Intro
There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!
Links to other content!
Ben’s Week 13 Breakdown! (Article) >>> Coming Soon
QB
Lamar Jackson
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 6.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 8.4%
Why? → It’s certainly interesting to me that Lamar carries arguably the same and/or a slightly higher ceiling than Brady but should be around 1/3 the ownership come Sunday due to a $600 price difference! Lamar trails only Brady among QBs on the slate in terms of air yards per game (317 vs. Brady’s 335) and Lamar’s pOWN% should stay relatively low with the perception of the Steelers’ D being “consistently strong” but they have been torched by WRs all season and should be without TJ Watt on the D-Line and possibly Joe Haden in the secondary.
Tom Brady
Karma Position Rank: 1
DK Proj. OWN% 13.0%
FD Proj. OWN% 15.7%
Why? → Last week was a fun one as I had a Brady/Lenny/Evans stack that I swapped out 10 minutes before lock only to proceed to watch Lenny break the slate with a 4 TD game. Fun times. Brady looked a little off last game but now gets the Falcons lowly defense that is tied for 2nd to last in adjusted sack rate for defenses on the slate combined with Brady’s slate-leading air yards per game + 44 drop backs per game (tied for most) + the Bucs #1 in EPA/Play + the Bucs #5 in EPA/Drop back + the Falcons ranking 3rd to last in Pass DVOA, and 5th worst in fantasy points surrendered to QBs… I think we get the point.
Justin Herbert
Karma Position Rank: 6
DK Proj. OWN% 9.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 9.0%
Why? → Despite looking a little sluggish recently with a few hard-fought losses, the Chargers rank 3rd in the league in Pass Rate over Expectation over the full season, 4th over the last 4 weeks, and while the Bengals defense has been better than most (definitely me) expected, we’ve seen them in shootouts multiple times this season against strong offenses. Herbert has thrown for 300+ iin 3 of his last 4, has thrown for 2+ TDs in 4 of his last 5, and ranks 2nd in my projections in terms of projected pass attempts (Projections Portal).
Derek Carr (also interested in Heinicke if Carr gets too high of a pOWN%)
Karma Position Rank: 4
DK Proj. OWN% 8.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.1%
Why? → Admittedly, I’ll be less interested in Carr if he gets some steam and comes in at 10+% ownership (give or take), but the spot is a great one for the Raiders to pick up where they left off in a big win last Thursday. WFT ranks 3rd to last in Pass DVOA this season, dead last in fantasy points given up to QBs, and the Raiders rank 7th in the league in Pass Rate over Expectation over the last 4 weeks. Most of my interest in Carr stems from his #1 rank in deep passes per game, with nearly 1000 yards/7 TDs (per Ian Haritz of PFF) when throwing 20+ yards this season. Lucky for Carr, WFT ranks 3rd to last in covering explosive pass plays thus far combined with WFT being a “pass funnel,” giving up 26 Pass TDs (most in the league), good for nearly 2.5 per game compared to only 8 rush TDs this season (0.7 per game).
RB
Tier 1
Austin Ekeler
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 11.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 12.2%
Why? → Austin Ekeler may be one of the most interesting RB options, as well as overall fantasy options, on the slate this week given the perceived chalk of both teams’ passing games and DFS players most likely paying up to Taylor or dropping to the likes of Mattison/Fournette, etc. So far this season, nearly 60% of Ekeler’s fantasy points (141/242) have come in the receiving game, good for about 12.5 PPR points per game solely in receiving production. The Cincy defense has been solid against the run/rush thus far but have yielded the 4th most RB reception points (13.7). The matchup may not be as elite as other RBs on the slate, but Ekeler ranks 2nd in weighted opportunities per game (behind Najee), 2nd in total High-Value Touches (“HVT”; per Ben Gretch), and nearly 6 targets per game (14% of team targets), which adding it all together, gives us a great floor with tremendous upside.
