Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Links to other content!
Week 4 Position by Position Breakdown
Ben’s Week 4 Breakdown! (Article) —- COMING SOON!
QB
Patrick Mahomes
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 8.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 13.0%
What I Like → At this point, explaining what I or anyone “likes” about Mahomes is pretty obvious… he carries a massive ceiling, he is Top 10 in Points per Drop Back (per PFF) and Intended Air Yards/Attempt (“IAY/PA”) and is facing a Philly team that has a strong defensive line, but is dealing with several injuries and looked quite vulnerable last week against the Cowboys offense. Mahomes never goes “overlooked” but as the most expensive QB on the slate, his ownership could be lower than optimal as many choose the savings and equally strong options in Josh Allen/Kyler Murray/Matt Stafford.
What I Worry About → Not much to worry about per say as Mahomes is a stud, but it is worth noting that this is the first time the Chiefs have had a sub .500 record since 2015 and it’s unknown if Tyreek is slightly hurt and more importantly if the Chiefs very poor offensive line can hold up against the Eagles as Mahomes has already faced 44 pressures through 3 games, which is the 7th most of QBs on the main slate.
Aaron Rodgers
Karma Position Rank: 12
DK Proj. OWN% 2.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 2.8%
What I Like → Wider range of outcomes than QBs like those mentioned above based on matchup/pace/etc but Rodgers will be basically unowned on both sites and is facing a Steelers team that has looked out of sorts and has given up 24 and 26 points in their last 2 games against a hot Raiders team and what many consider a mediocre Bengals team. The best thing about Rodgers is that we know to pair him with Adams, who should get around 40% of the targets and it’s more than viable to double stack or even pair Rodgers with Aaron Jones, as the Steelers have given up the 3rd most receiving yards, on average, to RBs this season.
What I Worry About → It’s possible that the Packers control this game and slow it down, as they rank 28th of 32 in pace per play, and while the Steelers defense is dominant, they are still around average and could limit the opportunities Rodgers has to reach his ceiling. With Rodgers only averaging about 32 drop backs per game, he will need to be ultra-efficient.
Dak Prescott
Karma Position Rank: 6
DK Proj. OWN% 7.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.8%
What I Like → LOVE this spot for Dak after the Cowboys have gone run heavy 2 games in a row and they’re now facing the #1 rated defense in the league (per FootballOutsiders), per DVOA. The Panthers haven’t exactly played a gauntlet of a schedule, so while I believe they’re better than we expected, and have the #1 ranked pass DVOA rank, they are also 3rd to last in WR1 DVOA and I think guys like Dak/Lamb/Cooper are in a great spot nonetheless. For what it’s worth, the QBs the Panthers have faced thus far are Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Davis Mills, all of whom I would classify as well below Dak’s talent level.
What I Worry About → The worries here are 1) that the Panthers defensive is legit and the Cowboys struggle to move the ball through the air and 2) that scenario one happens and/or the Cowboys go run heavy as they have the last 2 weeks where Dak went from 62 drop backs in week 1 to a combined 62 drop backs in Weeks 2 and 3.
RB
Tier 1
Derrick Henry
Karma Position Rank: 1
DK Proj. OWN% 19.0%
FD Proj. OWN% 18.0%
What I Like → What needs to be said here? Henry is facing a lifeless Jets team that has given up an average of 30.8 DK Points (26.9 FD Points) on average this season, the Titans are without AJ Brown and possibly Julio Jones, and Henry has even started to get targets! Derrick Henry has 285 yards after contact this season… the next closest on this slate is Nick Chubb… who has 180. We complete the “what I like” section with the following: Henry is averaging 27 attempts per game, 4.3 targets per game, 31 total opportunities per game, and is viable to break the slate come early Sunday afternoon.
What I Worry About → The only worry here is the Jets randomly put it together and make the game competitive, in turn forcing more throws by Tannehill and reducing Henry’s role. With his newfound receiving role, the floor is even higher for Henry than year’s past, but in a game where the Titans are trailing, his touch% does drop off quite a bit.
