NFL Week 5 Ownership and Leverage Report
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Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate.
Slate Overview
Week 4 was an interesting one and a profitable, yet near MASSIVELY profitable (SMH Sean McVay not using Henderson after the first drive), for yours truly but definitely was full of some decent hits (Dalton Schultz at low ownership, James Robinson continued to see a ton of usage), and some big misses (Jared Goff did nothing, Golladay/Stafford started off hot then fizzled). I think it’s important to definitely find leverage when making tournament lineups as found last week but that doesn’t mean full fading a high Vegas total game, but rather trying to find guys that have the same game environment but are going overlooked as still a key part of the offense. Take last week, in which the Browns/Cowboys combined for over 80 points… Dak was an elite QB play and so was Amari, but there still was a ton of targets to go around to the likes of Lamb/Gallup (not so much in that game), Schultz and Zeke while the run back with Odell was certainly optimal after a 3 TD performance but you didn’t need to have Baker and other pieces of the Browns despite them scoring 49 points. Week 5 has yet again hit us with PPD games and possibly more to come so make sure to tune into Ben and my stream on Sunday with the most up to date information and possibly chalk/pivot spots as we get a clearer picture before lock.
Quarterbacks
In general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%.
As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament.
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Dak Prescott/Teddy Bridgewater/Patrick Mahomes– It’s surprising to see that the Giants are only allowing about 17 points on DK and 16 points on FD per game to QBs but make no mistake, this defense is still bad, it’s hurt, and perhaps more importantly, the Dallas is not stopping ANYBODY, so Dak’s 50-55 drop backs a game should remain semi-consistent. Dak is 8th in the league in points per drop back, has 3 straight 300+ yard games, and has one of the highest ceilings on the slate with how much they throw and his added rushing upside. It’s funny that it’s 2020 and Teddy Bridgewater is about to be one of the higher owned QBs, but it makes complete sense. The Falcons are worse than god awful on defense, allowing on average, 35.5 points on DK and 33.0 points on FD to QBs. Teddy gets to face the team that’s 2nd worst per DVOA against the pass and although known as a low aDOT passer, he still is averaging about 40 drop backs a game… and he’s cheap. Patrick Mahomes is really good. Not really sure we need analysis past that, but the Chiefs have an implied team total of almost 35 points, the Raiders aren’t stopping anyone, and I have Mahomes projected for the most TDs (Pass + Rush) of any QB on the slate.
Favorite Leverage Options: Kyler Murray (4.0% on DK, 5.5% on FD)/Matt Ryan (7.6% on DK, 7.6% on FD)/Ben Roethlisberger (2.1% on DK, 2.2% on FD) – Kyler was chalk for a few weeks in a row but now gets probably his best matchup of the season and he’s not going to be owned… interesting. The Jets defensive line is actually decent, but that’s where the positives stop. Their overall DVOA isn’t bad, but they rank 23rd against the pass and 28th against WR1s/32nd against WR2s… Kyler should be able to feed Hopkins/Kirk/Edmonds/Drake and whoever else all game and coming off 2 straight bad losses in a row, the Cardinals need to get back on track. With about 42 drop backs per game and immense rushing upside (20% of the Red Zone rushes for the team), this is a possible ceiling spot for Kyler. Here I go again with Matt Ryan… he sucked against the Packers; however, he’s facing a completely different team in the Panthers who have a weak defensive line that gets almost no pressure and Ryan is significantly better (as expected) when he has time to throw. Lastly, my favorite leverage QB on the slate is none other than Big Ben. He’s not going to be owned by anyone, but in 3 games he’s thrown for 7 TDs to 1 INT, averaged 39 drop backs per game, and should be comfortable in the pocket with the Steelers strong O-Line (5th in the NFL per Brandon Thorn). I don’t see Ben being slowed down by the Eagles.
