Good evening Karma nation. Hopefully Week 8 was profitable for you! Unfortunately, the lock on Henry limited the amount of Cook I had, so it was a break even week for me. Thankfully, as I am writing this, Week 9 weather does not appear to be a major factor. I see some team stacks that stand out right away so let us optimize accordingly and make Week 9 a profitable one!
FIRST TEAM STACK OF THE WEEK: (Russell Wilson + Tyler Lockett)
This game has the highest game total of the week, currently at 55. This week you will hear a ton about Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and how the Seahawks are last in the league, allowing an atrocious 358.7 passing yards/game. However, the Seahawks average 34.3 points/game and our current Karma projection team total for them is at 33.6, while the Bills is at 26.9. Seattle is 2nd in the league for % of touchdowns through passing (81.25%) and Buffalo is 10th (69.57%). Russel Wilson continues to put up incredible lineup winning numbers! Wilson has averaged 29.04 fantasy points/game in his last three weeks as opposed to Allen’s 15.64. Seattle also leads the league in successful passing plays at 57%.
I do not expect the same absurd stats for Lockett as compared to what he produced against Arizona, but I do see a similar game plan. Lockett plays in the slot 73% of the time, and has one of the best WR matchups this week against Taron Johnson, who is Buffalo’s main slot cornerback. It appears one of the best cornerbacks in the game, Tre’Davious White will be defending Metcalf for majority of the game. The Bills are 5th most susceptible to a target depth range of 10-19 yards followed by 12th most of 0-9 yards. Lockett has 25% of his targets in 10-19-yard range and 58% of his targets within the 0-9-yard range. With White blanketing Metcalf, I fully expect more opportunities for Lockett and as many of you have seen when one flops and the other skyrockets.
The screenshot below shows that by taking Wilson + Lockett stack you are getting a stronger correlation and when you combine Wilson + Lockett projections you get 45.65 as opposed to Allen + Diggs 43.71. I am betting on the more consistent of the players and going Wilson + Lockett this week!
SECOND TEAM stack of the week: (Watson + HOU WR)
This will be an interesting AFC South matchup to say the least. Both teams are top ten in seconds/play so we are anticipating more plays leading to more opportunities. I advise to go with a simple Houston QB/WR team stack because after reviewing the slate I think there are a ton of great options and I want to make sure you have room to further optimize your lineups. Houston is 2nd in the league for passing play rate at 69% and 4th in the league for successful passing plays at 55%. The Jaguars are almost dead last in points allowed per game at 31.4. Jacksonville is 31st in defensive efficiency and lets not forget the last time these two teams met up Jacksonville allowed 359 passing yards. The Jaguars allow 281.9 passing yards/game which is the leagues 5th highest. The great thing about Houston is you know it is going to either be Cooks or Fuller. Cooks leads the team in target market share (MS) at 21.3% followed by Fuller’s 20%. However, Fuller leads the team in air yards (AY) with 90 per game as opposed to Cooks’ 71.6. Fuller is on fire right now, having scored a touchdown in his last 5 games. However, some would say Sidney Jones, Jaguars best cornerback, gave Fuller a tough time even though Fuller managed to grab a touchdown last time these two faced off. This could allow another opportunity for Cooks to go 8 receptions, 161 receiving yards, 1 touchdown like he did last time. When scanning the optimizer, the Watson + Cooks stack saves money, has a strong correlation, and provides higher value. I also locked in those two so you could see a possibility of other secondary stacks that would help create a stronger lineup. I cannot show it all but this stack allows you to have some huge upside.
Other candidates (Allen + BUF WR), (Cousins + MIN WR)
OVERWEIGHT: (Dalvin Cook)
This is another great matchup that screams lock for Cook! I will not be locking due to a bad taste left after Derrick Henry last week, but Cook will be my highest owned player in my player pool. Minnesota offensive line is 5th in adjusted line yards while Detroit’s defensive line is 24th in adjusted line yards allowed. Minnesota is 1st in rushing play % and 6th for % of rushing touchdowns. The Lions are second to last in fantasy points allowed to RBs at 32.6/game. Cook is second in the league for rushing yards/game (108.7), total rushing yards this season (652), and leads the league for running backs in yards per carry (5.3). Lastly, I know people are worried about a potential blowout with Stafford potentially out due to COVID, but rest easy when you know Minnesota is 7th in the league for % of running plays when up by 7 points or more. Our Karma projections have Cook at 113.45 rushing yards this week. It does not matter what percentile adjustment you are on, Dalvin Cook is still on top. I cannot say that he will top his stats from last week, but I do think he gives another monster performance!
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (David Montgomery)
I do not know if it is Chicago’s offensive line that cannot get lead blocks, or if David Montgomery is just not a great running back. After writing this Montgomery will probably go bonkers and have a career day, but I am still willing to put the hard fade on him. Chicago is 3rd in passing play % and 1st in % of touchdowns that were gained through passing (87.5%). Montgomery has 1 rushing touchdown this year. Say this week Montgomery hits his average for receptions and receiving yards (3 receptions & 25 receiving yards) giving 5.5 fantasy points. Assuming he does not score a touchdown, he would have to rack up 150 rushing yards just to achieve 20.5 fantasy points which is right at the top backs average projections. Much like I said at the top when the percentile filter is on 95% Montgomery only projects 26.1 it is just too difficult to reach his ceiling.
Final Thoughts
I am extremely excited for this week’s slate. The only game stack I would recommend is SEA vs BUF, other than that, my main strategy this week is sticking to smaller team stacks (2 man or 3 man team stacks). I believe there are too many great plays that focusing on a game will have you miss out on mini stacks that will be needed to take down a contest. Do not try and get cute fading Dalvin Cook cause of ownership. Eat the chalk and watch him rack up the yards. Say your goodbyes to David Montgomery because he may get some rushing attempts but will not get it past the goal line. As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week. If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you asap.