Alvin Kamara
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 15.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 21.6%
What I Like → Although it hasn’t been as pronounced as the last 2 years, with his historical receiving role, Kamara still probably (slightly) carries the highest ceiling of RBs on the slate. Kamara has seen 23% of the Saints targets through 3 games and the Giants have already yielded 80+ yards receiving to JD McKissic and Cordelle Patterson in 2 of their 3 games this season. Going further, the Giants have given up total yards of 159, 166, and 172 to the 3 backfields they’ve faced, and I think it’s safe to say the quality of Kamara is a step up from the Broncos/WAS Football Team/Falcons.
What I Worry About → The main concern is that the game gets out of hand with the Saints smashing them and Tony Jones gets more work, as he did in the week 1 blowout of the Packers. Further, while Kamara still remains heavily involved, Jameis doesn’t check down nearly as often as Drew Brees did and as such, Kamara has seen slightly less RZ involvement and less than his usual average of High-Value Touches (HVTs) through 3 games.
Najee Harris
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 13.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.0%
What I Like → Nineteen (19!!!!) targets last week for Najee Harris as the Steelers looked lost and got stomped by the Bengals. Now, Diontae Johnson is set to miss, JuJu is banged up, and I don’t think Big Ben’s arm is going to suddenly look spry. Harris leads all RBs on this slate in HVTs per game, with 7.7, is averaging 9 targets per game, is playing 95%+ of the Steelers snaps, and also leads all NFL RBs in missed tackles forced (after a reception) with 13. Harris has done all this on top of scoring only 1 TD all season, putting him at 2nd on the slate for positive regression in terms of Expected Fantasy Points (XFP) compared to his actual PPR points this season.
What I Worry About → The concern(s) here are not at all on Najee but on Big Ben who is getting him the check downs but is so bad that the offense isn’t competitive and we could start to see Harris’ snap/touch share get reduced if the Steelers keep getting wrecked. If the Steelers get down early, I don’t see a scenario where Harris is scripted out, but there could be less efficiency of Ben is forced to chuck it for 3 quarters of the game.
D’Andre Swift
Karma Position Rank: 8
DK Proj. OWN% 9.9%
FD Proj. OWN% 3.8%
What I Like → It’s such a shame that Swift doesn’t have the lion’s share of the Lions RB touches because he is so damn good. Swift is averaging 7.7 targets game, 7.6 HVTs per game, and even though Swift only has 56% of the RB touches this year, he is still the 10th ranked RB on the slate in terms of opportunity share. The Bears defense hasn’t looked like their typical shutdown, giving up 22.2 DK points on average through 3 games (20.3 FD Points) and facing an offense that is passing to their RBs at a 33% clip (highest in the NFL), even with the split backfield there is massive upside with Swift this week.
What I Worry About → The downside is that the Lions are still giving Williams 40% of the snaps, a little under 14 touches per game, and Williams is more likely to get the goal line carries. It’s hard to see Swift at this point getting “game scripted out,” but with the usage still nearly a 50/50 split in terms of snaps, there’s still a chance Swift gets points leeched by Williams, as Williams is averaging 5.3 HVTs per game himself.
Tier 2
Aaron Jones
Karma Position Rank: 4
DK Proj. OWN% 5.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 12.0%
What I Like → Not a slam dunk matchup, which means Jones will go under owned, as he typically does on full main slates; however, even with AJ Dillon getting usage, Jones is averaging 5.3 HVTs per game (5th on the slate), 11% of the team targets, and 17 opportunities per game. What I like the most about Jones is at his elevated price near Kamara/Cook and more expensive than Chubb/Najee, he will be tremendous leverage with an equally high ceiling to those priced around him.
What I Worry About → Biggest concern here is the matchup, as most years the Steelers have a strong defense against RBs and over their last 5 seasons, have only relinquished 20+ fantasy points to RBs less than 5 times. Further, if the Steelers do look competent, the touches for Jones will drop way down as Rodgers just locks in on Adams and torch whoever is unlucky to cover him the whole game.
