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Matchups to Attack
Curtis Samuel vs LeShaun Sims
Curtis Samuel has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season. He has posted 27 receptions for 343 yards and 3 touchdowns on 54 targets. Samuel has also added 36 yards and 1 touchdown on only 5 carries in 2019. Samuel boasts 796 air yards with a 14.7 aDOT this season. He leads the team with 5 red zone targets, turning those into 3 receptions for 32 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his seven games, and he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag.
Samuel has played 50% of his snaps as the Carolina Panthers right outside receiver this season. He gets a matchup against LeShaun Sims, who has played 87% of his snaps as the Tennessee Titans left outside cornerback. Sims has been targeted on 15% of his routes covered in 2019, allowing his opponents to post a 67% catch rate against him. He has also given up 0.39 fantasy points and 1.92 yards per route covered this season. Sims has graded out the fourth worst cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). His inability to defend the deep ball plays into Samuel’s strengths. There aren’t many options around Samuel’s price tag that possess his upside.
Stefon Diggs vs Bashaud Breeland
Stefon Diggs has caught fire recently, posting 21 receptions for 453 yards and 3 touchdowns on 26 targets over his last three games. Over that span, he has scored 94.1 fantasy points. Through 8 total games in 2019, Diggs has posted a 37/706/4 line on 49 targets. He boasts 772 air yards with a dominant 15.8 aDOT, as well. Diggs has only seen 3 red zone targets this season, turning those into 1 reception for 11 yards and 1 touchdown. He has been playing as well as any wide receiver over the last three weeks, and that should continue this week.
Diggs has played the majority of his snaps (46%) as the Minnesota Vikings left outside receiver this season. He’s expected to get a matchup against Bashaud Breeland this week. Breeland has only played 13% of his snaps as the Kansas City Chiefs right outside cornerback, which could be a result of him shadowing opposing receivers this season. Breeland has only been targeted on 12% of his routes covered, while holding his opponents to a 55% catch rate. He is also allowing only 0.20 fantasy points and 1.13 yards per route covered in 2019. With that being said, Breeland has graded out as PFF’s fifth worst cornerback in the NFL this season. Diggs has found success in much more difficult matchups, and he should continue his hot streak in this game.
Danny Amendola vs Lamarcus Joyner
Danny Amendola has been a bit of a boom or bust option this season. He has posted 23 receptions for 304 yards and 1 touchdown on 32 targets in 3 of his games. He has recorded only 5 receptions for 43 yards on 7 targets in his other 3 games, though. With that being said, Amendola has scored 17.5 and 21.5 fantasy points in his last two games, and he has been a clear part of the game plan in recent weeks. The only concern is that he only owns an 8.9 aDOT, but that has kept his game efficient throughout the season.
Amendola has played 86% of his snaps as the Detroit Lions slot receiver in 2019. He’ll face off against Lamarcus Joyer, who has played 100% of his snaps as the Oakland Raiders slot corner. Joyer has given up a 68% catch rate, while being targeted on 14% of his routes covered. He has allowed his opponents to record 0.32 fantasy points and 1.40 yards per route covered in 2019. Joyer has graded out as the second worst cornerback in the NFL this season, per PFF. Amendola is a player that will likely go overlooked in favor of Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones, but he comes with tremendous upside for a low price tag this weekend.
Matchups to Avoid
Davante Adams vs Casey Hayward Jr.
Davante Adams has been out for a few weeks while he deals with turf toe. He’s expected to return to action this week, though. Through 4 games this season, Adams has posted 25 receptions for 378 yards. The majority of that production came against the Philadelphia Eagles. Adams has scored single-digit fantasy points in two of his four games. He has also only posted a 10.5 aDOT. Adams does possess six red zone targets, and it’s only a matter of time before he finds the end zone. With that being said, it could wait another week, as he gets a tough matchup and continues to work his way back from injury.
Adams has played 42% of his snaps as the Green Bay Packers right outside receiver, but that won’t matter this weekend. Casey Hayward is expected to shadow Adams throughout the game. Hayward has given up a 73% catch rate this season, while being targeted on 18% of his routes covered. He has held his opponents to 0.31 fantasy points and 1.50 yards per route covered in 2019, though. Hayward has also shadowed Corey Davis, Courtland Sutton, DeAndre Hopkins, and Marvin Jones Jr. this season, shutting each receiver down. He has graded out as PFF’s seventh best cornerback in the NFL, and he could find success in this matchup with Adams.
Mike Williams vs Jaire Alexander
Mike Williams has been a bit disappointing in 2019. He has recorded 26 receptions for 419 yards on 50 targets. With that being said, he is primed for a breakout, as he boasts 768 air yards with a 15.4 aDOT in 2019. Williams has also seen a team-high 10 red zone targets, turning those into only 2 receptions for 16 yards. He has seen plenty of opportunities, but has yet to truly capitalize on them. It’s only a matter of time before his breakout comes, but it may have to wait one more week in this matchup.
Williams has played 42% of his snaps as the Los Angeles Chargers slot receiver, but he’s expected to see the majority of his snaps as the right outside receiver this week. He’s expected to get a matchup against Jaire Alexander, who has played 76% of his snaps as the Green Bay Packers left outside cornerback. He has been targeted on 22% of his routes covered, while holding his opponents to a 50% catch rate. Alexander has also held his opponents to 0.31 fantasy points and 1.53 yards per route covered. He has graded out as the eighth best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. When Williams isn’t lining up across from Alexander, he’s likely to face off against Tramon Williams, who will be outlined below.
Keenan Allen vs Tramon Williams
Keenan Allen got off to one of the fastest starts in the NFL this season. He posted 29 receptions for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns (93.7 fantasy points) on 42 targets over his first 3 games. Since then, he has recorded 22 receptions for 213 yards (43.3 fantasy points) on 38 targets. Allen has seen 21 targets over his last 2 games, but has still struggled a bit to produce. On the season, he has seen 949 air yards with an 11.9 aDOT. Allen has also seen 9 red zone targets in 2019, posting 7 receptions for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns on those targets. He’s in a similar position to Mike Williams, where he will see opportunities, but could struggle in a tough matchup.
Allen has played the majority of his snaps (53%) as the Los Angeles Chargers slot receiver. He gets a matchup against Tramon Williams, who has played 79% of his snaps as the Green Bay Packers slot cornerback in 2019. Williams has only been targeted on 12% of his routes covered, holding his opponents to a 59% catch rate. He has allowed his opponents to record only 0.24 fantasy points and 1.35 yards per route covered against him this season. Overall, Williams has graded out as a top-12 cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Allen has been dealing with a hamstring injury, and he’ll be less than 100% entering this matchup.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
