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Matchups to Attack
Washington Redskins vs New York Giants
This play is mainly for Terry McLaurin and Paul Richardson, but Trey Quinn can also be lumped into this group. McLaurin has been the top receiver for the Washington Redskins, leading the team in targets (24), receptions (16), receiving yards (257), and receiving touchdowns (3). He’s the first receiver in NFL history to record at least five receptions and one touchdown in each of his first three games played. Richardson has seen a few ups and downs recently, but he’s coming off of his best game of the season on Monday night, recording 8 receptions for 83 yards and 1 touchdown. Quinn has cooled down a bit since scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he has seen six or more targets in each of his three games in 2019.
Richardson gets the best matchup, as he’ll spend the majority of his snaps (47%) across from DeAndre Baker, who has struggled early in his NFL career. In limited snaps, he has given up a 73% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered. Baker has also allowed 2.93 yards and 0.56 fantasy points per route covered this season. McLaurin gets a great matchup, as well, as he’s expected to face off against Janoris Jenkins. The latter has been targeted on 18% of his routes covered, while giving up a 66% catch rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post 1.64 yards and 0.36 fantasy points per route covered. Baker has graded out as the worst cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), while Jenkins has graded out as a well below average corner. Quinn gets a matchup against Grant Haley, who has been the top corner for the New York Giants, but he has been average at best. Overall, these receivers should rank McLaurin, Richardson, Quinn, but each one comes with upside in these particular matchups.
Larry Fitzgerald vs Jamar Taylor
Larry Fitzgerald has been the ageless wonder for the Arizona Cardinals, and that has been the case once again this season. He has recorded 18 receptions for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns on 31 targets in 2019. Fitzgerald also quietly ranks in the top-10 of the NFL in air yards this season. He owns a respectable 10.5 aDOT, and there’s very little reason to believe Fitzgerald will tail off after finding success in each of his first three matchups this season.
Fitzgerald has played 79% of his snaps as Arizona’s slot receiver, and that’s where he’ll see the majority of his snaps this week. He gets a matchup against Jamar Taylor, who is expected to play the role of slot corner for the Seattle Seahawks. Taylor has been targeted on 22% of his routes covered, allowing a 71% catch rate. He has also struggled quite a bit, giving up 0.44 fantasy points and 2.51 yards per route covered to his opponents. Taylor has graded out as the third worst cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Fitzgerald has found success in more difficult matchups than the one he has this week, and he should continue to play a major role in the Arizona offense, making him an elite option this weekend.
Mike Williams vs Eric Rowe
Mike Williams is in an interesting spot for the Los Angeles Chargers. Keenan Allen has demanded the majority of the targets. Austin Ekeler has also seen an increased role, leaving Williams with only 15 targets through three games. He has turned those into 8 receptions for 157 yards. More importantly, he boasts 261 air yards and a 17.4 aDOT. In other words, Williams boasts tremendous potential, as he’s a big play waiting to happen. He also ranks second on Chargers in red zone targets, although he has failed to capitalize on those targets in 2019.
Williams has moved all around the Los Angeles formation, but he has played the majority of his snaps (37%) as their left outside receiver. He’ll face off against Eric Rowe, who is still transitioning to the right outside cornerback spot for the Miami Dolphins after playing in the slot for the New England Patriots last season. He has struggled in both roles, allowing a 66% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered. Rowe also enters this game allowing 0.49 fantasy points and 1.99 yards per route covered. He has graded out as the fourth worst cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. The only major concern with Williams is that he might not see enough volume before this game turns into a blowout, but he does come with quite a bit of upside in this particular matchup.
Matchups to Avoid
John Brown vs Stephon Gilmore
John Brown has been enjoying a solid season for the Buffalo Bills, posting 18 receptions for 246 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets. He has seen 300 air yards and a 13.0 aDOT through three games, as well. Brown’s coming off of his worst game of the season, though, recording only 4 receptions for 51 yards on only 5 targets. He has played 84.8% of the Bills offensive snaps this season, and that percentage will likely stay similar in a game where Buffalo is likely to be playing from behind.
Brown has played 46% of his snaps as the right outside receiver, but that isn’t going to matter this week. Stephon Gilmore has consistently been shadowing the opposing teams WR1, and that is going to be the case once again. He has been targeted on 18% of his routes covered, allowing only a 58% catch rate. Gilmore has also held his opponents to only 0.25 fantasy points and 1.14 yards per route covered. He has graded out as PFF’s best cornerback in the NFL, and Brown should be avoided in this matchup, even with positive game script.
Adam Thielen vs Kyle Fuller
The Minnesota Vikings have taken on a run heavy offensive philosophy in 2019, and that has hurt the fantasy value of Adam Thielen. He’s the clear top option in the receiving game, as he’s leading the team in targets (16), receptions (11), receiving yards (173), and receiving touchdowns (2). With that being said, the volume simply hasn’t been there. Thielen does own a 13.9 aDOT, suggesting he possesses upside if his volume increases. That isn’t likely to be the case this week, though, as this game will likely feature low scoring and a slow pace.
Thielen has played 55% of his snaps as the Minnesota slot receiver, but he’s expected to spend more time as their right outside receiver this season. This week, he’s expected to spend time across from Kyle Fuller, who has played 99% of his snaps as the Chicago Bears left outside cornerback. He has given up a 65% catch rate, while being targeted on 19% of his routes covered. Fuller has also held his opponents to 0.31 fantasy points and 1.37 yards per route covered. He has graded out as the fourth best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF, and he could slow Thielen down in limited opportunities this week.
D.J. Chark vs Chris Harris
D.J. Chark has found quite a bit of success this season, leading some to call him the WR1 in Jacksonville. He leads the team with 15 receptions, 277 yards, and 3 touchdowns, while ranking third on the team with 18 targets. Chark has also seen only one red zone target in 2019, turning that into a four yard touchdown. He has played roughly 75% of the snaps for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, though, and he’s expected to see similar snaps in this game.
Chark has played 47% of his snaps as the Jaguars right outside receiver, and he’ll continue to spend plenty of time in that role. He gets a matchup against Chris Harris, who has spent the majority of his time in the slot throughout his career, but he is making the transition to the Denver Broncos left outside cornerback this season. Harris has given up a 70% catch rate, but he has been targeted on only 14% of his routes covered. He has also allowed only 0.27 fantasy points and 1.25 yards per routes covered. He has graded out as a top-five cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF, and Chark could struggle as a young receiver in a difficult matchup.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