Running Backs
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Mike Davis/Ezekiel Elliott/Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Kareem Hunt – Mike Davis is not CMC, but he’s pretty damn good and can play CMC’s pass catching role exceptionally well. Davis has 23 targets through 3 games, ranking 1st amongst RBs on the slate in team % of targets, and now has the Falcons who have given up an average of 30 points on DK and 26 points on FD to opposing RBs. He has 26 high value touches (HVT) on the season (Ben Gretch), good for 4th amongst RBs and he may be the highest owned on the slate, but he’s still too cheap and an elite play in all formats. Zeke keeps “underperforming” maybe compared to his expectations but has still seen 28 targets this season (most per RBs), 7 per game, has complete command of the rushing touches on the Cowboys, and has seen an obscene 37 HVTs through 4 games. He’s matchup independent but to add on, the Giants are 32nd against pass catching RBs on the season… I think we have a potential smash spot here. Clyde continues to see his snap share and target share increase per week, as he’s the clear bell cow back for the Chiefs and is seeing 4.3 targets per game. The Chiefs are a massive home favorite with the highest team total on the slate and the Raiders have given up a comical 38-40 points on AVERAGE to RBs this season… Clyde is a core play in all formats.
Favorite Leverage Options: Antonio Gibson (4.8% on DK, 3.0% on FD)/Miles Sanders (7.1% on DK, 8.2% on FD)/Myles Gaskin (5.8% on DK, 4.9% on FD)/Chase Edmonds (2.2% on DK, 2.1% on FD) – Antonio Gibson should certainly be a leverage play as the Football Team are big home dogs to the Rams; however, if Kyle Allen can just not make too many mistakes, Gibson should have ample opportunity to take advantage of a Rams defense that quietly only ranks 22nd per DVOA against pass catching RBs and 28th against the rush. Kyle Allen is a check down machine so Gibson should see an uptick from his 3 targets per game and if Washington’s O-Line can play halfway decent, Gibson is Top 15 among all RBs in avoided tackles (11). Miles Sanders ownership has seen so much fluctuation already with expected mega chalk week 1 until he sat, then enormous chalk against the Bengals in which he flopped, and now he’s back down to under 10% owned. While I do like a Steelers stack, I think Sanders is game script independent as he’s seen 6.3 targets per game and has played 78% of the snaps compared to Boston Scotts 25%. The Steelers defense is exceptional, but I’ll bet on the volume here and the fact that the entire Eagles roster is injured and there aren’t too many options left. I believe Gaskin has risen to the RB1 in Miami and despite them trailing early and often, he’s still playing 67% of the snaps, running routes on 54% of those snaps, and seeing 5+ targets per game. Gaskin ranks 4th among all RBs in the NFL in tackles avoided, with 15, and although this is far from a “smash spot” of any kind, he could see a lot of dump offs from Fitzpatrick and hit big value at 5% or so ownership. Lastly, Edmonds is merely a punt and probably not someone from a single entry/3 max, but he has 17 targets on the year, compared to Drake’s 5, has a 25% red zone rush percentage compared to Drake’s 17%, and although only playing half the snaps of Drake, he’s run a route on 63% of those snaps, compared to Drake’s 42%. Edmonds will not be owned and obviously has a very low of floor of a few points, but he could also get the hot hand or be more involved if the Cardinals get out to a big lead.
