Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Links to other content!
NFL Game Theory >>> Coming Soon
NFL Position-by-Position >>> Coming Soon
Ben’s Week 13 Breakdown! (Article) >>> Coming Soon
QB
Patrick Mahomes
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 4.9%
FD Proj. OWN% 11.6%
Why? → It’s definitely surprising to me to see Mahomes’ pOWN% on this Thursday mid-morning as there is setting up to be a ton of cheap value options at WR and Mahomes carries the highest ceiling (per my projections) of any QB on the slate. Over his last 5 games vs. the Raiders, Mahomes has thrown for 340+ yards twice, over 400 yards twice, and less than 200 yards in the other… 14 TDs/2 INTs/approx. 1500 yards and the Raiders are tied for 3rd in most passing TDs allowed this season (22). The Raiders have no pass rush (KC OL vs. LV DL is 3rd best this week in terms of adjusted line yards (per FootballOutsiders)) and at this point I’m not sure why I need to go on about why Patrick Mahomes is a good play.
Dak Prescott
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 5.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 4.5%
Why? → All of a sudden a pretty significant game for division seeding, Dak will go into WAS with a 7.1 adj. net yards/attempt, averaging 41 drop backs per game, and the best matchup of the week in terms of QB points allowed (WAS allowing 24 fantasy points on average to QBs). One of only 2 teams (ATL the other) allowing over 2 pass TDs per game (on average), Dak should go to the air early and often as the WFT has a quietly decent rush defense but will have no answer for CeeDee God/Gallup/Amari if healthy and while Dak in general can be an up and down option, he carries massive upside as the signal-caller of a top offense in the NFL.
Justin Herbert
Karma Position Rank: 4
DK Proj. OWN% 9.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 9.6%
Why? → The only teams seeing more pass attempts against them than the Giants are the Bucs (39.8 per game/Giants 39.1) and even in a week where he’ll be missing most likely Mike Williams, and potentially Keenan Allen, Herbert still carries a strong ceiling. Coming into this week, Herbert has 2+ TDs in 5 of his last 6 games, has attempted no less than 34 passes in any game this season, and should be in a surprisingly fast game environment with the Giants ranking 10th in Situation-Neutral pace and the Chargers 6th.
Cam Newton
Karma Position Rank: 5
DK Proj. OWN% 12.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 8.0%
Why? → This certainly doesn’t feel good, but I don’t have a ton of interest in a chalky (and injured) Taysom Hill and despite looking horrendous in his last 2 start weeks ago (going a smooth 5 for 21 for 92 pass yards and 2 INTs, and then got pulled), Newton still carries a strong floor with his legs as he turned in 8.2 DK points. Is that a good score? Absolutely not; however, we have to assume that’s about as bad as it’ll get (hopefully?), and the Falcons can stop no one at any position, giving up the 3rd/6th/8th most at QB/RB/WR, respectively. With CMC now out for the season, I could see more Cam rush attempts, a lot of RZ/Goal line touches, and at his price he doesn’t need to put up 30+ to be a smash value.
RB
Tier 1
Josh Jacobs
Karma Position Rank: 6
DK Proj. OWN% 22.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 20.1%
Why? → In general, I am a Josh Jacobs hater and I think he sucks. Am I wrong? Most likely. Nevertheless, what doesn’t suck is that Jacobs has the 4th most High-Value Touches (“HVTs” per Ben Gretch) this season of RBs on the slate, is seeing over 50% of the touches inside the 10 and inside the 5, and he’s seen 25 targets over his last 4 games. As a bonus, when we look at the matchup against the Chiefs run D, they have given up the most rush yards per game of any team this season (by a lot; 155.2 per game!) as well as 7-9 targets on average to RBs. Jacobs has seen around 15-17 touches per game over the full season, 18-20 over the last 4 games, Jalen Richard and Kenyan Drake are out (pass catching RBs), and even though I’ve never been a huge fan, we have to remove our biases if the play is staring us in the face.