Alexander Mattison
Karma Position Rank: 15
DK Proj. OWN% 12.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 11.9%
Why? → It doesn’t look like it now, but I really hope people choose to pay down for a cheaper RB or just go up and get Taylor, leaving Mattison and his elevated price tag somewhat overlooked. Yes, Dalvin Cook is very good, but is Mattison really a step down whatsoever? I don’t think so. In the last 5 games where Mattison has received at least 12 touches, he’s averaged nearly 135 yards from scrimmage, scored 3 TDs, and gets a matchup with the dusty Lions, who’ve given up the 3rd most points per game to RBs this season (28.3 DK points/25.1 FD points). Mattison is expensive for a “backup” but has a lot of paths to a Top 3/Top 5 RB.
Tier 2
Saquon Barkley
Karma Position Rank: 17
DK Proj. OWN% 7.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.6%
Why? → Barkley has burned me I think every time I’ve played him this season; however, we should now get him at 7% or lower ownership on both sites and while the matchup isn’t great and his team sucks, we do have SOME positives that I think make him a strong leverage option. Barkley leads RBs on the slate in RZ opportunities (62% of RZ work), he will likely be without Daniel Jones (more rushing opportunities), and while the Dolphins D has been playing much better, they still yield 105 rush yards per game and with Glennon at the helm, I don’t see the Giants trying to rack up the pass attempts. Barkley presents a lot of risk, but in his 6 healthy games this season, he’s averaged nearly 5 HVTs per game and has seen at least 5+ targets in his last 4 full games.
Eli Mitchell
Karma Position Rank: 3
DK Proj. OWN% 18.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 16.9%
Why? → When Kyle Shanahan finds his guy, well he finds his guy. In his last 2 games, Mitchell has 54 total rush attempts and gets a matchup now, as a bell cow of sorts, against the Seahawks and their 2nd to last rank in fantasy points given up to RBs this season (32.9 DK points per game/28.0 FD points per game). Now, we have Deebo out, who as a WR was taking several rush attempts per game and the run-heavy 49ers (rank 7th in EPA/Rush as well) in what should be a slow-paced game but one that Mitchell could reach near 30 touches for the 3rd straight game.
Tier 3
James Conner
Karma Position Rank: 9
DK Proj. OWN% 19.8%
FD Proj. OWN% 19.2%
Why? → Regression will almost certainly find its level eventually (RIGHT????), but Conner has scored a TD in his last 8 of 9 games and 2 TDs in 4 of 8 of those games this season. With Edmonds out, he’s seen target counts of 5/4/6 over his last 3 and with Kyler back under center (still coming off an injury, mind you), I expect the Cardinals to keep rolling with Conner in what should/could be a cold and slow game in Chicago. The matchup isn’t pristine, but Conner is seeing a majority of the RZ work and the Bears D has given up 100+ rush yards in 5 of their last 6 games.
Myles Gaskin
Karma Position Rank: 11
DK Proj. OWN% 3.0%
FD Proj. OWN% 4.2%
Why? → Gaskin is a bizarre fantasy player, as he has been mega-chalk a few times this season, has dealt with multiple QBs/RBs around him, and yet some weeks comes in as a sub 5% RB at a cheap price. Gaskin has averaged 4-5 targets per game through 12 weeks and facing a Giants run funnel that’s been average against QBs/WRs/TEs but given up the 5th most fantasy points on average to RBs. Over his last 6 games (since RB injuries hit the Dolphins), Gaskin has averaged 20.3 touches per game, and I expect around the same volume as the Dolphins continue to try and turn their season around.
Chalk I’m On → Jonathan Taylor // Jamaal Williams // Darrell Henderson
Chalk I’m Off → Joe Mixon // David Montgomery // Joe Mixon // Lenny Fournette (at >15%)
WR
Tier 1
Justin Jefferson
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 9.3%
FD Proj. OWN% 12.2%
Why? → I completely get paying up for Kupp this week, and I most likely will have a decent amount of exposure to him as well, but at $800 cheaper, sub 10% ownership, and a whopping 42.2% air yards share, the spot doesn’t get much better for Jefferson. The Lions rank 2nd to last in yards per attempt allowed, 2nd to last in defending explosive pass plays, and pretty much have no hope in trying to limit Jefferson’s size advantage and high aDOT (12.7). I love Jefferson as my favorite GPP WR this week and to add icing on the cake, he’s seeing nearly 30% of the Vikings RZ targets despite Thielen seemingly scoring 14 TDs per week.
