but Landry saw 25% of Baker’s targets last year, which include a whopping 35 RZ targets… Jamison Crowder is an ugly play and like I said above, the Jets still suck, and he saw 24% of the share of targets in 2019 and albeit a small sample, did catch 22 balls for 165 yards and a TD in 2 games versus the Bills last year. Chark is one of the only good options on probably the worst team in the league in a game that they should be trailing. The Bengals are a contrarian stack I like on this slate and fair warning, it’s extremely risky; however, I think Burrow is going to be the first solid QB they’ve had in some time and even though AJ Green is back in the mix, he should draw Desmond King whereas Boyd should be able to beat a now older Chris Harris in the slot. DJ Moore was a beast last year and had a horrific QB… the Panthers D is god awful and he should be lined up with Damon Arnette, who PFF ranks as the 7th best matchup for a WR on the main slate.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: George Kittle/Hayden Hurst/Mark Andrews/ – Don’t even care how high his price is, Kittle is such a dominant force in this offense with a 23% target share, saw 22 RZ targets in 2019, and had under 5 TDs… massive positive regression is coming and no one can stop him. Oh yeah, Arizona also allowed on AVERAGE 22 fantasy points per game to TEs in 2019. Hurst is risky and could end up being a cheap chalk bust, but Matt Ryan targeted Austin Hooper (now on CLE) at about an 18% clip last year and Hurst is a good route runner when he’s not playing backup. I am still hesitant to target the Ravens passing attack, but Andrews is Lamar’s favorite target with a 23% target share and ranked 1st amongst all TEs last year in Points per snap (0.47) and aDOT (10.6).
Favorite Leverage Options: Darren Waller (3.8% on DK, 3.6% on FD)/Mike Gesicki (2.4% on DK, 2.5% on FD/Jack Doyle (6.2% on DK, 4.4% on FD)/T.J. Hockenson (3.6% on DK, 4.6% on FD)/Irv Smith Jr. (2.1% on DK, 1.5% on FD) – Waller is by far the favorite target of Carr and averaged the most targets of any TE last year at 25.5% and like mentioned above, going against a Carolina defense that has lost anyone who was remotely good. If Doyle and Hockenson can stay healthy, they both don’t offer a massive ceiling like George Kittle/Travis Kelce/Zach Ertz, but they both average about 4-6 targets a game. Rivers has always loved targeting TEs, and Hockenson only played in 12 games last year, and mostly without Stafford, but still saw over 10% of the team targets and 10 RZ targets. Irv Smith Jr. I will say is a total punt, but he also saw 10+% of the team targets last year and that’s with Kyle Rudolph. I think Rudolph will continue to play more of a blocking role. Of note, Irv Smith actually ran a route on the exact same amount of snaps as George Kittle in 2019.
Final Thoughts and Ownership Fades
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and also don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. If you’re going to play Russ/CMC/Metcalf, that’s completely fine, but just don’t stack up your roster with other guys at 15-20% ownership. Week 1 this year should be especially volatile, and I expect several upsets so I think it’s an even better week than normal for GPP pivots and contrarian plays. Guys I’m most likely fading (GPPs) as of this writing (Friday morning, so things could change with late news on Sunday morning):
Antonio Gibson
DeSean Jackson
Marquise Brown
Lamar Jackson
Miles Sanders
Thanks for reading and I welcome any and all feedback on what you want to see out of this article!
