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Matchups to Attack
Larry Fitzgerald vs Grant Haley
Larry Fitzgerald continues to produce, although he hasn’t flashed the same upside as he did early in the season. Through 6 games, he has posted 35 receptions for 427 yards and 2 touchdowns on 52 targets. Fitzgerald has seen 502 air yards this season, while recording a 9.7 aDOT. As his air yards have decreased, so has his upside. With that being said, Fitzgerald’s catch rate has increased with easier targets. Most importantly, he leads the Arizona Cardinals with seven red zone targets, turning those into three receptions for five yards and two touchdowns.
Fitzgerald has played almost exclusively in the slot in 2019, as he has seen 92% of his snaps as Arizona’s slot receiver. He’s expected to get a matchup against Grant Haley, who has played 99% of his snaps as the New York Giants slot corner this season. Haley has only been targeted on 9% of his routes covered, while struggling with a 79% catch rate. He has also allowed 0.26 fantasy points and 1.15 yards per route covered. Haley has graded out as a bottom-10 cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). The entire Arizona receiving group can be considered in this matchup, but Fitzgerald makes the best option.
Auden Tate vs Tre Herndon
Auden Tate has taken on a much larger role since Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills. Over his last 4 games, he has totaled 18 receptions for 255 yards and 1 touchdown on 34 targets. He has only seen 322 air yards with an 8.9 aDOT on the season, though. While Tate hasn’t necessarily been an elite option, he’s cheap and has shown flashes. He also leads the Cincinnati Bengals with eight red zone targets. He has recorded 4 receptions for 25 yards and 1 touchdown in the red zone, as well.
Tate has moved around the Cincinnati lineup throughout the 2019 season, but he has played the majority of his snaps (37%) as the left outside receiver. He’ll get a matchup against Tre Herndon, who has only played 23% of his snaps as the Jacksonville Jaguars right outside cornerback, but he is expected to play that position moving forward. Herndon has only given up a 55% catch rate this season, but he has been targeted on 23% of his routes covered. He has also given up 0.39 fantasy points and 1.76 yards per route covered in 2019. Herndon has graded out as PFF’s fifth worst cornerback in the NFL this season. Tate continues to progress as a young receiver, and he should see plenty of opportunities once again in this game.
John Brown vs Xavien Howard
John Brown has seen 39 targets this season, turning those into 28 receptions for 390 yards and 1 touchdown. He has seen 531 air yards to go along with an impressive 13.6 aDOT. Brown has also been relatively consistent, while flashing upside, as he has scored 9.5+ fantasy points in each of his 5 games this season. He has only seen one red zone target this season, but Zay Jones leads the team with three, and has been traded to the Oakland Raiders. While it isn’t a given, Brown could see more red zone opportunities, adding to his upside.
He has only played 33% of his snaps as the Buffalo Bills right outside receiver this season, but he’s expected to slide into that position a bit more this week. He’ll get a matchup against Xavien Howard, who is in a similar position to Brown. He has only played 36% of his snaps as the Miami Dolphins left outside cornerback, but that is where he’s expected to play this week, as he won’t be shadowing anyone. Howard has struggled with an 80% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered. He has also allowed his opponents to record 0.39 fantasy points and 1.60 yards per route covered against him this season. Howard owns name recognition, but he has graded out as the eighth worst cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Brown could go a bit overlooked because of this matchup, but he will have the advantage this weekend.
Matchups to Avoid
Corey Davis vs Casey Hayward Jr.
Corey Davis continues to underwhelm as an NFL receiver. He has posted only 16 receptions for 237 yards and 1 touchdown on 27 targets through 6 games. He has only scored double-digit fantasy points once this season. Davis has also failed to score fantasy points in one game in 2019. He has only seen 294 air yards, while recording a 10.9 aDOT. Most surprisingly, Davis has yet to see any red zone targets, while Jonnu Smith, David Quessenberry, and Darius Jennings have all recorded one red zone target this season.
Davis has played 42% of his snaps as the Tennessee Titans right outside receiver in 2019. That isn’t going to matter this week, as Casey Hayward Jr. is expected to shadow him throughout the game. Hayward has been targeted on 18% of his routes covered, allowing his opponents to post a 69% catch rate against him. He has held his opponents to 0.29 fantasy points and 1.28 yards per route covered, though. Hayward has graded out as PFF’s ninth best cornerback in the NFL this season. Davis will be dealing with a new quarterback, as well, as Ryan Tannehill will be taking over for Marcus Mariota. While this may not necessarily be a downgrade, it’s still better to take a wait and see approach on Davis.
Marquise Brown vs Shaquill Griffin
Marquise Brown has dealt with injuries this season, and he has only played in five games thus far. He has seen 39 targets, turning those into 21 receptions for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brown also boasts 539 air yards with a 13.8 aDOT. He leads the Baltimore Ravens with six red zone targets. He has posted 4 receptions for 22 yards and 1 touchdown on those targets, as well.
Brown has played the majority of his snaps (49%) as Baltimore’s right outside receiver. He’ll face off against Shaquill Griffin, who has played 95% of his snaps as the Seattle Seahawks left outside cornerback. He has given up a 64% catch rate, while being targeted on only 14% of his routes covered. Griffin has held his opponents to 0.19 fantasy points and 1.03 yards per route covered in 2019. He has graded out as a top-five cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Brown could still be dealing with an ankle injury, and while he possesses quite a bit of upside, this may be a week to avoid him.
Tyler Lockett vs Marlon Humphrey
Tyler Lockett continues to flash for the Seattle Seahawks, but he has struggled to consistently find volume in the offense. Through 6 games, he owns 35 receptions for 454 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 41 targets. He has posted 21 receptions for 233 yards and 1 touchdown in 2 games, though. Lockett enters this game with 461 air yards and an 11.2 aDOT, showing he is no longer strictly a deep threat. He has posted a 5/50/2 line on 6 red zone targets in 2019, as well.
Lockett has seen 71% of his snaps as Seattle’s slot receiver. He’ll face off against Marlon Humphrey, who has played only 24% of his snaps as the Baltimore Ravens slot corner. With that being said, Humphrey is expected to shadow Lockett throughout this game. The former has only given up a 47% catch rate in 2019, while being targeted on 15% of his routes covered. He has also held his opponents to 0.20 fantasy points and 1.01 yards per route covered this season. Overall, Humphrey has graded out as the 13th best cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF, and Lockett could struggle to find targets once again in this game.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