Terry McLaurin
Karma Position Rank: 6
DK Proj. OWN% 5.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 9.6%
Why? → It seems like McLaurin has a brutal WR/CB matchup more often than not and that’s true this week as I expect him to be shadowed by Casey Heyward a significant amount of the time. However, with his talent and boom/bust potential, McLaurin should come in not only VERY low owned, but offers great leverage in what I assume will be a very chalk Gibson. Further, volume trumps just about everything in fantasy and McLaurin is seeing 45% (FORTY-FIVE!!!!) of the team’s air yards this season, good for 8.7 targets per game, 26% of the team targets, and a WOPR of 0.71 (1st of all WRs on the slate). McLaurin’s elevated price tag/middling matchup should keep pOWN% low but he has the mega 30+ point upside we’re targeting.
Mike Evans
Karma Position Rank: 16
DK Proj. OWN% 7.2%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.5%
Why? → I wanted to write up Godwin, but unfortunately the Fantasy community is sharper than it once was, and despite a terrible last game, Godwin should be one of the chalkier WR options again. Enter the higher priced/lower owned Mike Evans. Priced only $100 more than Godwin, Evans should see 1/2 or even 1/3 the ownership and he has an advantage in % of air yards (30% vs. 18%), is seeing the same number of targets per game (7-8), and carries a much larger aDOT (13.6 vs. 8.0). Godwin is a great play as well, but Evans has the 2 TD/100+ yard ceiling game that can happen on far fewer targets and I expect a heavier dose than the 3 reception/16 yard game he posted against the Colts last week.
Tier 2
Marquise Brown
Karma Position Rank: 7
DK Proj. OWN% 6.0%
FD Proj. OWN% 6.1%
Why? → Over his last 4 games, Marquise Brown has seen targets of 14/12/13/10… that’s good for over 12 per game. Brown has really shown his insane upside this season and the stats back him up, with a 34% air yards share, near 20% RZ share, and Lamar’s clear #1 target. As mentioned above, the Steelers are always thought of as a shut down D, but they’ve given up the 8th most fantasy points to WRs this season and are tied with MIN/SF/DEN in giving up the 2nd most targets (61%) to WRs through the first 12 weeks.
Tee Higgins
Karma Position Rank: 14
DK Proj. OWN% 10.1%
FD Proj. OWN% 9.9%
Why? → Higgins has played 9 healthy games out of a possible 11 so far, and he is the #1 targeted WR on the team in those games, not Ja’Marr Chase (67 targets for Higgins/65 targets for Chase). This is not to say that Chase isn’t a great option as well, but at a $1200 discount and working on the outside compared to the slot (PIT is a Top 10 D against slot WRs this season), Higgins still feels far too cheap at 5800 on DK and 6600 on FD. 7.4 targets per game, 32% of the team’s air yards, an aDOT of nearly 12 (11.9), and running the most routes on Burrow drop backs of anyone on the team makes me love Higgins (every week) for another blowup game.
Tier 3
Van Jefferson Jr.
Karma Position Rank: 25
DK Proj. OWN% 6.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 10.2%
Why? → I get the OBJ looks better (certainly) than he did in Cleveland, but Jefferson is now $200 cheaper than him and has run a route on a higher % of Stafford drop backs, has a higher aDOT (14.1 vs. 12.3) than OBJ, and should come in lower owned despite similar target shares in the Rams offense. I think both WRs carry obvious risk and both, especially Jefferson, are probably best suited for Rams team stacks and/or game stacks, but it’s worth noting that Jefferson has seen 7 or more targets in 5 straight games while only scoring 2 TDs.
Marvin Jones Jr.
Karma Position Rank: 24
DK Proj. OWN% 9.5%
FD Proj. OWN% 7.7%
Why? → This matchup couldn’t get much worse as Marvin will most likely see a lot of Jalen Ramsey, but as I said about Barkley, I’ll take a shot on the volume and hope it outweighs the matchup and game environment. With Dan Arnold still in the mix, MJJ was seeing a 30% air yards share and now with Arnold’s 20% or so target share left to distribute, MJJ could see a strong uptick in his already high 6.7 targets per game in a game where most of us expect the Jags to be throwing a majority of the time. It’s worth mentioning that while Ramsey and the Rams pass D is strong as a whole, they have given up the 11th most fantasy points per game to WRs this season.