Antonio Gibson
Karma Position Rank: 7
DK Proj. OWN% 9.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 9.3%
What I Like → This Atlanta defense is terrible, as expected, and despite Ron Rivera’s insistence on using JD McKissic frequently and in 2-minute drills (no idea why), Gibson still leads the backfield with a 62% snap share while garnering 18 opportunities per game. Even getting less snaps/opportunities than he should, Gibson is still efficient and can post a ton of points despite it all, as shown by his 73-yard catch and run in week 3.
What I Worry About → The concern starts and ends with McKissic who still leeches a lot of targets combined with the fact that Gibson has only seen 6% of the team’s RZ rushes this year and 0% of the carries inside the 5. On a TD heavier site like FD, Gibson is less appealing, but in full PPR he’s more attractive despite the consistent presence of McKissic that keeps Gibson’s ceiling from other top RBs on the slate.
David Montgomery
Karma Position Rank: 5
DK Proj. OWN% 13.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.0%
What I Like → It remains to be seen what changes if Fields stays the starter in Chicago, but thus far Montgomery has seen great usage with one of the better floors of RBs on the slate. Montgomery is averaging the same yards per attempt (rushing) as Derrick Henry (4.41), is seeing 18 opportunities per game, and is facing a Lions D that has given up nearly 28 DK points on average to the position so far this season (25.4 FD Points).
What I Worry About → The concerns about Montgomery are 1) he could be the chalky option, which is fine for cash but would make me reconsider in large field GPPs and 2) the Bears horrendous O-Line combined with their slow pace of play severely caps Montgomery’s opportunities and ceiling.
Tier 3
Jonathan Taylor
Karma Position Rank: 6
DK Proj. OWN% 7.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 13.3%
What I Like → Taylor is in the Tier 3 section because the presence of Nyheim Hines taking away targets/snaps through the first 3 games makes him much less of a smash than those at similar price points. What Taylor has working for him though is that the Colts love to run the ball, they’re facing a Miami defense that is giving up nearly 35 points a game to RBs (2nd most in the league) and just got shredded by Peyton Barber. Despite a semi-split backfield, Taylor still ranks Top 5 of RBs on the slate in HVTs per game (5.3), ranks 6th among the RBs in positive regression candidates (XFP vs. actual pts this season), and has been an above average RB despite not recording a TD yet this season.
What I Worry About → It wasn’t great to see, but perhaps made sense given they were trailing, that Taylor saw only 48% of the snaps in Week 3, compared to Hines’ 56% but it is encouraging to see Taylor getting more HVTs, more opportunities as a whole, and nearly triple the rush attempts per game compared to Hines.
WR
Tier 1
Tyreek Hill
Karma Position Rank: 7
DK Proj. OWN% 14.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 19.8%
What I Like → Despite 2 down games (for him), Hill remains a slate-breaking target each and every week. Being overshadowed by Kelce thus far in terms of fantasy points, Hill and Kelce have the same amount of targets on the year (26), good for an average of 8.7 per game. As mentioned above in the Mahomes section, the Eagles are hurting with injuries to their defensive line and secondary and while the Eagles have limited deep throw success rates, I don’t see either Maddox or Nelson from the Eagles keeping up with Hill.
What I Worry About → I don’t see any “concerns” per say with Hill other than that it’s extremely difficult to stack the main 3 Chiefs (Mahomes/Hill/Kelce) and while you’re not “guessing,” we’ve seen each of Hill or Kelce heavily targeted some games while the other doesn’t see near the volume. Further, if the Eagles stick to trying to limit the downfield/explosive targets, it could turn into a 10+ target Kelce game with Hill not seeing as many breakaway chances.
Davante Adams
Karma Position Rank: 1
DK Proj. OWN% 17.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 20.4%
What I Like → Seeing 43% of his team’s air yards, 11.3 targets per game, and the highest targets per route (0.38) of all WRs on the slate, I feel pretty good about recommending Adams as a top play. Let’s add in that he has the highest target share of WRs on the slate, the 2nd highest Weighted Opportunity Rating (“WOPR”) of WRs, and my highest calculated ceiling, let’s just move on.
