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Matchups to Attack
Adam Thielen vs DeAndre Baker
The Minnesota Vikings have taken on a more run heavy offensive philosophy this season, and Adam Thielen has been a fantasy casualty of that. Through four games, he owns only 13 receptions for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 targets. He also owns a rushing touchdown this season. With that being said, Thielen has seen 295 air yards and a respectable 13.4 aDOT. He also recently criticized Minnesota’s inability to get the ball downfield after their loss to the Chicago Bear, suggesting he could be a major part of the offense this season, as Minnesota likely wants to keep their star receiver happy.
Thielen has played the majority of his snaps (45%) as the Vikings right outside receiver this season. He gets a matchup against DeAndre Baker, who has only played 35% of his snaps as the New York Giants left outside cornerback. With that being said, Janoris Jenkins isn’t expected to shadow anyone this week, meaning Baker will see extended time across from Thielen. The former has struggled during his rookie campaign, allowing a 73% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered. He has also allowed 2.93 yards and 0.56 fantasy points per route covered in 2019. Baker has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) second worst cornerback in the NFL this season. While Minnesota hasn’t been in love with throwing the ball this season, this is the matchup to do so. We can buy low on Thielen this weekend.
Julio Jones vs Lonnie Johnson Jr.
Julio Jones is coming off of his worst game of the season, but has still found plenty of success. Through four games, he has posted 23 receptions for 317 yards and 4 touchdowns on 37 targets. Jones also ranks fifth in the NFL with 474 air yards to go along with a 12.8 aDOT. Most importantly, he’s tied for the lead on the Atlanta Falcons with four red zone targets, seemingly curing his old touchdown woes.
Jones has played 63% of his snaps as Atlanta’s left outside receiver this season. He gets a great matchup against Lonnie Johnson Jr., who has played 69% of his snaps as the Houston Texans right outside cornerback in 2019. He has been targeted on 17% of his routes covered, while giving up a 67% catch rate. Johnson has also allowed his opponents to record 0.31 fantasy points and 1.41 yards per route covered. He has graded out as a bottom-three cornerback in the NFL, per PFF, and Jones will have one of the biggest WR/CB advantages on this slate. He’s due for a bounce back game, and comes with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Larry Fitzgerald vs Tony McRae
Larry Fitzgerald has seen his role decrease a bit over his last two games, but he hasn’t shown his age in 2019. He has recorded 23 receptions for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 targets. Through four games, Fitzgerald owns 335 air yards and a 9.3 aDOT. His aDOT has dropped a bit over his last two games, but that explains why his catch rate increased from 54.2% in his first two contests to 83.3% in his last two. Fitzgerald is expected to see a combination of easy targets and deep shots with Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd dealing with injuries, adding to his consistency and upside on this slate. He has also seen a team-high six red zone targets, while recording only two receptions although both went for touchdowns.
Fitzgerald has almost exclusively been a slot receiver this season, as he has played 94% of his snaps in the slot. He’s expected to get a matchup against Tony McRae, who has played 95% of his limited snaps as the Cincinnati Bengals slot corner. He has given up an 83% catch rate, while being targeted on 29% of his routes covered. McRae has allowed his opponents to post 0.40 fantasy points and 1.57 yards per route covered this season. He has graded out as the sixth worst cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Fitzgerlad could be forced into a larger target share because of injuries, and he makes an outstanding option for a surprisingly low price tag on this slate.
Matchups to Avoid
Amari Cooper vs Jaire Alexander
Amari Cooper has been enjoying an outstanding season in 2019. He has seen 29 targets through 4 games, posting 21 receptions for 286 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has seen 349 air yards with a 12 aDOT on those targets. Cooper has only seen three red zone targets this season, although he has scored three touchdowns on those targets. He was dealing with an ankle injury last week, and posted his worst line of the season with 5 receptions for 48 yards on 8 targets.
Cooper has played 44% of his snaps as the Dallas Cowboys right outside receiver this season. He’ll face off against Jaire Alexander, who has played 86% of his snaps as the Green Bay Packers left outside cornerback. Alexander has been targeted on 23% of his routes covered, although he has held his opponents to a 39% catch rate. He has also held his opponents to 0.19 fantasy points and 0.98 yards per route covered this season. Alexander has graded out as PFF’s best cornerback in the NFL this season, and Green Bay is a defense that should be attacked on the ground rather than through the air.
Emmanuel Sanders vs Casey Hayward Jr.
Emmanuel Sanders has returned from injury this season, and what he has accomplished has been nothing short of incredible. He owns 23 receptions for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns on 34 targets through 4 games in 2019. He has posted 334 air yards, while recording only a 9.8 aDOT this season. Sanders has seen eight red zone targets, though, which leads the NFL. He has turned those targets in two touchdowns. He has also seen five targets inside the 10-yard-line.
Sanders has played 50% of his snaps as the Denver Broncos right outside receiver. That won’t matter, though, as he’s expected to be shadowed by Casey Hayward Jr. Hayward will see his natural position for the majority of his snaps, though, as he has played the majority of his snaps as the Los Angeles Chargers left outside cornerback. He has given up a 75% catch rate, while being targeted on 20% of his routes covered in 2019. Hayward has also allowed 0.35 fantasy points and 1.40 yards per route covered. He has graded out as a top-five cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Sanders is dealing with a quad injury, although that may not limit him. Still, he could struggle in this particular matchup.
Terry McLaurin vs Jason McCourty
Terry McLaurin has looked elite through three games in his rookie season. He has recorded 16 receptions for 257 yards and 3 touchdowns on 24 targets. He also became the first receiver in NFL history to post 5+ catches and 1+ touchdown in each of his first three games. McLaurin has seen 368 air yards with a 15.3 aDOT in 2019, as well. Surprisingly, he leads the Washington Redskins with six red zone targets this season.
McLaurin has played 55% of his snaps as the Redskins left outside receiver, but that isn’t going to matter this week. The New England Patriots shadow their opponents on a weekly basis, and he’s expected to matchup against Jason McCourty. The latter has been targeted on 22% of his routes covered, while holding his opponents to a 45% catch rate. He has also held his opponents to only 0.22 fantasy points and 1.19 yards per route covered in 2019. McCourty has graded out as the sixth best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. It will be interesting to see who starts at quarterback for Washington, as that will affect McLaurin quite a bit. He has flashed with Case Keenum, while Dwayne Haskins was his quarterback at Ohio State. It looks as if Washington is leaning towards Colt McCoy, though, which would likely be the worst case scenario for McLaurin’s fantasy outlook.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
