Running Back Red Zone Targets Value:
Nick Chubb (CLE)
Nick Chubb started the season off slowly in terms of red zone production. In Week 1, against the Tennessee Titans, he earned 0 red zone rushes. That number steadily increased to 2 against the New York Jets, 3 against the Los Angeles Rams, 4 against the Baltimore Ravens, and 8 in Week 6 against the Seattle Seahawks. On the season, he has 19 red zone rush attempts for 66 yards and 5 touchdowns.
It is clear that Cleveland Browns trust Chubb inside the 20-yard line. Chubb’s increased red zone production is likely the result of the Browns’ increased red zone presence, as well as Freddie Kitchens’ diminishing trust in Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has 11 interceptions on the season, and inside the red zone, players need to protect the football.
When given the opportunity, Chubb has accomplished the task of gaining a first down or touchdown, as he does exactly that on 26.3% of his red zone rushes. Most of those rushes (73.7%) are granted on a first down or with 7-10 yards to gain (63.2%). After this week’s bye, Chubb will remain an integral part of the Browns’ red zone offense. His touchdown production should only increase, and if Mayfield continues to struggle or misses time due to his current hip injury, Chubb will see even more touches.
Wide Receiver Red Zone Targets Value:
Auden Tate (CIN)
The Cincinnati Bengals are currently dealing with multiple injuries at the WR position, which has opened up playing time opportunities for Auden Tate. AJ Green continues to recover from ankle surgery, but he should return within the next couple of weeks. John Ross, after a very hot start to the season, sustained a shoulder injury that will keep him out multiple weeks.
Tate, after not playing in Week 1 and playing only 41% of the offensive snaps for the Bengals in Week 2, played at least 89% of all offensive snaps since Week 3. Against the Baltimore Ravens, he ran 34 routes, earning 12 targets. Of those 12 targets, he caught 5 passes for 91 yards. Until Green and Ross return, Tate should continue to produce in the red zone.
On the season, he has 8 total red zone targets, catching 4 passes for 25 yards and 1 touchdown. In limited snaps, he has 32% of the team’s total red zone target share, and Andy Dalton has a QBR over 90 when targeting Tate inside the 20-yard line. Tate will be worth watching closely, as Green starts to participate in practice again. If he plays well enough over the next two weeks, he could carve out a significant spot in the Bengals’ struggling offense.
Next week, Dalton and company battle the Jacksonville Jaguars in Cincinnati. Without Jalen Ramsey, the Jaguars’ defense is much worse for wear. If Green and Ross are out, Tate will continue to see double-digit targets. His upside is very high relative to his perceived value, making him a flex option in season-long leagues and a good value option in daily fantasy leagues.
Tight End Red Zone Targets Value:
Hunter Henry (LAC)
Hunter Henry is quickly going to become one of the best TEs in the league. After struggling with injuries early in his career, Henry is ready to put the past behind him and show that he can stay on the field. In Week 1, he saw 98.2% of the Los Angeles Chargers’ offensive snaps, running 23 routes. He earned 5 targets, caught 4 passes, and gained 60 yards.
After missing Weeks 2 through 5, Henry returned Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He only saw 69% of the team’s total offensive snaps, but ran 32 routes. He earned 9 targets, caught 8 passes, gained 100 yards, and scored 2 touchdowns. Both of those touchdowns came inside the 20-yard line, as Henry earned 3 red zone targets, catching 2 for 16 yards.
It is clear that Philip Rivers already trusts the former Arkansas Razorback. As Henry’s snap share increases, his targets, including those in the red zone, will also increase. He has Travis Kelce-like upside, but fantasy owners are too scared of his health to take the risk right now. He is an elite option in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues right now.
Next week, the Tennessee Titans will look to slow Henry down. With Keenan Allen on the outside, the Titans could forget about Henry over the middle. Expect him to have a significant role in the offensive game plan.
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