Note: I also like James Robinson A LOT, but he’s getting buzz and should be 10+% on both sites; also like David Johnson for the value but I expect him to be semi-popular as well
Wide Receivers
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Amari Cooper/Robby Anderson/Calvin Ridley/Diontae Johnson – Amari has the most targets of any WR on the slate, with 49 in total, or 12.3 a game, which includes 8 red zone targets and a health 8.2 yards per target. He will most likely be shadowed by Bradberry who’s actually had a pretty strong season, but I think Cooper is matchup proof and if the Cowboys D continues to struggle, he should continue to be peppered with targets. I will fully admit that I did not expect a strong season from Robby Anderson since he’s known so much as a deep threat and has a QB that is not known for throwing deep whatsoever. Anderson has seen 2 more targets through 4 games than DJ Moore, still has a strong yards per target of 11.1, and has the 5th highest yards per route run for WRs on the slate (2.86). Anderson plays slightly less snaps than Moore but has run a route on 68.4% compared to Moore’s 63.2% and against a horrific defense, could have an explosion game. Ridley shocked everyone, including myself, with a solid ZERO catches last week but let’s chalk that up to variance and being shadowed by Jaire Alexander. This week, Ridley gets to take on Donte Jackson, is likely to have little competition with Julio most likely missing the game and should see his 8.8 targets per game rise even higher. Ridley has 14 red zone targets on the year, 3 higher than the 2nd WR (Odell), and I expect him to be hammered with targets early and often. Lastly, Diontae Johnson is too cheap for his talent, as he’s average 7.7 targets through 3 games, he should be able to beat a washed up Darius Slay, and despite playing about 20% less snaps than his counterpart JuJu Smith-Schuster, they are running a route on the same % of plays, as Diontae Johnson has more air yards and a better WOPR (weighted opportunity) than JuJu… I love a Big Ben/Diontae stack in this game.
Favorite Leverage Options: DeAndre Hopkins (8.7% on DK, 13.0% on FD)/DJ Chark (7.5% on DK, 8.2% on FD)/Marquise Brown (5.4% on DK, 9.1% on FD)/Odell Beckham (5.8% on DK, 7.0% on FD)/Jamison Crowder (4.1% on DK, 3.8% on FD) – Maybe a bit cheap of me to call Hopkins “leverage” but I currently have him projected for under 10% on DK and that seems crazy to me based on his opponent. The Cardinals have underperformed the last 2 weeks, but Hopkins is still seeing 34% of his team’s targets, good for 11.5 per game. No matter what the game script, Hopkins is always Kyler’s first look and now against a very weak corner and a team that ranks 28th in DVOA versus WR1, I think this is a potential smash spot for Hopkins. DJ Chark doesn’t see commanding volume like that of Hopkins/Odell/Cooper, but he’s in the best matchup by far this year and has proven to be more than efficient with 5.3 targets per game. Chark ranks 10th in points per snap (0.34), 11th in points per touch (3.56) and is Top 25 in WRs on the slate in yards per route run (1.92). Houston ranks 23rd per DVOA against WR1, 30th against WR2, 30th against TEs, and 29th against the rush so it’s pretty safe to say they’re not stopping anyone, and further, opportunity is the most key metric in DFS and Chark plays the most snaps on his team at the WR position and is running a route on 67% of those snaps. Both Marquise Brown and Odell are players I like as a one off at low ownership as I’m not sure how viable a full Ravens stack is at this point in the season with how few plays they run and how many of the touches/fantasy points Lamar takes up and for Cleveland, they face the #1 DVOA ranked defense in the league. You wouldn’t know it by just looking at the game logs, but Brown has had 3 or 4 sure fire TDs that Lamar missed on and he ranks 5th among all WRs in WOPR, 4th in Air Yards, and he’s seeing 6.5 targets per game (26.5% of Raven’s targets). He’s also a boom or bust play but a ceiling game is coming and who better to do that against than the Bengals who generate little to no pressure, thus resulting in Lamar to have all day to throw. Odell is coming off of a 3 TD game yet no one wants to play him… maybe for good reason? He is against what has been a stellar Indy defense 4 weeks into the season but I always view Odell as one of the matchup proof WRs and to add on to that, I don’t really view Xavier Rhodes as the shut down corner he once was in Minnesota. Odell will see heavy volume despite the matchup, as he sees 7.5 targets a game to go along with a #1 rank in WOPR among WRs. Lastly, this play is pretty gross, but I’ll take a shot on Flacco maybe being able to not check down every play in a game that the Jets should be trailing. Jamison Crowder has only played 2 games this season, but in those games he saw a combined 21 targets and ranks 2nd in points per snap among WRs along with 3 red zone targets. The Cardinals are definitely not a good secondary and the stats back it up, as they rank 29th in DVOA versus WR1s and 25th against WR2s… Not sure who Flacco has to throw to other than Bell/Crowder/Herndon so I like Crowder to see a ton of targets with potential for huge value, especially on DK with full PPR points.
