Welcome to my NFL Divisional Round WR/CB Matchups to Attack and Avoid! In this article, I will be analyzing three matchups that we should be looking to exploit and three matchups that we should be looking to shy away from this weekend. Use these plays to better build your DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!
Matchups to Attack
DeAndre Hopkins vs Bashaud Breeland
DeAndre Hopkins enjoyed an elite season in 2019. He posted 110 receptions for 1,255 yards and 8 touchdowns on 158 targets. Hopkins saw a team-high 13 red zone targets this season, turning those into 7 receptions for 40 yards and 4 touchdowns. He ranked 10th in the NFL during the regular season in air yards (1,570), while boasting a respectable 10.5 aDOT over 15 games.
Hopkins has played 39% of his snaps as the Houston Texans left outside receiver this season. He’s tentatively expected to get a matchup against Bashaud Breeland, who has only played 8% of his snaps as the Kansas City Chiefs right outside cornerback. Breeland has only been targeted on 12% of his routes covered in 2019, allowing a 56% catch rate. He has only allowed his opponents to averaging 0.21 fantasy points and 1.14 yards per route covered this season. Still, Breeland has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) second worst cornerback on the slate this weekend. Hopkins has dominated elite corners in 2019, and he should find plenty of success in this matchup, as well.
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Davante Adams vs Tre Flowers
Davante Adams only played in 12 games this season. He was still able to post 83 receptions for 997 yards and 5 touchdowns on 127 targets. Adams also turned a team-high 18 red zone targets into 12 receptions for 75 yards and 3 touchdowns. He saw 1,270 air yards with a 10.0 aDOT in limited games in 2019, as well.
Adams has moved around the Green Bay Packers formation quite a bit this season, but he has played the majority of his snaps (38%) as their left outside receiver. He’ll face off against Tre Flowers, who has played 95% of his snaps as the Seattle Seahawks right outside cornerback. Flowers allowed a 65% catch rate in 2019, while being targeted on 18% of his routes covered. His opponents are averaging 0.29 fantasy points and 1.46 yards per route covered against him, as well. Overall, Flowers has graded out as a bottom-four cornerback on the NFL, according to PFF. Adams has quietly posted elite numbers in each of his last three games, and he will continue to see a massive role in the offense in a win or go home game.
Tyreek Hill vs Vernon Hargreaves III
Tyreek Hill dealt with injuries this season, playing in only 12 games. In that time, he owns 58 receptions for 860 yards and 7 touchdowns on 89 targets. He’s averaging a 5.2/79.8/0.8 line on 8.0 targets per game at home, as well. Hill has only seen 7 red zone targets in 2019, posting 4 receptions for 24 yards and 3 touchdowns inside-the-20. He also boasts 1,149 air yards with a 12.9 aDOT this season.
Hill has played 54% of his snaps as the Kansas City Chiefs slot receiver, although he could move outside for this matchup. If he stays in the slot, he’ll face off against Vernon Hargreaves III. The latter has played 49% of his snaps as a slot corner this season, but that is where he has played for the Houston Texans. Hargreaves was targeted on 18% of his routes covered this season, allowing a 68% catch rate. He’s allowing 0.37 fantasy points and 1.72 yards per route covered, as well. Hargreaves has graded out as the worst cornerback on the slate this weekend, per PFF. Even if Hill sees limited snaps in the slot, he should find plenty of success against Hargreaves.
Matchups to Avoid
Adam Thielen vs Richard Sherman
Adam Thielen struggled through 11 games in 2019. He posted 37 receptions for 547 yards and 7 touchdowns on 57 targets. Thielen saw only 7 red zone targets this season, turning those into 6 receptions for 56 yards and 3 touchdowns. He saw only 586 air yards with a 12.2 aDOT during the regular season.
Thielen played 42% of his snaps as the Minnesota Vikings right outside receiver in 2019. He’ll spend the majority of his time against Richard Sherman, who has played 98% of his snaps as the San Francisco 49ers left outside cornerback. Sherman held his opponents to a 63% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered this season. His opponents only average 0.23 fantasy points and 0.91 yards per route covered against him in 2019. Sherman has graded out as PFF’s best cornerback on this slate. Thielen is coming off of a dominant first round against the New Orleans Saints, but he saw plenty of struggles to end the season. Those struggles could continue in a difficult matchup this weekend.
Corey Davis vs Marcus Peters
Corey Davis struggled through 16 games this season. He posted 43 receptions for 601 yards and 2 touchdowns on 71 targets. Davis owns 2 receptions for 13 yards and 1 touchdowns on only 3 red zone targets in 2019. During the regular season, he saw 829 air yards with a 12.0 aDOT, as well.
Davis played 48% of his snaps as the Tennessee Titans right outside receiver in 2019. He gets a matchup against Marcus Peters, who played 62% of his snaps as a left outside cornerback this season. Peters was targeted on 18% of his routes covered, allowing a 62% catch rate. He held his opponents to 0.31 fantasy points and 1.32 yards per route covered, as well. Peters has graded out as the second best cornerback on the slate, per PFF. Davis failed to record a catch on two targets last week against the New England Patriots. He’s a player that can be avoided in difficult matchups.
Tyler Lockett vs Tramon Williams
Tyler Lockett found plenty of success throughout the season. Through 17 games, he owns 86 receptions for 1,119 yards and 8 touchdowns on 118 targets. Lockett saw a league-high 25 red zone targets this season. He posted 17 receptions for 144 yards and 7 touchdowns on the targets. He also saw 1,367 air yards with a 12.4 aDOT through 16 regular season games in 2019.
Lockett played 70% of his snaps as the Seattle Seahawks slot receiver this season. He gets a matchup against Tramon Williams. The latter played 81% of his snaps as the Green Bay Packers slot corner in 2019. He has been targeted on only 13% of his routes covered, holding his opponents to a 58% catch rate. Williams has held his opponents to 0.24 fantasy points and 1.33 yards per route covered, as well. He has graded out as the third best cornerback on the slate, according to PFF. Lockett is likely to continue to see somewhat of limited targets, and he is likely to struggle with efficiency in this particular matchup.
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