What I Worry About → Concerns? I guess a concern would be that the Packers get up by a lot and Adams doesn’t play full snaps the whole game but other than that… I don’t think James Pierre or old man Joe Haden can stick with Adams and is 3.43 Yards/Route Run (per PFF).
Justin Jefferson
Karma Position Rank: 9
DK Proj. OWN% 7.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.4%
What I Like → The only thing keeping Jefferson from being even higher ranked is that apparently Thielen catches a TD on just about every single pass from Cousins; however, Jefferson has a 26% target share compared to Thielen’s 22%, a 46% air yards share compared to Thielen’s 25%, which equates to 9.7 targets per game. I don’t like to overrate WR/CB matchups, but with the injury to Greg Newsome, Jefferson should be lineup a majority of the game with Denzel Ward, who has not looked strong to start the season.
What I Worry About → My worries lie with the Vikings O-line as the Browns present a strong pass rush/defensive line and with the deep threat he is, Jefferson could have less high aDOT opportunities if Cousins doesn’t have time to get him the ball. Further, the aforementioned Thielen seems to be getting an absurd share of the TDs which does limit Jefferson slightly if he’s getting the targets/deep shots but not finishing the deal with a TD.
CeeDee Lamb
Karma Position Rank: 11
DK Proj. OWN% 10.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 10.3%
What I Like → With Jaycee Horn on the IR, I’m not sure Donte Jackson will have much success containing Lamb, who has cemented himself as the WR1 in Dallas (at least for now). Despite only 3 targets last week, Lamb is still averaging 9 targets per game, 24.8% of the team targets and 36% air yards share. Quietly, Lamb is seeing 26% of the team’s RZ targets and despite running 14 less routes (total) than Cooper and a slightly lower routes run % (per PFF), he holds the edge in Targets/Route along with a higher Yards/Route Run (2.39 vs. Cooper’s 1.59; PFF).
What I Worry About → The concern for Lamb is similar to what we have with Dak in that if the Cowboys go run heavy, like last week, he could see fewer than 5 targets. Further, with Cooper still a very strong WR himself, Lamb doesn’t have the usage of a Tyreek Hill/Davante Adams.
Tier 2
Calvin Ridley
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 9.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 14.1%
What I Like → I think we can all agree that Ridley deserves better and Matt Ryan sucks. Anyway, Ridley is one of 4 WRs so far with over a 40% air yards share (51%) and is facing a Washington Football Team that has given up the 2nd most points on average to WRs thus far. Despite a lack of dominance like we all expected, Ridley is still garnering 9.7 targets per game, is seeing 33% of the RZ targets, and is now priced to a very appealing $7k on DraftKings (9th highest priced), while he’s the 13th highest priced on FanDuel.
What I Worry About → The worry with Ridley is that Matt Ryan sucks ass and is not getting him the ball effectively or enough. Due to Ryan, Ridley does have a lower ceiling than the other top tier WRs and with the ball being spread seemingly to everyone, including Patterson/9 backup TEs/Mike Davis and others, the air yards share is tremendous, but the target share is not as concentrated as those that I like in “Tier 1.”
Terry McLaurin
Karma Position Rank: 10
DK Proj. OWN% 6.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 9.1%
What I Like → If we just look at last week where McLaurin only went for 4 catches/62 yards, it is definitely worth noting that he was being shadowed by Tre’Davious White (probably a Top 3 or better CB in the league). This week he gets the horrendous ATL pass defense who rank 2nd to last in WR1 DVOA (FootballOutsiders) and 5th to last in Pass DVOA. I think Heinicke is better than most think (above average) and should continue to build on McLaurin’s 33% air yards share and 28.4% target share.
What I Worry About → The worry I have is if this game is competitive enough and if Heinicke is in fact good enough to feed McLaurin WR1 targets, and catchable targets, at that. Further, despite a fine enough 20% rz target share, with Logan Thomas having played 100% of the snaps thus far for WFT, there’s a chance that RZ and Endzone targets to him over McLaurin.
