Welcome to my NFL Week 17 WR/CB Matchups to Attack and Avoid! In this article, I will be analyzing three matchups that we should be looking to exploit and three matchups that we should be looking to shy away from this weekend. Use these plays to better build your DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!
Matchups to Attack
Greg Ward vs Corey Ballentine
Greg Ward has been playing a larger role in the offense recently, posting 15 receptions for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets over his last 3 games. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in 2 of those 3 games. He has also seen 5 red zone targets in 2019, turning those into 4 receptions for 32 yards and 1 touchdown.
Ward has played 61% of his snaps as the Philadelphia Eagles slot receiver this season. He’ll face off against Corey Ballentine, who has played 98% of his snaps as the New York Giants slot corner in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to record a 74% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered. Ballentine has also allowed his opponents to average 0.41 fantasy points and 1.77 yards per route covered in 2019. He has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) worst cornerback in the NFL this season. Nelson Agholor is currently questionable, although he didn’t practice on Thursday. If he’s able to take the field, he would make a great option over Ward, who would likely lose his slot job.
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Sterling Shepard vs Ronald Darby
Sterling Shepard has only played in 9 games this season, posting 52 receptions for 537 yards and 3 touchdowns on 73 targets. He has seen 690 air yards to go along with a 9.5 aDOT. Shepard has also seen a team-high 10 red zone targets, recording 5 receptions for 39 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has scored 42.7 DK points over his last 2 games, and comes with tremendous upside.
Shepard has only played 17% of his snaps as the New York Giants left outside receiver, but that’s where he’s expected to play this weekend. He’ll get a matchup against Ronald Darby, who has played 67% of his snaps as the Philadelphia Eagles right outside cornerback. Darby has been targeted on 24% of his routes covered in 2019, allowing a 67% catch rate. He has also struggled, giving up 0.54 fantasy points and 2.43 yards per route covered. Overall, he has graded out as the second worst cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. He has consistently allowed big plays, and Shepard is a player that comes with sneaky big play potential. He’s safe enough in this matchup to be used in cash, and comes with more than enough upside for tournaments, as well.
Tyler Boyd vs T.J. Carrie
Tyler Boyd has looked outstanding, even with inconsistent quarterback play. He has posted 85 receptions for 987 yards and 5 touchdowns through 15 games. He’s also coming off of a 36.8 DK point performance against the Miami Dolphins. Boyd has only seen 1,052 air yards with a 7.5 aDOT in 2019. He has turned 10 red zone targets into 6 receptions for 59 yards and 3 touchdowns, though.
Boyd has played the majority of his snaps (66%) as the Cincinnati Bengals slot receiver. He’ll matchup against T.J. Carrie, who has played 56% of his snaps as the Cleveland Browns slot corner. He has struggled, allowing a 75% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered. He has also allowed his opponents to record 0.35 fantasy points and 1.58 yards per route covered against him this season. Carrie has graded out as a bottom-12 cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Boyd has flashed tremendous upside, and he should continue to see plenty of volume in this particular matchup.
Matchups to Avoid
DeVante Parker vs Stephon Gilmore
DeVante Parker has been relatively healthy in 2019, and he’s enjoying a breakout season. He has posted 64 receptions for 1,065 yards and 9 touchdowns on 117 targets. Parker also ranks sixth in the NFL in air yards (1,619) to go along with a 13.8 aDOT. He has seen a team-high 12 red zone targets, posting 5 receptions for 64 yards and 5 touchdowns on those opportunities.
Parker has moved around the Miami Dolphins lineup throughout the season, but that won’t matter this weekend. He’s expected to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, who will travel with him throughout the game. Gilmore has held his opponents to a 48% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his routes covered in 2019. He has also held his opponents to 0.20 fantasy points and 1.06 yards per route covered this season. Overall, he has graded out as the second best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Parker saw seven targets in his first matchup against New England this season, failing to record a catch. While I don’t expect those drastic of results again, I do expect him to struggle in a tough matchup against Gilmore.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs Marlon Humphrey
JuJu Smith-Schuster has struggled through 11 games this season. He has posted 40 receptions for 546 yards and 3 touchdowns on 64 targets. Smith-Schuster owns 697 air yards with a 10.9 aDOT. Surprisingly, he has only seen six red zone targets in 2019. He has turned those into 3 receptions for 16 yards without finding the end zone.
Smith-Schuster has played the majority of his snaps (67%) as the Pittsburgh Steelers slot receiver. He’s expected to matchup against Marlon Humphrey, who has played 63% of his snaps as the Baltimore Ravens slot corner. He has been targeted on 17% of his routes covered, holding his opponents to a 58% catch rate. He is also allowing only 0.25 fantasy points and 1.15 yards per route covered in 2019. Humphrey has graded out as PFF’s 10th best cornerback in the NFL this season. Keep an eye on his status leading up to the game, though, as Baltimore is expected to bench multiple players this weekend. If he’s starting, Smith-Schuster will likely end a tough season on a down note. If Humphrey is ruled out, Smith-Schuster will make a high risk option, regardless.
Kenny Golladay vs Jaire Alexander
Kenny Golladay continues to be one of the best young wide receivers in the NFL. He boasts 62 receptions for 1,118 yards and 11 touchdowns through 15 games. Golladay also ranks fourth in the NFL in air yards (1,686), while possessing an elite 15.1 aDOT. He has seen a team-high 15 red zone targets, turning those into 8 receptions for 58 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Golladay has only spent 33% of his snaps as the Detroit Lions right outside receiver, but he’s expected to fill that role this weekend. He’ll face off against Jaire Alexander, who has played 76% of his snaps as the Green Bay Packers left outside cornerback. Alexander has been targeted on 19% of his routes covered, holding his opponents to a 51% catch rate. He has also held his opponents to only 0.27 fantasy points and 1.24 yards per route covered this season. Overall, he has graded out as a top-10 cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Golladay always comes with upside, but he could struggle in this particular matchup.
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