Welcome to the Week 14 edition of Jason Bales’s “Red Zone Targets” article. Each week, he analyzes one leader in red-zone rushes or targets that has a certain amount of untapped potential. In identifying these players, fantasy owners can delve further into their own research, bookmarking them for possible trade candidates in season-long fantasy football leagues, or tournament plays in daily fantasy football leagues.
Running Back Red Zone Targets Value:
Derrick Henry (TEN)
The Tennessee Titans’ playoff push is alive and well heading into the final few weeks of the season. In the last few years, the Titans relied heavily on Derrick Henry to close out their season, but they’re typically not in the playoff hunt. It’ll be interesting to see if Henry’s workload increases, as the Titans enter back-to-back must-win games. Despite a lack of hype surrounding his name, Henry eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards this season, and he is consistently among the league’s best in yards per carry.
On the season, the Titans handed the ball off to Henry 30 times inside the 20-yard line. He gained 87 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 11 first downs on 2.9 yards per carry. A majority of his touches came on first down (53.3%) or second down (33.3%). Henry’s larger frame helps him push the line and score touchdowns more frequently in the red zone. In 2019, all but two of his touchdowns came inside the 20-yard line thus far.
This week, the Titans get a tough matchup against the Oakland Raiders, but with how inconsistent most running backs tend to be, Henry is a must-start in season-long fantasy leagues, especially during the playoffs. In daily fantasy leagues, he is worth consideration in tournaments due to his upside and red zone efficiency. The Titans are starting to trust him more (finally), and Henry isn’t going to let them down.
Wide Receiver Red Zone Targets Value:
Zach Pascal (IND)
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Zach Pascal is the Indianapolis Colts’ leader in red-zone targets among wide receivers. He is tied with Jack Doyle and one target behind Eric Ebron when also including tight ends in the red-zone targets picture. Pascal is an up-and-down player, and last week, he exploded for over 100 receiving yards on 7 receptions. He failed to score a touchdown, but his upside is clear.
On the season, Pascal earned 9 red-zone targets, securing 4 of those targets for the same number of touchdowns. Every pass he caught this season inside the 20-yard line was a touchdown. He is targeted most frequently on first down (44.4%), followed by second down (33.3%) and third down (22.2%). When Jacoby Brissett targets Pascal in the red zone, his quarterback rating (QBR) spikes to 105.6. His QBR when targeting Doyle is 91.7 and 113.9 when targeting Ebron.
In Week 14, the Colts get a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are one of the fasted-paced teams in the league with Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. They score frequently, but also allow frequent scoring. The Colts will find the red zone often, making Pascal a great addition in season-long leagues, if fantasy owner’s playoff teams are dealing with injuries. In daily fantasy leagues, he is a great, high-upside tournament option, but his downside is significant, as well.
Tight End Red Zone Targets Value:
Ryan Griffin (NYJ)
The NFL just isn’t the same without Rob Gronkowski. Sure, Travis Kelce is a dominant force at the tight end position, securing 15 red-zone targets, but only catching 4 of them for 12 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Kelce disappointed fantasy owners this season, especially with regards to touchdown production. Gronkowski never let fantasy owners down! Alas, this recommendation is about Ryan Griffin. He has 6 red-zone targets, catching 5 of those passes for 37 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. His efficiency is great, but Sam Darnold and company tend to ignore him in the red zone with Le’Veon Bell in the offense. If he starts to become a bigger part of the red-zone offense, his upside increases tremendously.
This week, the New York Jets are at home against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league at defending all skill positions. The Jets should find themselves in the red zone quite frequently, and Griffin has a high ceiling because of that. In season-long leagues, he is worth a stream. In daily fantasy leagues, his price tag is low enough to roster in all formats.
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