Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Links to other content!
Week 8 Position by Position Breakdown
Ben’s Week 8 Breakdown! (Article)
QB
Josh Allen
Karma Position Rank: 1
DK Proj. OWN% 13.7%
FD Proj. OWN% 17.3%
Why? → Allen is the most expensive and should be the universal #1 for most this week as he’s facing a depleted Dolphins defense giving up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs and the most total points per game of anyone in the league. Allen is 9th on the slate in points per drop back (of QBs), is averaging 42 drop backs per game, and I have his ceiling as nearly 6 points higher than any other QB on the slate.
Jalen Hurts
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 14.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 18.7%
Why? → The Eagles are a bad team and I’m not sure if Hurts is good or bad in terms of real-life production but from a fantasy perspective, he’s still yet to score under 20 points in any full game he’s started last year and this year. Averaging 9-12 rush attempts per game, and around 30-40 rush yards, he possesses such a high floor with ceiling outcomes against a terrible Lions D that has given up the 10th most points to QBs this season and 5th most to RBs, which I think is relevant for someone with Hurts’ run tendencies.
Justin Herbert
Karma Position Rank: 5
DK Proj. OWN% 7.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.6%
Why? → The matchup isn’t as strong as the two QBs above, but Herbert is still not getting enough respect in terms of ownership in fantasy with how good he is and his ceiling potential. Herbert is averaging just under 45 drop backs per game, he has the 2nd highest Adj. Net Yards per Pass Attempt on the slate (behind Stafford), and after getting steam rolled last year by NE, losing 45-0, I think Herbert should be out to get some revenge! (Love a #revengegame)
Matt Ryan
Karma Position Rank: 9
DK Proj. OWN% 4.7%
FD Proj. OWN% 3.3%
Why? → Ryan drives me crazy most of the time, but we were on him last week and I’ll go back again this week as he is averaging 43 drop backs per game with his horrendous defense and I think with the perception still that the Panthers have a stout defense, his ownership will stay under 5-7%. He feels slightly too cheap given that he leads all QBs on the slate in pass attempts per game and carries a strong ceiling despite being the 9th highest priced on DK.
RB
Tier 1
Alvin Kamara
Karma Position Rank: 4
DK Proj. OWN% 10.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 21.6%
Why? → It was shocking to see the pOWN% on Kamara after everyone saw him shred the Seahawks defense on MNF catching 10 of 11 targets for 128 yards and a TD. Yes, the Bucs run defense is very strong, but if Jameis is going to be checking down to Kamara all game, I love the upside and if the ownership is depressed to the fears of recently-traded Ingram taking away snaps… I am not concerned. Could he steal some snaps throughout/at the goal line? Maybe, but on a full PPR site like DK, his floor is so high with 6-8 targets per game and over 80% of the RB opportunities (24.5 per game).
Darrell Henderson Jr.
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 19.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 21.1%
Why? → A total bust as chalk last week, the pass game and Stafford popped off, while Henderson had a middling performance. He is much too cheap for his role and ceiling at only 6500 with 3-5 targets per game and 72% of the RB opportunities. The Texans are stopping no one whatsoever and although Sony Michel mixes in, Henderson still sees 70% of the touches inside the 10 and 72% inside the 5-yard line.
D’Andre Swift
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 17.9%
FD Proj. OWN% 17.5%
Why? → On pace for an insane 100+ catches this year, I don’t see a need to fade Swift in nearly any game moving forward. Averaging over SEVEN (7!) High Value Touches (“HVTs”; per Ben Gretch) per game and 8 more total HVTs then the next highest RB on the slate (50 total), Swift has a very high floor and when used correctly (last week FINALLY), his ceiling is 30+. After a 60/40 or semi-even split to start the season, Swift has played around 75% of the snaps over the last 4 games compared to Jamaal Williams around 30%.