Leonard Fournette
Karma Position Rank: 5
DK Proj. OWN% 21.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 25.2%
Why? → Finally it appears people have caught onto Fournette being the clear RB1 with huge upside despite being in the ultra-pass-heavy Bucs offense; however, he is still priced fairly as the 5th most expensive RB on each site. Fournette has seen targets of 8/8/6/9 over his last 4 games and now has the MOST HVTs of any RB on the slate this season (81 total!!!!) to go along with 64% of the Bucs RZ rushing and 67% of their inside the 5 carries. Is the Bills defense good? Yes. Has the Bills defense given up 222 and 264 yards rushing in 2 of their last 3 games? Yes. While sporting a good defense overall, they’ve still surrendered 107 rush yards per game this season and even though not an “elite” matchup, I’ll bet on the volume with Lenny.
Tier 2
Saquon Barkley
Karma Position Rank: 10
DK Proj. OWN% 18.0%
FD Proj. OWN% 10.6%
Why? → It’s unfortunate that I certainly won’t be the only one interested in Barkley because the matchup/stats/opportunities rate out superbly; however, it can’t be forgotten that this is still the Giants. The Chargers have been shredded by the run all season, giving up the 3rd most rush yards per game, the 3rd most total rushing TDs, and the 7th most fantasy points per game to the position over the full season. Over his last 4 (full) healthy games, Barkley has seen 13-15 rush attempts per game, 5-7 targets per game, and his team is rolling out their 3rd string QB this week with zero WRs fully healthy. The touches should be there and while it scares me that Barkley could get steamed up, not to mention his injury-plagued season, I still love the upside and projected touches we’re getting at a value price.
Eli Mitchell
Karma Position Rank: 4
DK Proj. OWN% 20.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 22.4%
Why? → Over his last 3 games, Mitchell has averaged 25.3 rush attempts, seen a total of 9 targets, and seems to be the focal point of the SF offense, who also passes at the 3rd lowest rate in the NFL (only 51% of the time). The Cincy defense isn’t awful, ranking 9th in EPA/Rush (on defense), but assuming Samuel is still out, I will take the big bet on volume over matchup. Mitchell carries the highest opportunity share of any RB on the slate and despite a very minimal pass game role, his volume combined with strong Yards after Contact (5th most YCO in the league) makes him a tremendous play.
Tier 3
Cordarrelle Patterson
Karma Position Rank: 13
DK Proj. OWN% 13.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 10.8%
Why? → When I went through to make my initial player pool this week, in my notes I wrote about Patterson “only good player on the team,” and while that’s a “joke,” is it…? The Falcons suck, Matt Ryan is dusty, but Patterson is still out there being a grown-ass man. Patterson has seen at least 2 targets in every game this season, 5+ targets in 8 games, and while the matchup isn’t great by any means, he’s shown to be so explosive, especially in the receiving game, that I love him as a leverage option around what should be chalky options like Fournette/Mitchell/Jacobs/Saquon.
Devonta Freeman
Karma Position Rank: 22
DK Proj. OWN% 3.9%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.0%
Why? → This one will probably make me look dumb, but Freeman has the 8th most touches per game over the last 4 games of RBs on the slate (18 per game) and even though Lamar is the clear lead “RB” on this team, Freeman has seen 10+ rush attempts in 5 straight games as well as 4-6 targets per game in that same span. I can’t believe it’s Week 14 of the 2021 season and I like Devonta “King of Dust” Freeman, but I don’t see him getting any ownership and although they’re definitely an above-average defense, the Browns have given up 115+ rush yards in 4 of their last 5 games and the Ravens have the 2nd most rush attempts this season of any team in the league (trailing only Philly, who’s played 1 more game).
Chalk I’m On → Austin Ekeler // Antonio Gibson // Javonte Williams
Chalk I’m Off → Alvin Kamara // Joe Mixon // Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if he gets chalky)
WR
Tier 1
Tyreek (TyScum) Hill
Karma Position Rank: 1
DK Proj. OWN% 14.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 20.0%
Why? → It’s pretty amazing that TyScum is has the 4th most WR PPR points thus far this season, yet has not gone for 100+ receiving since Week 4. After last week’s bust of 2 catches for 22 yards in an ugly game, Scum saw less than 7 targets for the first time since Week 3 and saw single-digit targets for the 4th time in 13 weeks. All of this is to say… we should be locking and loading Hill every week, especially if he’s not going to be mega-chalk, as he is seeing a 36% air yards share, 10.4 targets per game, 26% of the RZ targets, a aDOT of 10+, and volume that gives him 35-40+ point ceiling games no matter the matchup.
