Welcome to my NFL Week 15 WR/CB Matchups to Attack and Avoid! In this article, I will be analyzing three matchups that we should be looking to exploit and three matchups that we should be looking to shy away from this weekend.
Matchups to Attack
Golden Tate vs Jomal Wiltz
Golden Tate has only played in eight games this season, but he has found quite a bit of success. Overall, he has posted 37 receptions for 461 yards and 4 touchdowns on 62 targets. He has also scored double-digit fantasy points in six of those eight games. Tate has only seen 544 air yards with an 8.8 aDOT in 2019. With that being said, he has seen 6 red zone targets, turning those into 5 receptions for 44 yards and 1 touchdown.
Tate has played 86% of his snaps as the New York Giants slot receiver in 2019. He gets a matchup against Jomal Wiltz, who has played 87% of his snaps as the Miami Dolphins slot receiver. Wiltz has struggled in 2019, allowing a 61% catch rate, while being targeted on 17% of his route covered. He has also allowed his opponents to record 0.42 fantasy points and 1.29 yards per route covered. Overall, Wiltz has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) worst cornerback in the NFL. Tate could go overlooked after recording only 1 reception for 11 yards last week, but he comes with tremendous upside this week.
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DeVante Parker vs Sam Beal
DeVante Parker was forced from the game last week with a concussion. He saw 10+ targets in each of his 4 games prior to his concussion. In those games, he averaged 6.3 receptions for 113.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 10.3 targets. Overall, Parker ranks 10th in the NFL in air yards (1,292) to go along with a 13.6 aDOT. He posted 4 receptions for 57 yards and 4 touchdowns on 9 red zone targets in 2019.
Parker has played the majority of his snaps (39%) as the Miami Dolphins right outside receiver this season. Sam Beal has seen limited snaps in 2019, but he’s expected to play left outside cornerback for the New York Giants this weekend. While limited, Beal has been targeted on 17% of his routes covered, giving up a 67% catch rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post 0.38 fantasy points and 0.91 yards per route covered in 2019. He has graded out as the third worst cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. New York’s corners have struggled throughout the season, and there’s very little reason to believe Beal will be the exception. Parker is the focal point of the Miami offense, assuming he is able to suit up this weekend.
Courtland Sutton vs Bashaud Breeland
Courtland Sutton has posted 59 receptions for 940 yards and 6 touchdowns on 97 targets this season. He has seen 1,196 air yards to go along with a 12.5 aDOT, as well. Sutton has seen a team-high 15 red zone targets in 2019. He owns 9 receptions for 69 yards and 3 touchdowns on those targets. He has quietly enjoyed an outstanding season while dealing with inconsistent quarterback play.
Sutton has played 52% of his snaps as the Denver Broncos left outside receiver. He gets a matchup against Bashaud Breeland, who has played only 10% of his snaps as the Kansas City Chiefs right outside cornerback. Still, he’s expected to fill that role this week. Breeland has only been targeted on 12% of his routes covered, allowing a 52% catch rate. He has also given up 0.18 fantasy points and 1.01 yards per route covered in 2019. Breeland has graded out as a bottom-six cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Sutton has dominated in significantly more difficult matchups, and he comes with tremendous upside, specifically with Drew Lock at quarterback.
Matchups to Avoid
Stefon Diggs vs Casey Hayward Jr.
Stefon Diggs has seen a plethora of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season. Through 13 games, he boasts 56 receptions for 997 yards and 5 touchdowns on 83 targets. He has also seen 1,227 air yards, posting an outstanding 14.8 aDOT. Diggs has only seen 5 red zone targets this season, recording 1 reception for 11 yards and 1 touchdown. He has flashed 45+ fantasy point upside in 2019, although he has scored single-digit fantasy points in 6 of his 13 games, as well.
Diggs has played 45% of his snaps as the Minnesota Vikings left outside receiver. That won’t matter this season, though. He’s expected to be shadowed by Casey Hayward Jr., who has been the Los Angeles Chargers best cornerback. He has given up a 74% catch rate, while being targeted on 16% of his routes covered. He has also held his opponents to 0.30 fantasy points and 1.30 yards per route covered in 2019. Overall, Hayward has graded out as the fifth best cornerback in the NFL, per PFF. Diggs is a boom or bust receiver that could struggle in this particular matchup.
Curtis Samuel vs Shaquill Griffin
Curtis Samuel has seen 89 targets in 2019, posting 45 receptions for 566 yards and 6 touchdowns. He ranks sixth in the NFL in air yards (1,386) to go along with a 15.6 aDOT. Samuel has also seen 10 red zone targets this season. He was able to turn those into 6 receptions for 50 yards and 5 touchdowns. Ultimately, he comes with quite a bit of untapped potential.
Samuel has played 47% of his snaps as the Carolina Panthers right outside receiver this season. He gets a matchup against Shaquill Griffin. The latter has played 96% of his snaps as the Seattle Seahawks left outside cornerback. He has been targeted on only 15% of his routes covered, holding his opponents to a 63% catch rate. Griffin has also allowed only 0.25 fantasy points and 1.27 yards per route covered. Overall, he has graded out as PFF’s seventh best cornerback in the NFL. While Samuel boasts tremendous upside, this is a matchup to avoid him.
Tyler Boyd vs Jonathan Jones
Tyler Boyd posted 73 receptions for 833 yards and 3 touchdowns on 119 targets this season. He has only seen 874 air yards with a 7.3 aDOT in 2019. Boyd hasn’t been a massive part of the red zone this season either. He has seen 7 red zone targets, turning those into 5 receptions for 56 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has been heating up over his last three games, as well.
Boyd has played 69% of his snaps as the Cincinnati Bengals slot receiver, but that won’t matter this week. He’ll be shadowed by Jonathan Jones, who has played 84% of his snaps as the New England Patriots slot corner. Jones has held his opponents to a 47% catch rate, while being targeted on only 16% of his routes covered. He has also held his opponents to 0.23 fantasy points and 1.10 yards per route covered this season. He has graded out as a top-15 cornerback in the NFL, according to PFF. Boyd’s lack of big play potential makes him a risky option in such a difficult matchup this weekend.
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