DJ Moore
Karma Position Rank: 4
DK Proj. OWN% 15.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 14.6%
What I Like → DJ Moore has looked DOMINANT this season, earning a 31% target share (6th highest among all WRs) and a 41% air yards share, good for 10.3 targets per game. The Cowboys defense has looked solid against the run this year, but are still susceptible through the air, giving up nearly 8 more DK points and 5.1 FD points more than league average through the first 3 weeks. Moore will have a tougher matchup when he’s lined up with the stud Trevon Diggs but should have plenty of routes away from him to continue his dominance.
What I Worry About → The worry here is that Darnold begins to spread the ball more as well as the aforementioned Trevon Diggs covering Moore for most of the game. For what it’s worth, Dallas is the #1 ranked defense, per DVOA, against WR1s this year.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Karma Position Rank: 12
DK Proj. OWN% 7.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.9%
What I Like → Odell looked great last week in his return from injury and now gets a matchup with the Vikings, who are dead last in WR1 DVOA and have given up nearly 12 DK Points and nearly 10 FD Points more than the league average through 3 weeks. Odell should see a lot of dusty ass Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland, who have combined to allow 28 of 34 targets to be caught, and Odell looked great in Week 3, getting 9 targets, running a route on 97% of Baker’s drop backs (PFF) and 49% of the air yards.
What I Worry About → The worry is that the Browns get a lead and go back to their slow play/more run heavy style of play which will in turn limit Odell. Further, with a dominant duo in Chubb/Hunt, the RZ targets aren’t as prominent as other top tier WRs.
Tier 3
Chase Claypool
Karma Position Rank: 27
DK Proj. OWN% 2.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.9%
What I Like → With Diontae Johnson set to miss and JuJu banged up, it could be the Claypool/Najee harris show against the Packers. With their normal 3 WRs and Najee, Claypool has 24 targets over the last 2 weeks and could jump to well above 10 against an average packers pass D. Claypool has 9.3 targets per game, a 22% target share, and 41% air yards share through the first 3 games.
What I Worry About → The worry is a few things here, 1) Big Ben is so bad that he’ll continue to miss throws to Claypool (like he missed him for a TD last week), 2) Claypool gets the Jaire Alexander treatment for a majority of the snaps (Jaire doesn’t shadow much anymore but is still very much a shutdown corner), and 3) the Steelers try to rely more on low aDOT throws and Najee Harris usage for much of the game.
Robby Anderson
Karma Position Rank: 32
DK Proj. OWN% 7.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.6%
What I Like → Anderson has always been a high ceiling/low floor WR in terms of fantasy but that’s even more pronounced this year. What I like to see is that he’s now dirt cheap across DK/FD, he has a 24% air yards share, and is still running a route on 94% of Darnold’s drop backs (PFF). If Moore does in fact see a lot of Trevon Diggs, that could open the door for more deep shots/separation for Anderson and is 18.4 aDOT.
What I Worry About → The concerns are obvious as through 3 games, Anderson has only seen 3.3 targets per game, 10.8% of the team’s targets, and has been superseded slightly by rookie Terrace Marshall, who has seen 4.7 targets per game and a 13.7% target share. Anderson is GPP leverage only but he should be low owned in a game that could put up a ton of points if Dallas exploits the Panthers pass defense.
Christian Kirk
Karma Position Rank: 28
DK Proj. OWN% 2.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 1.4%
What I Like → Despite most of the talk about the Cardinals focused on Kyler and Hopkins, Kirk has the 7th best Yards/Route Run (PFF) of all WRs this season (3.03) and is second on the team in total targets (17) behind, shockingly, A.J. Green, who has 18. Further, while a lot of talk has been about the speedy rookie Moore (who I also like), Kirk has run a route on 95% of Kyler’s drop backs, is seeing 5.7 targets per game and 32% of the air yards share.