Tier 2
Chuba Hubbard
Karma Position Rank: 11
DK Proj. OWN% 11.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 14.6%
Why? → Crushed me last week in a game where the Panthers got smacked around, Hubbard still has the majority snap share of RBs on this team with CMC out and even though he had a middling performance, the usage is still strong with 3-5 targets per game, 12-15 rush attempts per game, and gets the Falcons defense that ranks 28th of 32 in Rush DVOA this season (per FootballOutsiders) and giving up the 9th most fantasy points per game to RBs.
Najee Harris
Karma Position Rank: 9
DK Proj. OWN% 10.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 5.5%
Why? → Cleveland is definitely more of a pass funnel, but Najee is getting such insane usage that similar to Swift, I want to play him near every week. Harris has averaged nearly 8 targets per game and has seen 80% or more of the RB snaps for the Steelers in 5 of 6 games so far this season. He has the highest overall RB opportunity share of all RBs on the slate, has the second most HVTs (42) of RBs on the slate, and the 5th most rush attempts per game.
Tier 3
Myles Gaskin
Karma Position Rank: 27
DK Proj. OWN% 2.9%
FD Proj. OWN% 10.9%
Why? → I feel blessed to get to write about Gaskin at least ONCE this year as he’s one of my favorites and has been underwhelming this year with a crowded backfield and terrible Dolphins team. Malcolm Brown is out and despite being part of a 2/3/4 headed monster through the first 7 games, he still has the 7th most HVTs this season of RBs on the slate (32), averaging 4.6 per game. I think there’s a lot of risk, obviously, and volatility with the backfield, but in 2 of the last 3 weeks he’s seen 65% of the Dolphins RB snaps.
Chalk I’m On → Kenneth Gainwell // Eli Mitchell
Chalk I’m Off → Cordarrelle Patterson // Leonard Fournette // Alex Collins // Joe Mixon
WR
Tier 1
Deebo Samuel
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 14.9%
FD Proj. OWN% 18.0%
Why? → Deebo is a damn stud and his QB sucks! Only the 6th highest priced, he’s my overall #2 ranked WR this week (behind Kupp obviously) with 9.7 targets per game, 35% of the team’s air yards, and 36% of the team’s red zone targets. Trailing only Cooper Kupp in team target share, I don’t see Samuel being as high owned as I have projected now due to the boring game, perceived strong Chicago defense, and poor QB play.
Chris Godwin
Karma Position Rank: 15
DK Proj. OWN% 16.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 18.1%
Why? → Godwin probably doesn’t carry the same ceiling as Mike Evans, as seen last week, but he still has a solidified part of the Bucs high-flying offense with 17% of the team targets and surprisingly 26% of the team’s red zone targets. Antonio Brown is expected to miss again and although WR/CB matchups can be overblown, Lattimore should be shadowing Evans most of the game and historically has held him in check, which makes me favor Godwin’s outlook at $600 cheaper.
Keenan Allen
Karma Position Rank: 12
DK Proj. OWN% 13.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 8.7%
Why? → I’m not sure what I’m missing with Allen being $1200 cheaper than Mike Williams, but Keenan is seeing 9.3 targets per game, 24% of the team targets, and 31% of the team’s red zone targets. Of all WRs on the slate, Keenan has the 9th highest target share and the game environment should be awesome with both the Chargers and Patriots running some of the faster offenses in the NFL this season.
Tier 2
Michael Pittman Jr.
Karma Position Rank: 8
DK Proj. OWN% 15.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.9%
Why? → I’m pretty sure Pittman is the most mispriced player on the slate at just 5300 as 1) Wentz has looked much better recently, 2) he has the best matchup in terms of fantasy points against with Tennessee yielding nearly 50 points a game to WRs this season, and 3) He is the alpha of the Colts with 6.7 targets per game, a 22% target share, a 33% air yards share, and 25% of the team’s red zone targets. Given all of that, I think he’s a smash play in all formats.
