Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Jason Bales’s “Red Zone Targets” article. Each week, he analyzes one leader in red-zone rushes or targets that have a certain amount of untapped potential. In identifying these players, fantasy owners can delve further into their own research, bookmarking them for possible trade candidates in season-long fantasy football leagues, or tournament plays in daily fantasy football leagues.
Running Back Red Zone Targets Value:
Kenyan Drake (ARI)
After a disappointing start to the season in Miami, the Dolphins agreed to trade Kenyan Drake to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for a conditional 2020 draft pick. With both David Johnson and Chase Edmonds on the roster, it seemed unlikely that Drake would see a majority of the Cardinals’ carries, but in Weeks 15 and 16, he eclipsed 20 carries in each game. Last week, he earned an 83.6% snap share, and he should see similar numbers this week against the Los Angeles Rams.
In the last two weeks combined, Drake saw double-digit red zone carries. Against the Cleveland Browns, he ran inside the 20-yard line 7 times, gaining 4.7 yards per carry and scoring 4 touchdowns. Against the Seattle Seahawks, his red-zone efforts earned him 1.3 yards per carry and 1 touchdown. With 5 touchdowns in two weeks, Drake quickly asserted himself as one of the best, high-upside running backs in the league, at least as far as fantasy football is concerned.
The Rams focus more on offense than defense, and the Cardinals are going to want to control the clock. If Drake continues to be the workhorse running back for the Cardinals’ offense, he should have no problems racking up fantasy points this Sunday. For those that play their season-long fantasy football championships during Week 17, he could be a sneaky start. In daily fantasy leagues, he is worth consideration in both cash games and GPPs due to his carry rate and touchdown upside.
Wide Receiver Red Zone Targets Value:
Julio Jones (ATL)
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Julio Jones, if he plays this weekend, should break Mike Evans stranglehold on the NFL total air yards lead, but beyond that, his red-zone efficiency is increasing as well. In Week 15, against the San Francisco 49ers, he ran 34 routes, caught 13-of-20 targets, gained 134 receiving yards, and scored 2 touchdowns. Inside the 20-yard line, he was targeted 4 times. He picked up at least a first down on every target. In Week 16, against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he ran 42 routes, caught 10-of-15 targets, and gained 166 receiving yards. It is clear that the Atlanta Falcons want to force him the ball. His sole red-zone target did not result in a touchdown last week, but he will have plenty more chances in Week 17 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On the season, Jones receives his red-zone targets 26.7% of the time on first down, 33.3% of the time on second down, and 40% of the time on third down. He is a threat no matter what down and length of distance to either a first down or touchdown. With Matt Ryan at quarterback, he earned 14 red-zone targets, catching 11 of those passes for 56 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Ryan’s quarterback rating when throwing toward Jones inside the 20-yard line is 122.9.
The Buccaneers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but their high-powered offense keeps them competitive in some games. This should turn into a shootout, and shootouts lead to scoring. If the Falcons find themselves in the red zone frequently, Jones will see plenty of red-zone targets. His big play and touchdown upside makes him a must-start in season-long leagues, and in daily fantasy leagues, it is tough to deny his production level over the last two weeks. Just ensure he is suiting up, as Week 17 gets complicated.
Tight End Red Zone Targets Value:
George Kittle (SF)
George Kittle’s frequent questionable status prior to the San Francisco 49ers’ games this season has been frustrating. That said, his red-zone opportunity is undeniable. In the last two weeks, he earned 25 total targets, 6 of which were inside the 20-yard line. Those 20 targets resulted in 18 receptions for over 200 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. In Week 15, against the Atlanta Falcons, he earned 4 red-zone targets, gaining 2.3 yards per reception and picking up a solo first down. In Week 16, against the Los Angeles Rams, he earned 1 red-zone target, which resulted in a touchdown.
He is currently 14th in the league in red-zone targets, third among tight ends. His red-zone opportunities have been high, but his efficiency can be improved upon. If Kittle starts to get more efficient in the red zone, his fantasy upside is unmatched at the tight end position. On the season, Jimmy Garoppolo is 11-of-17 when targeting Kittle inside the 20-yard line, gaining 58 passing yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. His quarterback rating is 109.4. Kittle has much more touchdown potential than he has shown this season.
This week, against the Seattle Seahawks, the 49ers are playing for the division. They want the first-round bye, and Kittle is going to have to be involved in any game plan that produces that bye. The Seahawks are a tough defense, but on a week where most teams are benching their starters, Kittle is a high-upside tight end option that shouldn’t be ignored. He is a must-start in season-long leagues, and if the salary cap is not an issue (it shouldn’t be; there is plenty of value elsewhere), he can be rostered in both cash games and GPPs.
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