Tight Ends
Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: George Kittle/Evan Engram/Travis Kelce – George Kittle is something else… he’s only played 2 games but ranks 8th amongst TEs in targets and 5th in Targets per Route Run (0.28) in what is a small sample size. I’m not sure if Eric Rowe has a plan to stop Kittle, or if there is one, but Kittle is an elite play in all formats, especially if you can fit him in cash, as he’s the go-to guy for the 49ers and has played 98.5% of the snaps in his 2 games to go along with a route run on 57% of those snaps. Evan Engram really should be having a better year if we look at the numbers: has run the 6th most routes of all TEs, based on % of snaps (69.7%) and has played on 90% of the Giants snaps as a whole. I think things have to come together sooner rather than later as the Giants have faced a tough schedule thus far, with Engram seeing 29 combined targets (3rd most for TEs), or 7.3 per game. Daniel Jones should be throwing often as Dallas has one of the most high-powered offenses in the league and despite maybe being “over owned” by the public, I think the price and spot for Engram is great. Not much needs to be said about Kelce, he averages 8 targets a game, is one of the best TEs, if not the best, in the league and is facing a Raiders team that ranks 3rd to last in DVOA against TEs. According to PFF, he has by far the most advantageous matchup of all TEs this week and I think he could easily hit close to a ceiling game as long as the Raiders stay somewhat competitive.
Favorite Leverage Options: Darren Waller (6.8% on DK, 7.0% on FD)/Tyler Higbee (3.5% on DK, 2.9% on FD)/Eric Ebron (3.7% on DK, 2.7% on FD)/Darren Fells (<1% on DK, <1% on FD) – I really thought Waller would be a more talked about option this week as he’s the clear alpha on the Raiders team, seeing 39 combined targets through 4 games (9.8 per game), including 9 red zone targets, and against the Chiefs solid secondary, we would assume he would be Carr’s first look most plays. Waller ranks 4th in Targets per Route Run (0.28), plays 93% of the Raiders snaps, and I think is a great leverage option to run back with in Chiefs stacks. It’s always annoying relying on a Rams tight end because Sean McVay uses both and will feed one all game then the next game have him take a step back; however, Higbee has played 83% of the Rams snaps compared to Everett’s 43% and has run a combined 70 routes compared to Everett’s 42 through 4 weeks. Despite having a pretty solid defensive line, Washington ranks 2nd to last per DVOA against tight ends and even though Higbee doesn’t see an enormous volume of targets (4 per game), he does have 4 red zone targets and is very viable for a multi-TD game and I think he will be owned by virtually no one. Eric Ebron is very hit or miss and that should always be considered when playing him; however, Philly has given up an average of 22 DK points per game to Tight Ends, 17.9 on FD, and even though Pittsburgh has 2 Tight Ends, Ebron has played 72% of the snaps compared to 55% for Vance McDonald and run a route on 57% of those snaps to result in 4.7 targets per game and 4 red zone targets. To close it out, this is only a play if Jordan Akins is ruled out, but Darren Fells plays virtually the same amount of snaps as Akins yet runs less routes with Akins in the game. If Akins were to miss, Fells becomes the only TE on the field and should see 70-80% of the snaps; further, with most probably gravitating to Deshaun/Fuller/Cooks/David Johnson, Fells could easily pay off his price at less than 1% ownership with only a few catches with upside for a red zone TD.
Final Thoughts
Overall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s).
I think it always make sense to stack the popular games. This week those are ATL/CAR, HOU/JAX, KC/LV, and DAL/NYG, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what SHOULD happen but rather what COULD happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout. Not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just aren’t enough plays and touchdowns, so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week!