Tee Higgins
Karma Position Rank: 22
DK Proj. OWN% 15.0%
FD Proj. OWN% 13.0%
Why? → With the Bengals now being the “Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase show,” Higgins has stayed around his current price of 5200 on DK (6300 on FD) despite still seeing 8.6 targets per game, 25% of the team’s air yards, and 31% of the team’s red zone targets. Despite Chase being the alpha of this team, Higgins is running a route on just over 96% of Burrow’s drop backs (per PFF) while Chase is at 94% and Boyd at 93%. I love Higgins as part of a game stack and/or mini stack in what could be a chalk-ish stack of the Bengals offense.
Jakobi Meyers
Karma Position Rank: 24
DK Proj. OWN% 13.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 14.7%
Why? → It’s honestly amazing at this point that Meyers still doesn’t have a TD, even after the Pats put up 54 points last week, but nevertheless, his quest continues and he has maintained a 23% target share, good for 8.1 per game, and 28% of the team’s air yards. The matchup is tough, which may justify the price, but his usage and projected game script keeps him firmly in play as a possible cash option or strong GPP.
Tier 3
Corey Davis
Karma Position Rank: 35
DK Proj. OWN% 2.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 2.6%
Why? → Is Mike White really that much of a downgrade from Zach Wilson? I don’t think so. Davis is seeing 7 targets a game, 34% of the team’s air yards, and 27% of the team’s red zone targets which is great, yet the Jets are awful and have an embarrassing team total of 15.5 this week. His WR/CB matchup is difficult, but he does have spike weeks throughout the year and may be relied on all day against the Bengals elite offense. GPP only with the risk/matchup but should be 2-3% owned on each site.
Chalk I’m On → Cooper Kupp // Calvin Ridley // Stefon Diggs
Chalk I’m Off → DJ Moore // Brandin Cooks // Cole Beasley
TE
Kyle Pitts
Karma Position Rank: 1
DK Proj. OWN% 3.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 11.2%
Why? → Pitts is the most expensive TE on DK this week by $900 ($600 on FD) and it feels more than justified given that he ranks 5th of all TEs on the slate in Targets/Route (per PFF), 4th in target share, 1st in WOPR, and my highest ceiling of all TEs by several points. 7.2 targets per game, an aDOT of 11.3, and he should be low, low owned based on his price and the field’s propensity to pay down at TE.
Mike Gesicki
Karma Position Rank: 5
DK Proj. OWN% 4.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 4.2%
Why? → Play Gesicki every week. He is literally a WR that has a TE designation. Averaging 7 targets per game, 23% of the team’s air yards, 3rd in targets per route, and tied with Pitts at #1 in WOPR for TEs on the slate. I think with the perceived tough matchup with Buffalo will keep his ownership low, as it usually is, but he carries one of the higher ceilings of any TEs this week.
Noah Fant
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 4.7%
FD Proj. OWN% 9.2%
Why? → I feel like Fant is never really rostered too highly because of the Broncos struggling offense, but he’s getting 6-8 targets per game, 28% of the team’s red zone targets, and a great matchup with Washington, who is giving up the 2nd most total fantasy points per game this season. His usage could take a hit with Jeudy and possibly Albert O back in the lineup this week, but it should keep his ownership low which is worth the risk in GPPs given his potential ceiling.
Ricky Seals-Jones
Karma Position Rank: 10
DK Proj. OWN% 11.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.1%
Why? → Over the last 3 weeks, with Logan Thomas on IR, RSJ has finished as the PPR TE14, TE6, and TE9 and has played 99%/100%/100% of the snaps the last 3 weeks. He is a semi-WR in a TE designation, similar to Gesicki, and is getting 3-5 targets per game, a massive 38% of the team’s red zone targets, and at only 3800 on DK (5400 on FD), he doesn’t need to score 30 points to hit major value/ceiling.
Stacks
Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, “the field” (large field GPPs) still don’t stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team’s WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time.
The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team’s QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team’s Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack’s projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally “OWN% Value”, which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside.
DraftKings Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)
FanDuel Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)