DK Metcalf
Karma Position Rank: 9
DK Proj. OWN% 13.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 12.5%
Why? → The Texans can’t stop anyone, or anything, but they REALLY can’t stop the deep ball, ranking 2nd to last in explosive pass plays allowed (per Ian Hartiz of PFF) and even if they had competent CBs, which they don’t, I’m not sure who is going to stop Metcalf. Despite the horrific coaching by Pete Carroll on a weekly basis, Metcalf has maintained consistent volume with 6+ targets in 4 of his last 5 and a season air yard share of 35% and 34% of the RZ targets. His price has come way down, he’s cheaper than Lockett on DK (same price on FD), and I don’t see him getting steam with how run heavy/slow/incompetent the Seahawks are as a whole, yet I still love his chances of a blowup game against the lowly Texans.
DJ Moore
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 15.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 18.3%
Why? → I did not realize until I started research this week that DJ Moore has not seen fewer than 7 targets in any game this season despite having multiple (mostly bad) QB play and while he also leads all WRs in uncatchable targets, it’s very encouraging to see the consistent volume on a weekly basis. Moore is seeing a 40% air yards share, 25% target share (9.1 targets per game), 31% of the RZ targets, and has a more than winnable matchup against a Falcons team that has given up the 8th most fantasy points on average to WRs this season.
Tier 2
Mike Evans
Karma Position Rank: 13
DK Proj. OWN% 8.7%
FD Proj. OWN% 10.9%
Why? → Very similar to what I wrote last week, I love Godwin as a play and the Bills are noticeably week against the slot, but with Evans now cheaper than Godwin and an outside WR matchup that will NOT feature Tre’ White (IR; shutdown CB), Evans finds himself in a potential blowup spot. Yes, as I say a lot, WR/CB matchups can be overrated, but Evans should be towering over whoever covers him (probably Dane Jackson; 5 inches shorter) and I think Evans in general should go overlooked as the Bills have been the best defense against WRs all season… however, that was with Tre’ White in the lineup.
Michael Gallup
Karma Position Rank: 16
DK Proj. OWN% 3.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 5.7%
Why? → Since returning from IR (has played 4 games), Gallup is averaging 8 targets per game, a 28% air yards share, and an impressive aDOT of 11.8 (which is funny enough 3rd on the team). Amari Cooper is still dealing with an injury (always* dealing with an injury), Lamb is $1700 more expensive on DK and FD, and Gallup has been running a route on a higher % of drop backs/has a higher target share than Amari since his return a few weeks ago. I still think Gallup is too cheap given the offense he’s a part of and should come in with low ownership despite a prime matchup as others around him like Landry/Gage/Cooks should dilute his pOWN%.
Tier 3
Laviska Shenault
Karma Position Rank: 29
DK Proj. OWN% 6.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 4.5%
Why? → Similar to Jacobs, I am an outspoken Shenault non-truther as he seemingly is hated by Urban Meyer and never produces compared to his expectation. What I like about him this week is 1) pOWN% should be low with him never putting up noticeable box scores, 2) the Jags continue to deal with injuries and 3) the matchup is great, with the Titans yielding the most targets to slot WRs this season (8.7 per game), where Shenault has lined up 60% of the time. Even as a hater, the volume is there! 4+ targets in 7 straight games, 6-7 targets on average over his last 4, and this should be the best matchup he gets all season. Is there huge risk? Of course, as the Jags are bad and none of them have done much all season; however, Viska is only $4300 on DK ($5300 on FD) and to be a valuable piece doesn’t need to pop off, but rather continue his volume and maybe we’ll get lucky and he catches (or rushes) for his first TD of the season!
Tyler Boyd
Karma Position Rank: 24
DK Proj. OWN% 2.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 1.7%
Why? → I like Boyd a lot as a player and despite him having many down games, I don’t think it’s because of the team/his play but rather he doesn’t see as many opportunities given his 2 WR counterparts. I love his matchup this week, especially at a cheap price, as the 49ers have given up the 3rd most points to slot WRs this season and I think this is one of the games where we see his utilization go up, especially if Burrow’s hand (pinky I think?) isn’t fully healed. Boyd’s path to a dud game is certainly prevalent, as over his last 6 games he has 4 with 7-8 targets as well as 2 games with 2 targets and 3 or less fantasy points. I like him more on the full-PPR DraftKings but at a cheap price he gives a (mostly) decent floor with upside if he gets in the endzone.