DeSean Jackson
Karma Position Rank: 45
DK Proj. OWN% 1.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 1.9%
Why? → One of the more boom/bust plays I’ve ever written; Jackson truly does encompass a player who can “pay off their salary in one play.” Last week vs. Dallas, Jackson posted 3 catches for 102 yards and a TD on only 24 routes run. Carrying a massive aDOT of nearly 20 (19.3), I like pairing Jackson with Carr, as I’ll reiterate, they’re playing the WFT’s 3rd to last ranked D in terms of defending explosive plays this season combined with Carr’s #1 rank in deep passes attempted per game.
Chalk I’m On → Cooper Kupp // Keenan Allen // Diontae Johnson // Chris Godwin
Chalk I’m Off → Jaylen Waddle // Brandin Cooks // Laviska Shenault // OBJ
TE
Kyle Pitts
Karma Position Rank: 2
DK Proj. OWN% 7.4%
FD Proj. OWN% 12.0%
Why? → Pitts has been on such a roller coast this year as his talent is CLEARLY there, but his team stinks, Matt Ryan is dust, and the schedule hasn’t been easy. Still without Ridley in the mix, Pitts draws a strong matchup this week against, yes, a good TB pass defense, but one that has given up the 5th most points per game to TEs this season and are allowing 8.6 targets per game to the position. Pitts has amazingly only scored 1 TD this season (in the London game, naturally), but has seen 5+ targets in 8 straight games, 6+ in 7 of those 8, and is the Falcons best chance of keeping the game competitive against the Bucs elite pass attack.
Rob Gronkowski
Karma Position Rank: 6
DK Proj. OWN% 7.9%
FD Proj. OWN% 4.4%
Why? → Fading the cheap Gronk chalk last week crushed me, as he went 7/123 on 10 targets as the lone bright spot in the Bucs receiving game. Now, he’s more expensive yes, but not too pricey on a week without Kelce and only 1 TE at 6k on DraftKings (he’s 7k on FanDuel and the 2nd most expensive TE). Gronk has posted insanely efficienct numbers this season, as he’s played only 4 full healthy games, with a 2.44 yards per route run (per PFF), an aDOT of 10.6, 6-8 targets per game, and the highest Targets/Route of any TE on the slate (0.26). Gronk is right up there with Andrews/Kittle/Pitts for the highest potential ceiling at the position.
Mike Gesicki
Karma Position Rank: 7
DK Proj. OWN% 3.7%
FD Proj. OWN% 4.4%
Why? → Gesicki has posted some duds recently, and no, it’s not lost on me that he started posting duds when I wrote him up every week; nevertheless, he’s going to be sub 5% owned on both sites and is still seeing an average of 6 targets per game and running a route on 90+% of his snaps, which is a stat reserved only for the MOST ELITE! The Giants have given up the 6th most TE targets so far this season (8.4 per game) and Gesicki is seeing a very respectable 23% of the team’s air yards and yes, yes, he still is a WR with a TE designation.
Pat Freiermuth
Karma Position Rank: 8
DK Proj. OWN% 4.6%
FD Proj. OWN% 4.2%
Why? → Last but certainly not least, I love the idea of going back to Freiermuth this week as I expected Diontae Johnson to garner a decent amount of pOWN% (and rightfully so), but MUTH to go overlooked despite the Ravens giving up the most TE targets of any defense in the league this season (9.4 per game). Is Big Ben washed? Most definitely, but he’s still chucking the ball and the Ravens have given up over 17 points on average to TEs over their first 11 games, and MUTH has seen 26% of the team’s RZ targets, and has seen 4 or more targets per game in 6 straight games.
Stacks
Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, “the field” (large field GPPs) still don’t stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team’s WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time.
The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team’s QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team’s Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack’s projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally “OWN% Value”, which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside.
DraftKings Stacks –
Check back Friday for my STACKS/Team Matchups/Slate Simulations article!
FanDuel Stacks –
Check back Friday for my STACKS/Team Matchups/Slate Simulations article!
