Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Jason Bales’s “Red Zone Targets” article. Each week, he analyzes one leader in red zone rushes or targets that has a certain amount of untapped potential. In identifying these players, fantasy owners can delve further into their own research, bookmarking them for possible trade candidates in season-long fantasy football leagues, or tournament plays in daily fantasy football leagues.
Running Back Red Zone Targets Value:
Carlos Hyde (HOU)
Before the devastating injury to Lamar Miller, the 28-year-old topped the depth chart. He would’ve been given as many carries as he could handle, but a torn ACL will keep him sidelined for the entire 2019-20 campaign. Following that injury, the Houston Texans traded the Cleveland Browns for Duke Johnson. Johnson would finally get the bell cow running back position that he earned over the last few seasons, or so all the fantasy gurus thought.
Fast forward to Week 8 of the regular season, and Carlos Hyde is leading the Houston Texans in red zone rushes with 16; Johnson earned 6. The hype is nearly dead, even though everyone still (rightfully so) thinks Johnson deserves a higher snap share. Hyde has looked impressive so far this season, especially in Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs. He rushed for over 100 yards and 1 touchdown on 26 carries, 5 of which were in the red zone.
Most carries inside the 5-yard line
10 – Sony Michel
9 – Dalvin Cook
8 – Mark Ingram
7- Carlos Hyde, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip Lindsay
6. Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Jordan Howard, Frank Gore
— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) October 22, 2019
Last week, Hyde faltered. He received 12 carries (2 in the red zone), gaining only 35 yards. Most importantly, his snap share dropped from 65.1% in Week 6 to 41.4% in Week 7. Johnson’s snap share increased from 33.7% in Week 6 to 60.3% in Week 7. Johnson is the featured RB in the passing attack, and Hyde excels most against teams that struggle against the straight rush.
This week, the Texans are at home against Jon Gruden’s Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are the fifth best team in the league against the rush. This is a fade week for Hyde in season-long football leagues, but he might be worth a flier in deeper daily fantasy football tournaments due to his touchdown upside.
Wide Receiver Red Zone Targets Value:
Keenan Allen (LAC)
For as well as Keenan Allen is performing right now, his red zone efficiency is low. Philip Rivers connected with the 27-year-old 2 times beyond the pylon markers on 10 targets. Allen is tied for second in red zone targets behind James White. He is tied for first among WRs.
Allen’s 861 total air yards are the most among active WRs, and he is seventh in the league in PPR fantasy points. Despite returning value for fantasy owners, Allen has untapped potential in the Los Angeles Chargers’ passing attack. His 561 total receiving yards should be higher with how low his average depth of target (aDOT) is. Most importantly, he should be scoring more touchdowns.
He is receiving 50% of his red zone targets on second down with 7-10 yards to either a first down or touchdown. When targeting Allen inside the 20-yard line, Rivers is 7-of-10 for over 50 yards, 4 first downs, and 2 touchdowns. That gives Allen a touchdown efficiency rating of only 20%. With Hunter Henry finally healthy, the Chargers’ red zone offense will see an uptick in efficiency, and Allen should benefit. He is worth targeting in all season-long fantasy football leagues.
Next week, the Chargers look to continue the disappointment felt in Chicago, as they travel to challenge Matt Nagy’s Bears on Sunday. The New Orleans Saints looked great offensively against the Bears, and the Chargers have similar offensive weapons. A Rivers-Allen stack makes sense in daily fantasy football tournaments.
Tight End Red Zone Targets Value:
Jimmy Graham (GB)
Jimmy Graham started the 2019-20 NFL season off at a turtle’s speed, catching 3 passes for 30 yards and 1 touchdown in 3 games. All of those receptions came against the Chicago Bears, prior to Graham disappearing in two consecutive games. In Week 2, against the Minnesota Vikings, he earned 2 targets on 21 routes run and a snap share over 70%. In Week 3, that dropped to 1 target on 9 routes run and a snap share below 40%. His stat line included straight zeros in both games.
Over the last few weeks, Graham has been performing at a much higher level. In his last four games, he has 15 receptions for 184 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Most importantly, Aaron Rodgers is starting to trust him in the red zone. Inside the 20-yard line, Rodgers looked Graham’s direction 9 times, which is tied for first in the league for TEs with Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce. On those 9 targets, Graham pulled in 5 for 36 yards and 3 touchdowns.
This might be a problem for defenses.
AARON RODGERS TO JIMMY GRAHAM. ???? #PITvsGB pic.twitter.com/qfG00BJfdC
— NFL (@NFL) August 17, 2018
Moving forward, Graham should continue to receive ample opportunity inside the 20-yard line. As long as Rodgers continues to trust him, he has high touchdown upside. In season-long football leagues, consider trading for him as long as the asking price is reasonable. He should start returning value at a greater rate shortly. In daily fantasy football leagues, Graham is always worth a shot at the TE position in tournaments for his ability to find the end zone.
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