Good evening Karma nation! Unfortunately, last week was a dud. We saw three teams put up 40+ points and did not have exposure to those teams. Kamara did find the end zone but did not see the targets we were hoping for. The Colts put up 27 points, but Hilton was not one of the touchdowns. We did have some light with Kelce finding his way in the end zone for the third straight game. The takeaway from Week 15 is even with the research leading up to Sunday the inactive report could open great opportunity for value smash spots. A perfect example was Ezekiel Elliott getting ruled out about an hour before game time. This led to Tony Pollard who was a great price and provided great upside.
With the holidays going on, the Week 16 main slate only has ten games. The totals are not as high as some of the previous weeks, so it will be important to spend up when it is needed and target the right value spots. I will be setting my eyes on two running backs. Their teams are still in the playoff race and will need big performances and a little bit of luck to inch closer to clinching a playoff spot. We also have an NFC East matchup that has potential to be a shootout. We have reviewed, we have reflected, so lets get to optimizing!
OVERWEIGHT: (Miles Sanders) ($7,000 DK)
Jalen Hurts has been the talk of DFS for the past two weeks and rightfully so. However, the Cowboys are horrendous against the run and Sanders is showing high upside.
For the season, the Eagles average 37.1% rushing plays, however, the last three weeks the Eagles have averaged 44.1%. Sanders rushing attempts have gradually increased over the past three weeks, (10, 14, 18). When the Eagles are in the red zone Sanders name is being called having just under 50% of the team rushing attempts inside the red zone. According to Football Outsiders, Philadelphia is 2nd in the league for yards per carry with 5.0. Philadelphia cracks inside top ten with 125.8 rushing yards/game.
The Cowboys have allowed second most rushing yards to running backs this season allowing 1,870. That is 161.8 yards/game! The past three weeks they are averaging 181.7. Their defensive adjusted line yards (ALY) is dead last at 4.94. Along with the ALY, their defense is also last in yards before contact allowing 2.68. Sanders himself averages 4.8 yards per carry and 2.7 yards before contact. When it comes to facing Dallas, teams are zoning in on the run. Opposing offenses have averaged a league high 27.2 rushing attempts per game.
Jalen Hurts’ rushing may cause some concern but to me this indicates that Sanders will be lower owned than I think he should be. I expect Philly to control this game and get out to an early lead. While the Cowboys will have to be playing catch up, I anticipate the Eagles to rely on Sanders and pound the run game. If you do have concerns with Hurts taking away from Sanders you can stack both as Sanders still has a positive correlation with Hurts.
OVERWEIGHT: (David Montgomery) ($7,700 DK)
I remember writing the Week 9 Optimizer article and fading Montgomery. While he had a poor performance that week, his last 4 weeks he has averaged 28.77 fantasy points.
This season, the Bears are 30th in rushing play percentage only running the ball 36.6% of the time. However, this has drastically changed in the past three weeks. In the last three weeks the Bears are 3rd in the league in rushing plays running the ball 50.5% of the time. Montgomery averages 15.6 rushing attempts/game and saw a season high 32 attempts last week. Montgomery also has some receiver ability averaging 4.4 targets and 3.3 receptions per game.
Montgomery has another prime matchup against a Jacksonville defense that has major issues stopping the run. The Jaguars are 30th in the league allowing 146.5 rushing yards per game. Jacksonville also allows third most fantasy points, 29.8, to opposing running backs.
Karma projections have Montgomery as the number one running back this week and with the matchup and recent performances I understand why. There is positive correlation with Montgomery and the Chicago defense so do not be afraid to utilize that strategy as well.
Other candidates: (Austin Ekeler), (Patrick Mahomes), (Calvin Ridley)
GAME STACK of the week: (Philadelphia vs Dallas)
This game is featuring two of the fastest paced offenses. Dallas is number one with 23.41 seconds per play. Philadelphia is number four with 25.95 seconds per play. There will be plenty of opportunities for fantasy production. The Cowboys are allowing second most points per game averaging 30.9. The Eagles are 21st averaging 25.8.
With Hurts behind center I do not have much concerns with Philadelphia scoring as some may with Dallas. This season Dallas averages 24.2 points per game, however, the last three weeks they have been averaging 29.3. Andy Dalton has not looked horrible either as he has thrown touchdowns in five straight games and two touchdowns in each of his last three games. This game is all going to come down to if Dallas wants to play offense.
People will naturally flock toward the ATL/KC game given it is the highest game total on the slate. This should keep ownership in the PHI/DAL game in check. We could even see some plays at single digit ownership. There are numerous stacking options for this game, all reasonably priced, so do not be afraid to get creative.
Other candidates: (KC/ATL game stack), (HOU/CIN game stack)
FADE/UNDERWEIGHT: (Teddy Bridgewater $5,300 DK)
Washington’s defense is allowing 5th least points per game only allowing opposing offenses 21.1 points per game. They are also third in passing yards allowed only letting up 200.2 passing yards per game. Against quarterbacks Washington’s defense is 6th best only giving up 17.9 fantasy points per game.
Bridgewater has only thrown one touchdown in his last three games. He is not a fan of playing against Cover 4 as he has yet to throw a touchdown against Cover 4 coverage. Washington plays Cover 4 25% of the time and zone coverage 63% of the time.
Bridgewater projects as 10th best option at QB this week. Even though he may have some rushing upside I will be staying away from him.
Other candidates: (Ben Roethlisberger), (Giants)
Final Thoughts
Since Week 16 has game totals lower than usual I will anticipate less variance indicating playing the higher projected player. I am specifically talking about the QB and RB position.
I will see if the Dallas run defense is still broken and hope for a big game from Sanders. The increase in rushing plays from Chicago gives me a great feeling about Montgomery this week. There will be some PHI/DAL stacking incase this game becomes a shootout. Remember not to sleep on the “other candidates”.
As always, the NFL optimizer is a great tool to help increase your bankroll and make you a better player in DFS. I hope this article pointed you in a direction on where to start your builds for this week! If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on twitter @party_marty13 and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP!
