Welcome to the Week 15 edition of Jason Bales’s “Red Zone Targets” article. Each week, he analyzes one leader in red-zone rushes or targets that has a certain amount of untapped potential. In identifying these players, fantasy owners can delve further into their own research, bookmarking them for possible trade candidates in season-long fantasy football leagues, or tournament plays in daily fantasy football leagues.
Running Back Red Zone Targets Value:
Joe Mixon (CIN)
Despite his poor performance in 2019, Joe Mixon is one of the better red-zone running backs. The Cincinnati Bengals are clearly committed to featuring him in their offense, but that offense is so poor that Mixon struggles from time to time. Fantasy owners are not impressed with his numbers this season, but he might be a good buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues, as well as a decent option during upcoming weeks in daily fantasy leagues.
On the season, Mixon earned a mediocre 3.8 yards per carry, rushing 206 times for 789 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also caught 29 passes. His touchdown efficiency is low, but the Bengals offered him the ball 28 times in the red zone, which is good enough for a spot in the top 15 in the league. He converted those carries into 66 rushing yards and all 3 of his touchdowns. He is seeing a red-zone carry rate similar to that of Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and others. The volume is consistent, but the Bengals’ offensive line is problematic. Next season, that could change.
This week, the Bengals get a tough matchup against the New England Patriots. The Patriots will likely score early and often, and Mixon could get ignored. Wait until Week 16 and 17 against the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns to start him in daily fantasy leagues. In season-long leagues, he is worth consideration as an RB3 in standard leagues and RB2 in deeper leagues.
Wide Receiver Red Zone Targets Value:
Davante Adams (GB)
Davante Adams played in only nine games this season due to a nagging toe injury. His production level is obviously disappointing for fantasy owners, but much like Joe Mixon, he is a good buy-low candidate right now in dynasty leagues. The Green Bay Packers are committed to Adams, and he is Aaron Rodgers’s favorite target. If he remains healthy for an entire season, it is possible that he finishes in the top 5 among NFL wide receivers.
On the season, he brought in 56 receptions for 685 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Compared to 111 receptions for 1,386 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in 2018, that’s atrocious. His yards per game dropped semi-significantly, but at 76.1, it still marks his second-best season to date. In the red zone, the Packers targeted Adams 14 times. He converted 10-of-14 targets into 60 receiving yards and all of his 3 touchdowns. Moving forward, Rodgers will continue to target Adams as frequently as possible in the red zone. He is 11th in the league in red-zone targets, despite missing five games.
In Week 15, the Packers square off against the Chicago Bears. The Bears are good defensively, but in-division games in Green Bay at the end of the season is where Rodgers shines. Over the next three weeks, the Packers play three division games against the Bears, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions. Adams is a must-start in all season-long fantasy leagues as long as he is healthy, and he can be rostered in all formats in daily fantasy leagues until the season is over, as well.
Tight End Red Zone Targets Value:
Tyler Higbee (LAR)
Tyler Higbee quickly established himself as one of the better tight end options in the league over the last two weeks. After running less than 10 routes in Week 10 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he ran at least 17 routes in three consecutive games. Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12, he caught 5 passes for 20 receiving yards. After that game, he broke out, catching 14 passes for over 200 receiving yards and 1 touchdown in the next two weeks. He was the best fantasy tight end in the league in Week 13. The 27-year-old from Western Kentucky is on his way to an impressive end to his 2019 season.
On the season, Higbee earned 13 red-zone targets, catching 9 passes for 45 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. This is exceptional considering he wasn’t the team’s number one tight end for most of the season. In the last two weeks, he has 7 red-zone targets.
This week, the Los Angeles Rams get a great matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, a team that struggles heavily against the pass. Jared Goff is starting to shine again, and Higbee is worth consideration in all season-long and daily fantasy leagues. He has elite-level upside, and the Rams are focused on getting him the ball. Until he stops producing, continue to target him, just like Goff is.
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