Welcome to my NFL Wildcard Weekend WR/CB Matchups to Attack and Avoid! In this article, I will be analyzing three matchups that we should be looking to exploit and three matchups that we should be looking to shy away from this weekend. Use these plays to better build your DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!
Matchups to Attack
Michael Thomas vs Xavier Rhodes
Michael Thomas has been enjoying an elite season. Through 16 games, he posted 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns on 185 targets. Thomas has also seen 1,484 air yards, although he only boasts an 8.0 aDOT in 2019. He ranks second in the NFL with 22 red zone targets, turning those into 16 receptions for 145 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Thomas has played 42% of his snaps as the New Orleans Saints left outside receiver this season. He’s expected to matchup against Xavier Rhodes, who has played 86% of his snaps as the Minnesota Vikings right outside cornerback. Rhodes has been targeted on 18% of his route covered in 2019, allowing a 78% catch rate. He has also allowed 0.38 fantasy points and 1.83 yards per route covered this season. Overall, Rhodes has graded out as the second worst cornerback on this slate, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). He boasts name value, but there’s very little reason to believe Thomas won’t find plenty of success in this matchup.
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D.K. Metcalf vs Rasul Douglas
D.K. Metcalf has quietly enjoyed an outstanding rookie season. He posted 58 receptions for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns on 100 targets. Metcalf has seen 1,296 air yards to go along with a 13.0 aDOT in 2019. He has struggled at times in the red zone, though, recording 5 receptions for 47 yards and 4 touchdowns on 17 red zone targets.
Metcalf has played the majority of his snaps (63%) as the Seattle Seahawks left outside receiver this season. He’ll face off against Rasul Douglas, who has played 91% of his snaps as the Philadelphia Eagles right outside cornerback. Douglas has been held his opponents to a 53% catch rate, although he has been targeted on 18% of his routes covered. He has also allowed his opponents to post 0.33 fantasy points and 1.69 yards per route covered in 2019. Douglas has graded out as the third worst cornerback on this slate, per PFF. Metcalf saw 12 targets in his last game, and he’s a player that comes with tremendous upside on a smaller playoff slate.
Cole Beasley vs Vernon Hargreaves III
Cole Beasley has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, but he has flashed tremendous upside at times. He has scored 20+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games. Through 15 games, Beasley posted 67 receptions for 778 yards and 6 touchdowns on 106 targets. Beasley has seen only 833 air yards with a 7.9 aDOT. His low aDOT has kept his efficiency higher than others, though. Beasley has seen a team-high 8 red zone targets, turning those into 7 receptions for 57 yards and 5 touchdowns.
He has played 75% of his snaps as the Buffalo Bills slot receiver in 2019. He’ll get a matchup against Vernon Hargreaves III, who has only played 45% of his snaps as a slot corner this season. Still, that’s the position he’s expected to play this weekend. Hargreaves has struggled, allowing a 67% catch rate, while being targeted on 19% of his routes covered. He has also allowed 0.38 fantasy points and 1.78 yards per route covered this season. Hargreaves has graded out as PFFs worst cornerback on this slate. Beasley should continue to see enough volume to make a solid option on this short slate.
Matchups to Avoid
Corey Davis vs Stephon Gilmore
Corey Davis has been a disappointment throughout the 2019 season. He has totaled 43 receptions for 601 yards and 2 touchdowns on 69 targets through 15 games. Davis has seen 829 air yards with a 12 aDOT, though. He has only seen three red zone targets in 2019. He posted 2 receptions for 13 yards and 1 touchdown on those targets.
Davis has played 49% of his snaps as the Tennessee Titans right outside receiver, but that won’t matter this weekend. He’s expected to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, who has moved around the New England Patriots lineup throughout the season. Gilmore has been targeted on 17% of his routes covered, holding his opponents to a 51% catch rate. He has also held his opponents to 0.21 fantasy points and 1.17 yards per route covered in 2019. Gilmore has graded out as the top cornerback on the slate, per PFF. If it’s announced that Gilmore will shadow A.J. Brown instead of Davis, Brown will be a player that can be avoided, although he comes with quite a bit of risk against any of these New England cornerbacks.
DeAndre Hopkins vs Tre’Davious White
DeAndre Hopkins has looked elite once again this season. He posted 104 receptions for 1,165 yards and 8 touchdowns on 150 targets. Hopkins has also seen 1,570 air yards to go along with a 10.5 aDOT in 2019. He has seen a team-high 13 red zone targets, turning those into 7 receptions for 40 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Hopkins has played the majority of his snaps (40%) of his snaps as the Houston Texans left outside receiver, but that isn’t likely to matter this weekend. Tre’Davious White is expected to shadow Hopkins for the Buffalo Bills. He has held his opponents to a 56% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered. White has also held his opponents to 0.22 fantasy points and 1.21 yards per route covered this season. He has also graded out as the PFF’s third best cornerback on the slate this weekend. Hopkins always comes with upside because of his volume and elite talent, but White is a cornerback that can slow Hopkins down, specifically for his price tag.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside vs Shaquill Griffin
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside has only seen 22 targets this season. He has turned those into 10 receptions for 169 yards and 1 touchdown. He has also seen five or fewer targets in each game this season. On those targets, Arcega-Whiteside has seen 392 air yards with an elite 17.8 aDOT. He has turned 4 red zone targets into 2 receptions for 22 yards and 1 touchdown.
Arcega-Whiteside has played 43% of his snaps as the Philadelphia Eagles right outside receiver this season. He’s expected to face off against Shaquill Griffin, who has played 96% of his snaps as the Seattle Seahawks left outside cornerback in 2019. Griffin has given up a 66% catch rate in 2019, but he has only been targeted on 16% of his routes covered. He has also held his opponents to 0.30 fantasy points and 1.45 yards per route covered. Griffin has graded out as the second best cornerback on this slate, according to PFF. Arcega-Whiteside may look like an appealing cheap option, but he should be avoided in this matchup.
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