Josh Reynolds
Karma Position Rank: 25
DK Proj. OWN% 4.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 1.9%
Why? → I touched on it last week, but it still holds true… yes, the Lions suck but Reynolds has become the WR1 there with 15 targets over his last 3 games and a very cheap $4100 price tag on DK ($5300 on FD) that similar to the likes of Tyler Boyd/Viska doesn’t need to drop a 30-bomb to hit serious value. With an aDOT of 14.3, Reynolds doesn’t need to rely as much on volume as he’s reached 70 receiving yards in each of his last 2 with 3 and 4 catches, respectively. I expect Javonte Williams on Denver should be very popular and a nice little mini stack with Williams/Reynolds is great leverage in 3/5/20 max GPPs.
Chalk I’m On → Chris Godwin // Tee Higgins // Jalen Guyton
Chalk I’m Off → Hunter Renfrow // Brandin Cooks // Jarvis Landry // Joshua Palmer
TE
Travis Kelce
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 6.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 14.0%
Why? → It’s funny that many started to question if Kelce was dust during mid-season as he’s seen 7+ targets in 8 straight games and the Raiders have given up the 3rd most targets to TEs this season on average (8.5 per game). Perhaps the most shocking part of this position this week is how low owned Kelce could be given the price tag and the field’s propensity to, in general, pay down at TE. Kelce is a WR with a “TE” designation, is receiving 22% of the team targets, over 8 targets per game, and continues to run a route on 90+% of Mahomes’ drop backs on a weekly basis.
Dawson Knox
Karma Position Rank: 9
DK Proj. OWN% 2.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 3.4%
Why? → Phew, no one is gonna want to go back to Knox after his drop and penalty-ridden performance against the Pats on MNF. We now get Knox as the 8th most expensive TE on DK (6th most on FD) and miniscule ownership because he dropped some passes in a snowy/40 MPH gusts NFL game. Bounce back game. Knox is still on a Top 5 offense in the league, has 7.3 targets per game over his last 3, and the Bucs, quietly, can be stomped by good TEs, as they’ve given up the 7th most points to the position and the 3rd most targets allowed to TEs through 13 weeks.
Evan Engram
Karma Position Rank: 12
DK Proj. OWN% 2.7%
FD Proj. OWN% 1.5%
Why? → Evan Engram probably sucks. The Giants definitely suck. The Chargers defense sucks at covering TEs (given up 3rd most points on average to the position). If nothing else, Engram has at least seen consistent volume, with no fewer than 3 targets in each game this season with 5+ targets in 6 of his last 7 games. What this boils down to even more is that the Giants entire WR core is either out/doubtful/has a lingering injury/etc. and they can’t give the ball to Saquon 45 times a game. I think the popular bring back in this game will be Barkley, and I get it, but Engram is still facing a bottom tier defense against TEs, ranks 9th in % of routes run on QB drop backs, and a has a relevant 15% target share (Top 10 among TEs on the slate).
Austin Hooper
Karma Position Rank: 11
DK Proj. OWN% 8.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 3.5%
Why? → Starting with the positives, Hooper, at least I think, should be last TE standing in the offense this Sunday with Bryant out and Njoku on the COVID list. Next, he’s seeing 25% of the Browns RZ targets and the Ravens have given up the 2nd most PPR points per game TEs and allowed the most targets to TE on average (9.1) so far this season. As for the negatives… well, Baker sucks, the Browns have passed for 225 or less yards in 10 of 12 games this season, and despite the Ravens poor performance against TEs, most of the shredding came from top tier TEs such as Kelce and Darren Waller. Based on his presumed role with the other two out, I like Hooper as a fine cash game play and I do like him in tournaments even he doesn’t get too steamed up; however, the risk is still there, and I likely won’t play him as a one off but as part of a game stack with the Ravens. Lastly, it is worth mentioning that since they run a lot of 2/3 TE sets, the Browns pass to the TE position at the highest rate in the league (31% of targets) and the Baltimore defense is dealing with an injury to just about everyone in the secondary.
Stacks
Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, “the field” (large field GPPs) still don’t stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team’s WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time.
The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team’s QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team’s Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack’s projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally “OWN% Value”, which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside.
DraftKings Stacks –
Check back Friday for my STACKS/Team Matchups/Slate Simulations article!
FanDuel Stacks –
Check back Friday for my STACKS/Team Matchups/Slate Simulations article!
