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Matchups to Attack
Breshad Perriman vs DeAndre Baker
Breshad Perriman is an interesting option this weekend. He’s far from a great receiver, as he only owns 2 receptions for 10 yards on 9 targets through 2 games. Surprisingly, he has only played in 56.3% of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers snaps. With that being said, Perriman is a big play waiting to happen. He has seen 125 air yards on his 9 targets, while boasting a 13.9 aDOT. This explosiveness is nothing new, though, as Perriman is averaging a healthy 15.2 yards per reception throughout his career.
He has only played 35% of his snaps as a right outside receiver, but that’s the position he’s seeing the majority of his snaps at for Tampa Bay. Most importantly, Perriman gets a matchup against DeAndre Baker, who has looked completely overmatched early in his NFL career. He has moved around the New York Giants formation, as Janoris Jenkins has shadowed Amari Cooper and John Brown the first two games this season. Baker has given up an 88% catch rate, while being targeted on 25% of his routes covered. He has also given up 1.07 fantasy points and 5.82 yards per route covered. Baker’s numbers will be forced to see positive regression as the season continues, but he has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) worst cornerback in the NFL. Chris Godwin can also be considered in this slot, as he could see some time against Baker in two receiver sets. Keep in mind, Perriman is a GPP option in deep leagues, but this is an ideal matchup to take advantage of.
Devin Smith vs Eric Rowe
Devin Smith returned to the NFL this season after being out of the league since 2016. He played only six offensive snaps against the New York Giants before seeing his role increase to 18 snaps last week. He turned those snaps in 3 receptions for 74 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 targets. Smith is expected to see an expanded role for the next few weeks, as Michael Gallup recovers from injury.
Smith has seen limited snaps, but he has played 56% of them as the Dallas Cowboys left outside receiver. He’s expected to get a matchup against Eric Rowe, who moved all over the lineup for the New England Patriots last season, but is expected to play the right outside corner role for the Miami Dolphins this season. He has been targeted on 19% of his routes covered, allowing a 77% catch rate. He has also struggled quite a bit, giving up 0.73 fantasy points and 2.98 yards per route covered. Rowe has graded out as the fifth worst cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. HH is giving up the fourth most yards per reception, and Smith is known for his speed. It’s a great matchup for the speedy receiver, and he should be a fairly popular option on this slate.
Will Fuller vs Brandon Facyson
Will Fuller is coming off of a dominant season, although he only played seven games. In those games, he has posted 32 receptions for 503 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 targets. He hasn’t been as good through two games this season, posting 6 receptions for 109 yards on 10 targets. With that being said, it’s clear that Fuller’s snaps won’t be affected by Kenny Stills, as he has played 94% of the offensive snaps through two weeks. Fuller could breakout soon, though, as he owns 243 air yards and a 24.3 aDOT in 2019.
He has played the majority of his snaps (45%) as the Houston Texans right outside receiver this season. He’ll get a matchup against Brandon Facyson, who is expected to draw the start for an injured Michael Davis. Facyson has only played 37% of his snaps as a left outside cornerback, but that’s the role he’s expected to play this week. He has given up a 74% catch rate, while being targeted on 29% of his routes covered. Facyson has also allowed his opponents to record 0.63 fantasy points and 2.63 yards per route covered against him, as well. He will be a major downgrade in the Los Angeles secondary, as he has graded out as a bottom-six cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Fuller is a bit of a boom or bust option, but he can take advantage of this matchup.
Matchups to Avoid
Robby Anderson vs Stephon Gilmore
Robby Anderson has been a casualty of the New York Jets odd franchise events this season. Through two games, he owns 7 receptions for 104 yards on 13 targets. His numbers are similar to his career averages at this point, but he has lacked potential touchdowns this season. That could be the case once again this week, as he’ll have Luke Falk playing as his quarterback with Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemian dealing with injuries.
Anderson moves around the formation, but he has played 47% of his snaps as the Jets left outside receiver. That won’t matter this week, though, as he’ll be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. The latter shadows on a weekly basis, meaning he’s comfortable moving anywhere around the formation. Gilmore has held his opponents to a 59% catch rate, while being targeted on 18% of his routes covered. He has also held his opponents to only 1.17 yards and 0.26 fantasy points per route covered. Gilmore has graded out as the best cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF, and there’s no reason to use Anderson with Falk under center in this matchup.
Keke Coutee vs Desmond King
Keke Coutee only played in six games (two starts) as a rookie, posting 28 receptions for 287 yards and 1 touchdown on 41 targets. He was projected as a breakout candidate by many, but another ill-timed injury has put that on hold. He was forced to miss the Houston Texans first game, while recording only two receptions for seven yards on four targets last week. Houston traded for Kenny Stills prior to the season, as well, and he has seemingly stolen some of Coutee’s snaps, as the latter saw only 44% of the Texans offensive snaps in his Week 2 return.
Coutee has played 74% of his snaps is the Houston slot receiver. He’ll get a terrible matchup against Desmond King, who has played 97% of his snaps as the Los Angeles Chargers slot corner. He has only been targeted on 11% of his routes covered, allowing his opponents to record a 67% catch rate. He has held his opponents to 0.19 fantasy points and 1.07 yards per route covered. Overall, King has graded out as PFF’s second best corner in the NFL. Coutee could see somewhat of a limited role with Stills in town, and there’s very little reason to use him in a difficult matchup.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs Chris Harris
Marquez Valdes-Scantling enjoyed a solid rookie season, posting 38 receptions for 581 yards and 2 touchdowns on 73 targets. After an offseason of Aaron Rodgers talking up his second year receiver, he was expected to breakout. Through two starts, he owns 7 receptions for 71 yards on 12 targets. More importantly, he has played 77% of the Green Bay Packers offensive snaps. He also owns 143 air yards and a respectable 11.9 aDOT in 2019.
Valdes-Scantling has only played 31% of his snaps as Green Bay’s right outside receiver, but that’s the role he’s moving into this game. He’ll get a matchup against Chris Harris, who is also changing positions. He played 59% of his snaps as the Denver Broncos slot corner, but he has transitioned to their outside left cornerback in 2019. Still, he has given up a 70% catch rate, while being targeted on only 16% of his routes covered. He has only allowed 0.27 fantasy points and 1.22 yards per route covered, as well. Harris has graded out as the third best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF, giving him the advantage against a young WR2. Rodgers and company will likely be looking towards better matchups in this game, limiting MVS potential this weekend.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