What I Worry About → The concern here is that while Hopkins has been the alpha of last year, he will always have a solid floor of targets (usually) and Moore, despite not running nearly as many routes as Kirk/Hopkins, or playing as many snaps, is the ultimate deep threat that Kyler has looked to thus far in 2021. I don’t think Kirk is a “smash” play but more a great play as part of a highly targeted DFS game and game stack but with big upside and a tiny ownership and huge savings from the likes of Hopkins.
TE
Travis Kelce
Karma Position Rank: 1
DK Proj. OWN% 12.7%
FD Proj. OWN% 20.8%
What I Like → Similar to Adams, what really needs to be said about Kelce. He’s far and away the best TE in the league, probably a Top 3 or Top 5 overall receiver in the league, is coming off a game where he saw 31% of the targets and has the highest Targets/Route (0.28) of all TEs on the slate this season.
What I Worry About → Worry? The only worry I can think of is the same situation as Tyreek where the targets get concentrated on the big name with worse coverage. Further, with Kelce, despite him dominating just about every matchup he’s in, at such an elevated price tag, he really does have to perform at above average/75th percentile outcomes to pay off his price tag and be an “optimal” TE on your team.
Noah Fant
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 6.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 5.4%
What I Like → Fant is the clear alpha TE in Denver and with Jeudy on IR and now Hamler out for the season, he could see an even bigger target share than his current 5.7 targets per game/18.3% target share. Albeit against 2 elite TEs, the Ravens have been shredded by the position this year, giving up 22.6 DK points on average (17.0 FD points) while limiting the WR position to an extent. Among TEs on the slate, Fant ranks 6th in Targets per Route (0.22), 4th in Target Share and has a Top 5 ceiling in my projections.
What I Worry About → The biggest worry with Fant is the presence of the Broncos second TE, Albert O, who doesn’t see nearly the same volume or snaps that Fant does but has an equal RZ target share (20%) and who could be used more with 2 of the Broncos 3 WRs on IR. I still love Fant given he has the 7th highest snap % of all TEs but with less RZ usage and combo of the Ravens ranking dead last in pace of place and Broncos 8th to last could limit opportunities.
Kyle Pitts
Karma Position Rank: 6
DK Proj. OWN% 4.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 5.2%
What I Like → Not sure if Pitts pissed someone off or what but he didn’t see a target last week until the 4th quarter… SMH. Nevertheless, despite his horrendous usage thus far, he still has 5.7 targets per game, 25% of the team’s air yards, and SHOULD be seeing the most targets by far along with Ridley. He hasn’t been what everyone expected yet, but he still carries a massive ceiling, ranks 7th amongst TEs on the slate in WOPR and is facing an exploitable WAS defense.
What I Worry About → My worry about Pitts is that ATL doesn’t know what in the hell they’re doing as they continue to give targets to all the TEs that are not named Kyle Pitts. In turn, the other big concern is that maybe Ryan just can’t get Pitts the ball as Pitts’ Targets/Route is only 0.14, good for 24th among TEs on the slate… let’s fix this Atlanta.
Evan Engram
Karma Position Rank: 23
DK Proj. OWN% 6.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 2.4%
What I Like → Maybe not the sexiest option, but the Giants just lost Darius Slayton and possibly Sterling Shepard due to injury and I would like to believe that despite Engram not being close to what he once was, the ball has to go SOMEWHERE that isn’t Saquon. In his return from injury last week Engram saw 6 targets, ran a route on 94% of Jones’ drop backs, and could see an uptick from his 56% snap share in Week 3 if those skill players are forced to miss.
What I Worry About → I worry a lot about the fact that Engram isn’t very good anymore, the Giants aren’t very good, and that the Giants will most likely continue to operate in 3 TE sets if 2 of their WRs miss. While the Giants are around average in pace of play, the Saints operate one of the slower offenses in the league and have one of the better all-around defenses thus far this season. The Saints are the 4th team per DVOA against TEs and have only yielded 8.6 DK Points and 6.5 FD Points, on average, to the position in 2021.
Stacks
Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, “the field” (large field GPPs) still don’t stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team’s WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time.
The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team’s QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team’s Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack’s projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally “OWN% Value”, which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside.
DraftKings Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)
FanDuel Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)
